000 AXNT20 KNHC 090539 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Mon Sep 9 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Potential Tropical Cyclone Six is centered near 21.9N 94.7W at 09/0300 UTC or 280 nm SSE of mouth of The Rio Grande, moving NNW at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Tropical-storm- force winds extend up to 160 NM in the NW quadrant, and up to 140 NM in the SW quadrant. Seas near PTC-Six are moderate to rough, and 12-ft seas extend up to 210 NM in the SE, SW, and NW quadrants. Seas are very rough to high W of 93W and S of 24N. A slow northwestward to northward motion is expected over the next day or so, followed by a faster motion to the northeast beginning late Tuesday. On the forecast track, the disturbance is expected to move just offshore of the northern Gulf Coast of Mexico through Tuesday, and approach the Louisiana and Upper Texas coastline on Wednesday. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Six NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Central Atlantic (AL92): Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure over the central tropical Atlantic have changed little in organization since earlier today. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development during the next couple of days, and a tropical depression is likely to form during that time while the system meanders over the central tropical Atlantic. By the middle of the week, the system should begin moving more westward at around 10 mph. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave in the central Atlantic is along 48W, south of 20N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Convection near this wave is associated with the monsoon trough. An tropical wave in the central Caribbean Sea is along 70W, south of 21N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. A few showers are observed near the trough axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 12N16W to a 1012 mb low pressure near 12.5N32.5W to a 1009 mb low pres (AL92) near 13.5N42W and to 12N52W. The ITCZ stretches from 12N52W to 13N61W. Scattered moderate convection is observed via satellite generally along and within 250 NM north/south of both the monsoon trough and ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIX (AL91) in the Bay of Campeche. A stalled frontal boundary extending from a frontal low near 23N95W across the northern Gulf and into the Big Bend of Florida, as well as a pair of surface troughs on either side of the front continue to support widely scattered moderate convection across portions of the Gulf north of 24.5N. Recent scatterometer data indicates fresh to strong NE winds north of the front and west of 90W, and moderate to fresh E to SE winds south of the front and west of 90W. Seas to the N and W of the front west of 90W are 6-10 ft. In the rest of the Gulf E of 90W, a weak pressure gradient supports gentle to moderate E winds and slight seas. For the forecast, Potential Tropical Cyclone Six will move to 22.5N 95.1W Mon morning, 23.7N 95.7W Mon evening, 25.0N 96.0W Tue morning, 26.2N 95.7W Tue evening, 28.0N 94.6W Wed morning, and inland to 29.9N 93.1W Wed evening. Six will become extratropical as it moves to 34.5N 90.7W late Thu. In addition, associated rough to very rough seas will persist off the coast of Veracruz and Tamaulipas through late Mon. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish across the Gulf Thu and Fri. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the TROPICAL WAVES section for information on a TROPICAL WAVE in the E Caribbean. Elsewhere, the eastern Pacific monsoon trough is resulting in scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the SW Caribbean waters, especially south of 14N. Farther east, an upper low is interacting with the nearby ITCZ to help generate scattered moderate convection across the Greater and Lesser Antilles. Otherwise, a weak pressure gradient across the Caribbean is supporting gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas of 3-5 ft in the central and eastern Caribbean. The SW Caribbean, per scatterometer data and recent wave analysis, is seeing moderate to locally fresh E winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft. For the forecast, a tropical wave moving across the eastern Caribbean from the Dominican Republic southward will move across the central and western Caribbean through the end of the week. Fresh to strong winds will pulse offshore eastern Honduras tonight. Otherwise, moderate to fresh winds will pulse in the south- central Caribbean with mainly gentle to moderate trades elsewhere. Slight to moderate seas will prevail across the basin. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details on an area of low pressure designated as AL92. A stalled frontal boundary and a surface trough over central to northern Florida support scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the waters off NE Florida, especially north of 28N. The remainder of the SW North Atlantic is dominated by the subtropical ridge, sustaining moderate or weaker winds and seas of 4-7 ft. Locally fresh winds are indicated via scatterometer data immediately north of the Greater Antilles. For the forecast W of 55W, a cold front offshore of the Carolinas will push S of 31N Mon evening merging with the stationary front and then stalling offshore NE Florida through mid-week. Expect increasing winds and seas behind the cold front. Across the remainder SW North Atlantic waters, winds should remain gentle to moderate, except S of 25N and E of the Bahamas where moderate to locally fresh winds are forecast through Mon night. Mainly slight to moderate seas will prevail through the week. $$ Adams