000
AXNT20 KNHC 080908
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Sep 8 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0600 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Western Gulf of Mexico (AL91): Recent satellite wind data indicate
a broad area of low pressure is located over the Bay of Campeche
near 19.5N93W at 1003 mb. The low is producing disorganized 
showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico 
while interacting with a frontal boundary. Scattered moderate 
isolated strong convection has developed within 240 nm in the NE 
quadrant of the low. A tropical wave is just west of the low near 
94W from 22N southward, with a large are of numerous strong 
convection from 17N to 22N between 94W and 98W. Winds closest to 
the low are near 20 kt with seas of around 6 ft. This system is 
forecast to drift slowly northwestward during the next couple of 
days, and environmental conditions are expected to become more 
conducive for development. A tropical depression is likely to form
while the system moves generally northward near or along the Gulf
coast of Mexico and Texas through the middle of the week. 
Interests along the western Gulf Coast should closely monitor the 
progress of this system. This disturbance has a HIGH chance of 
tropical formation in the next 48 hours. Please refer to the 
latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more
details.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A stationary front from just N of 
Tampa Bay near 29N83W to 1002 mb low pres in the NW Gulf near 
26.5N94W continues to the SW Gulf near 18.5N95W. Scattered 
moderate to strong convection is from 25N to 28N between 84W and 
94W. A recent ASCAT scatterometer pass showed gale force winds 
from the NW Gulf zone southward across the W-central Gulf to the 
SW Gulf W of 94W, highest winds around 40 kt in the SW Gulf. Peak 
seas of up to 18 ft are occurring near the 40 kt winds. Gale force
winds in the NW Gulf zone should have diminished to 30 kt, while 
they are forecast to persist in the W-central and SW Gulf zones 
through at least tonight. Beyond that, conditions will be 
dependent on what occurs with the broad area of low pressure 
(AL91) in the Bay of Campeche near 19.5N93W. Very large seas are 
forecast to persist across these areas through the early part of 
the week. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the 
National Hurricane Center at website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on
the tropical wave over the Bay of Campeche.

A tropical wave in the central Atlantic is nearly stationary along
43.5W, from 03N to 19N. 1010 mb low pressure (AL92) has detached 
from the wave axis and is near 13N42.5W. Convection is described 
in the monsoon trough/ITCZ section below. Winds near the low are
currently around 20 kt with seas up to around 7 ft. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for additional development of this 
system, and a tropical depression could form while the system 
meanders over the central tropical Atlantic through Mon and then 
moves generally westward at about 10 kt through the rest of the 
week. This system has a LOW chance of tropical formation in the 
next 48 hours and MEDIUM change through the next 7 days.

A tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean Sea is along 64W, from 
22N southward to eastern Venezuela, and is moving very slowly
around 5 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted near and 
north of the Lesser Antilles, generally from 14N to 22N between 
57W and 62W.
 
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic from the west coast of 
Africa near 13N17W and continues through aforementioned low 
pressure near 13N42.5W to 12N52W. The ITCZ then continues from 
12N52W to 16N60W. Scattered moderate convection is observed via 
satellite generally along and within 180 nm either side of the
monsoon trough and ITCZ.
 
GULF OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on a
LOW PRES (AL91) in the Bay of Campeche, an ongoing GALE WARNING, 
and the stationary front across the basin.

East of 90W, away from the influence of the GALE WARNING and
LOW PRES (AL91), moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds and 2-5 
ft seas are noted.

For the forecast, a stationary front from just N of Tampa Bay 
near 29N83W to across the northern waters to weakening 1003 mb low
pres near 25N95W continues to the SW Gulf near 18.5N95W. Gale 
force winds are forecast to persist W of the front in the 
W-central and SW Gulf through at least Mon night with very large 
and dangerous seas. Meanwhile, a broad 1003 mb low pres is near 
19.5N93W with a tropical wave to the W near 94W. This system is 
forecast to drift slowly NW during the next couple of days, with a
high chance of tropical cyclone formation. A tropical depression 
is likely to form while the system moves generally northward near 
or along the Gulf coast of Mexico and Texas through the middle of 
the week. Interests along the western Gulf Coast should closely 
monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of development, 
expect increasing winds and seas over much of the western Gulf 
through the at least mid-week. Mainly gentle to moderate winds and
slight to moderate seas will prevail SE of the features. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the TROPICAL WAVES section for information on a
TROPICAL WAVE in the E Caribbean.

Elsewhere, only isolated showers and thunderstorms are noted. A 
weak subtropical ridge allows for mainly gentle to moderate trades
across the Caribbean, locally fresh offshore eastern Honduras,
with 2-5 ft seas across the basin.

For the forecast, a tropical wave moving across the eastern 
Caribbean will reach Hispaniola by early Mon, then continue to 
move across the central and western Caribbean through the end of 
the week. Otherwise, moderate to fresh winds will pulse in the 
south- central Caribbean and offshore Honduras, reaching strong 
speeds in the Gulf of Honduras this evening into early Mon. Mainly
gentle to moderate trades will prevail elsewhere. Slight to 
moderate seas will prevail across the basin.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the TROPICAL WAVES section for details on convection
northeast of the Lesser Antilles and on low pressure (AL92).

A stationary front extends from an intensifying low pressure in 
the NW Atlantic to NE Florida, resulting in scattered showers
along and within 120 nm south of the front. The remainder of the 
Atlantic is characterized by a weak subtropical ridge, which 
allows for gentle to moderate trades and moderate seas across much
of the basin. Trades may reach locally fresh speeds north of the 
Leeward Islands and north of the Greater Antilles, per early
scatterometer data. 

For the forecast W of 55W, a stationary front offshore NE Florida
will linger through at least tonight. A cold front offshore of 
the Carolinas will push S of 31N Mon evening merging with the 
stationary front and then stalling offshore NE Florida through 
mid-week. Expect increasing winds and seas behind the cold front. 
Across the remainder SW North Atlantic waters, winds should remain
gentle to moderate, except S of 25N and E of the Bahamas where 
moderate to locally fresh winds are forecast through Mon. Mainly 
moderate seas will prevail through mid-week. 

$$
Lewitsky