000 AXNT20 KNHC 081803 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sun Sep 8 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1755 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Bay of Campeche (AL91): An elongated area of low pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico continues to produce a large area of showers and thunderstorms. Satellite-derived winds show this system does not yet have a well-defined center, but is producing winds of 40 kt on its western side. Seas near this low pressure are moderate to rough. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development and a tropical storm is expected to form during the next day or so. The system is forecast to move generally northwestward and then northward near or along the Gulf coast of Mexico, upper Texas, and Louisiana coasts with additional strengthening possible by the middle of this week. Interests along the Gulf coast of Mexico, upper Texas, and Louisiana coasts should closely monitor the progress of this system. Tropical Storm Watches could be required for portions of the coast of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas later this afternoon or tonight, with additional watches possible along the coast of Texas and Louisiana later tonight or Monday. This disturbance has a HIGH chance of tropical formation in the next 48 hours. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A stationary front extends from NW Florida to a 1005 mb low pres in the NW Gulf near 24N96W. A surface trough extends south of the low to the SW Gulf. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 24N to 29N and between 85W and 96W. A recent ASCAT scatterometer pass showed near gale to gale force winds over the western Gulf, with the highest winds around 40 kt in the SW Gulf. Peak seas of up to 21 ft are occurring near the 40 kt winds. Gale force winds are forecast to persist in the W-central and SW Gulf zones through at least tonight. Beyond that, conditions will be dependent on what occurs with the broad area of low pressure (AL91) in the Bay of Campeche. Very large seas are forecast to persist across these areas through the early part of the week. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. Central Atlantic (AL92): Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure over the central tropical Atlantic continue to show signs of organization. Fresh to strong force winds are found north of the center. Seas in these waters are 5-8 ft. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development of this system over the next couple of days, and a tropical depression is now likely to form during that time while the system meanders over the central tropical Atlantic. By the middle of this week the system should begin moving more westward at around 10 mph through the rest of the week. This system has a MEDIUM chance of tropical formation in the next 48 hours and a HIGH change through the next 7 days. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on the tropical wave over the Bay of Campeche. A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 45W, south of 20N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Convection near this wave is associated with AL92. An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 67W, south of 22N, moving 10-15 kt. A few showers are observed near the trough axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W to 14N30W to a 1010 mb low pres (AL92) near 13N43W and to 12N53W. The ITCZ stretches from 12N53W to 16N60W. Scattered moderate convection is present from 07N to 16N and east of 37W. Similar convection is found within 120 nm on both sides of the monsoon trough and ITCZ between 50W and 63W. GULF OF MEXICO... Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on LOW PRES (AL91) in the Bay of Campeche and an ongoing GALE WARNING in the western Gulf waters. In the rest of the Gulf, generally dry conditions are prevalent, along with moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas.. For the forecast, a stationary front from Panama City Florida to across the northern waters to weakening 1005 mb low pressure near 24N95W, then is dissipating to Tuxpan, Mexico. Gale force winds persist off the coast of Mexico between Tampico and Veracruz, with rough to very rough seas. Numerous thunderstorms are active farther south over the western Bay of Campeche associated with a developing low pressure area near 20N94W. This system is forecast to drift slowly northwestward during the next couple of days, and environmental conditions are expected to become conducive for additional development. A tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple of days as the system moves generally northwestward and then northward near or along the Gulf coast of Mexico and Texas through the middle of the week. Interests along the western and northwestern Gulf Coast should closely monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of development, expect continued strong winds and rough seas over much of the western Gulf through the at least mid-week. Mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail SE of the features. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the TROPICAL WAVES section for information on a TROPICAL WAVE in the E Caribbean. Elsewhere, the interaction between an upper level trough that extends from the Bahamas to Central America and the eastern Pacific monsoon trough results in scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the SW Caribbean waters, especially south of 15N. The storm activity is also impacting Panama. Farther east, a few showers are found in the NE Caribbean, affecting the nearby islands. Generally drier conditions are noted in the rest of the Caribbean. A 1025 mb high pressure system over the central United States extends into the Caribbean Sea, supporting moderate to locally fresh easterly winds in the central and NW Caribbean. Seas in these waters are 3-5 ft. Light to gentle easterly winds and slight seas prevail in the rest of the basin. For the forecast, a tropical wave moving across the eastern Caribbean will reach Hispaniola by early Mon, then continue to move across the central and western Caribbean through the end of the week. Otherwise, moderate to fresh winds will pulse in the south- central Caribbean and offshore Honduras, reaching strong speeds in the Gulf of Honduras this evening into early Mon. Mainly gentle to moderate trades will prevail elsewhere. Slight to moderate seas will prevail across the basin. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the TROPICAL WAVES section for details on low pressure (AL92). Divergence aloft and surface trough over central Florida support scattered showers in the waters off NE Florida, especially north of 30N. The remainder of the SW North Atlantic is dominated by the subtropical ridge, sustaining moderate or weaker winds and seas of 4-7 ft. Farther east, a weak surface trough extends from a 1019 mb low near 31N44W to 30N52W. A few showers are seen near the trough axis. The rest of the tropical Atlantic is under the influence of a strong high pressure system near 50N37W, maintaining moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas. For the forecast W of 55W, a few thunderstorms remain active along a trough off northeast Florida. A cold front offshore of the Carolinas will push S of 31N Mon evening merging with the trough and then stalling offshore NE Florida through mid-week. Expect increasing winds and seas behind the cold front. Across the remainder SW North Atlantic waters, winds should remain gentle to moderate, except S of 25N and E of the Bahamas where moderate to locally fresh winds are forecast through Mon. Mainly moderate seas will prevail through mid-week. $$ Delgado