000 AXNT20 KNHC 080559 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sun Sep 8 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Wave and Low Pressure Over the Yucatan Peninsula: An area of low pressure located over the Bay of Campeche near 19N92W is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. A tropical wave is also over the Bay of Campeche extending from 24N92W south-southwestward across Mexico. Scattered moderate to strong convection is south of 22N between 91W and 96W, including inland over Mexico. This disturbance is forecast to drift slowly northward during the next several days while it interacts with a frontal boundary. Environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form while the system moves generally northward near or along the Gulf coast of Mexico and Texas through the middle of next week. This disturbance has a HIGH chance of tropical formation in the next 48 hours. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: As of 0000 UTC, a stationary front from just N of Tampa Bay near 29N83W to 1002 mb low pres in the NW Gulf near 26.5N94W continues to the SW Gulf near 19.5N97W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 24N to 29N between 85W and 94W. N to NE winds of 25-35 kt, with frequent gusts of 40 kt are occurring along with seas of 10-16 ft. Frequent gale force gusts will persist in the W-central Gulf through at least Mon. Sustained gale force winds offshore Veracruz will also persist into at least Mon. Very large seas will also continue across these areas through early next week while the frontal system lingers in the Gulf waters. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on the tropical wave over the Bay of Campeche. A tropical wave in the central Atlantic is nearly stationary along 42.5W, from 03N to 19N. 1010 mb low pressure is along the wave axis near 12.7N42.5W. Convection is described in the monsoon trough/ITCZ section below. A tropical wave in the Tropical N Atlantic is along 63W, from 21N southward to eastern Venezuela, and is also nearly stationary. Scattered moderate convection is noted near and north of the Lesser Antilles, generally from 14N to 21N between 58W and 63W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The Monsoon Trough enters the Atlantic from the west coast of Africa near 13N17W and continues through aforementioned low pressure near 12.7N42.5W to 12N52W. The ITCZ then continues from 12N52W to 16N60W. Scattered moderate convection is observed via satellite generally along and within 300 nm south of both the monsoon trough and ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on a TROPICAL WAVE in the Bay of Campeche, an ongoing GALE WARNING, and the stationary front across the basin. East of 90W, away from the influence of the GALE WARNING and TROPICAL WAVE, gentle to moderate SE to E winds and 2-5 ft seas are noted. For the forecast, frequent gale force gusts will persist in the W-central Gulf through at least Mon. Sustained gale force winds offshore Veracruz will also persist into at least Mon. Meanwhile, a weak 1003 mb low pres near 19N92.5W is along a tropical wave. This disturbance is forecast to drift slowly northward during the next several days while it interacts with the frontal boundary. Environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form while the system moves generally northward near or along the Gulf coast of Mexico and Texas through the middle of next week. Interests along the western Gulf of Mexico coast should closely monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of development, expect increasing winds and seas over much of the western Gulf through the week. Mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail SE of the features. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the TROPICAL WAVES section for information on a TROPICAL WAVE in the E Caribbean. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted in the SW Caribbean from the coasts of Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and Panama east to 72W and and north to 14N. A weak subtropical ridge allows for mainly gentle to moderate trades across the Caribbean, and 2-5 ft seas. For the forecast, a tropical wave moving across the eastern Caribbean will reach Hispaniola Sun night and then continue to move across the central and western Caribbean through the end of the week. Otherwise, moderate to fresh winds will pulse in the south- central Caribbean and offshore Honduras, reaching strong speeds in the Gulf of Honduras Sun evening into early Mon. Mainly gentle to moderate trades will prevail elsewhere. Slight to moderate seas will prevail across the basin. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the TROPICAL WAVES section for details on convection northeast of the Lesser Antilles. A stationary front extends from an intensifying low pressure in the NW Atlantic to NE Florida, resulting in scattered showers along and within 100 nm south of the front. The remainder of the Atlantic is characterized by a weak subtropical ridge, which allows for gentle to moderate trades and moderate seas across much of the basin. Trades may reach locally fresh speeds north of the Leeward Islands and north of the Greater Antilles, per recent scatterometer data. For the forecast W of 55W, a stationary front offshore NE Florida will linger through Sun night. A cold front offshore of the Carolinas will push S of 31N Mon evening merging with the stationary front and then stalling offshore NE Florida through mid-week. Expect increasing winds and seas behind the cold front. Across the remainder SW North Atlantic waters, winds should remain gentle to moderate, except S of 25N and E of the Bahamas where moderate to locally fresh winds are forecast through Mon. Mainly moderate seas will prevail through mid-week. $$ Adams