000 AXNT20 KNHC 082345 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sun Sep 8 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Bay of Campeche (AL91): Potential Tropical Cyclone Six is centered near 21.9N 94.7W at 08/0000 UTC or 280 nm SSE of mouth of The Rio Grande, moving NW at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Seas near PTC-Six are moderate to rough, and 12-ft seas extend up to 240 NM in the NW quadrant and 180 NM in the southwest quadrant. A slow northwestward to northward motion is expected over the next day or so, followed by a faster motion to the northeast beginning late Tuesday. On the forecast track, the disturbance is expected to move just offshore of the northern Gulf Coast of Mexico through Tuesday, and approach the Upper Texas and Louisiana coastline on Wednesday. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect from Barra del Tordo northward to the Mouth of the Rio Grande. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Six NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A stationary front extends from NW Florida to a 1005 mb low pres in the NW Gulf near 24N96W. A surface trough extends south of the low to the SW Gulf. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 24N to 29N and between 85W and 96W. Gale force winds are occurring over the western Gulf, with the highest sustained winds around 40 kt. Peak seas of up to 16 ft are occurring near the 40 kt winds. Gale force winds are forecast to persist in the W-central and SW Gulf zones through at least tonight. Beyond that, conditions will be dependent on what occurs with Potential Tropical Cyclone Six (AL91) in the Bay of Campeche. Very large seas are forecast to persist across these areas through the early part of the week. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. Central Atlantic (AL92): Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure over the central tropical Atlantic have changed little in organization since earlier today. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development during the next couple of days, and a tropical depression is likely to form during that time while the system meanders over the central tropical Atlantic. By the middle of the week, the system should begin moving more westward at around 10 mph. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave in the central Atlantic is along 47W, south of 20N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Convection near this wave is associated with AL92. An tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean Sea is along 68W, south of 21N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. A few showers are observed near the trough axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 12N17W to a 1012 mb low pressure near 13N33W to a 1009 mb low pres (AL92) near 13N43W and to 12N53W. The ITCZ stretches from 12N53W to 15N61W. Scattered moderate convection is present from 10N to 15N and east of 37W. Similar convection is found within 120 NM on both sides of the monsoon trough and ITCZ between 50W and 63W. GULF OF MEXICO... Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIX (AL91) in the Bay of Campeche and an ongoing GALE WARNING in the western Gulf waters. In the rest of the Gulf, gentle to moderate SE winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, expect continued strong winds and rough seas over much of the western Gulf through the at least mid-week. Mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail SE of the features. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the TROPICAL WAVES section for information on a TROPICAL WAVE in the E Caribbean. Elsewhere, the eastern Pacific monsoon trough is resulting in scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the SW Caribbean waters, especially south of 14N. Farther east, a few showers are found in the NE Caribbean, affecting the nearby islands. Generally drier conditions are noted in the rest of the Caribbean. A 1025 mb high pressure system over the central United States extends into the Caribbean Sea, supporting moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds and seas of 3-5 ft in the central and NW Caribbean. Light to gentle easterly winds and slight seas prevail in the rest of the basin. For the forecast, a tropical wave moving across the eastern Caribbean will reach Hispaniola by early Mon, then continue to move across the central and western Caribbean through the end of the week. Otherwise, moderate to fresh winds will pulse in the south-central Caribbean and offshore Honduras, reaching strong speeds in the Gulf of Honduras tonight into early Mon. Mainly gentle to moderate trades will prevail elsewhere. Slight to moderate seas will prevail across the basin. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the TROPICAL WAVES section for details on low pressure (AL92). Divergence aloft and a surface trough over central Florida support scattered showers in the waters off NE Florida, especially north of 28N. The remainder of the SW North Atlantic is dominated by the subtropical ridge, sustaining moderate or weaker winds and seas of 4-7 ft. Farther east, a weak surface trough extends from a 1019 mb low near 31N43W to 31N54W. A few showers are seen near the trough axis. The rest of the tropical Atlantic is under the influence of a strong high pressure system near 49N35W, maintaining moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas. For the forecast W of 55W, a few thunderstorms remain active along a trough off northeast Florida. A cold front offshore of the Carolinas will push S of 31N Mon evening merging with the trough and then stalling offshore NE Florida through mid-week. Expect increasing winds and seas behind the cold front. Across the remainder SW North Atlantic waters, winds should remain gentle to moderate, except S of 25N and E of the Bahamas where moderate to locally fresh winds are forecast through Mon. Mainly moderate seas will prevail through mid-week. $$ ADAMS