000 AXNT20 KNHC 090908 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Mon Sep 9 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0600 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Potential Tropical Cyclone Six is centered near 22.2N 94.8W at 09/0900 UTC or 260 nm SSE of mouth of The Rio Grande, moving NNW at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas are currently around 19 ft. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 19N to 27N between 93W and 98W. A slow northwestward to northward motion is expected over the next day or so, followed by a faster motion to the northeast beginning late Tue. On the forecast track, the disturbance is expected to move just offshore of the northern Gulf Coast of Mexico through Tue, and approach the Louisiana and Upper Texas coastline on Wed. The disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm today, with more significant intensification forecast to occur on Tue. The system is forecast to become a hurricane before it reaches the northwestern U.S. Gulf Coast. Potential Tropical Cyclone Six is expected to bring heavy rainfall and the risk of considerable flash flooding along the coast of far northeast Mexico, portions of southernmost Texas, southern Louisiana, and southern Mississippi into Thu morning. A risk of flash and urban flooding exists across portions of the Mid-South from Wed into Fri morning. Swells generated by this system are affecting portions of the Gulf coast of Mexico and are expected to spread northwestward across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico coastline through midweek. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Six NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92): A 1009 mb area of low pressure near 13.5N42.5W is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the central tropical Atlantic. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 13N to 16N between 39W and 42W. Nearby winds are currently up to 25 kt per an earlier ASCAT scatterometer pass with seas around 8 ft. Environmental conditions appear generally conducive for development during the next few days, and a tropical depression is expected to form while the system meanders over the central tropical Atlantic. By the middle of the week, the system should begin move westward-northwestward at around 10 kt. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at hurricanes.gov for details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave in the central Atlantic is along 49W/50W, south of 20N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Convection near this wave is described with the monsoon trough and ITCZ. An tropical wave moving from the eastern to the central Caribbean Sea is along 71W, south of 22N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. A few showers and thunderstorms are observed near the axis along the coast of Hispaniola. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 12N16W to a 1012 mb low pressure near 12.5N32.5W to a 1009 mb low pressure (AL92) near 13.5N42.5W and to 12N53W. The ITCZ stretches from 12N53W to 15N60W. Isolated to widely scattered moderate convection is observed via satellite generally along and within 300 NM north/south of both the monsoon trough and ITCZ between 30W and 56W. GULF OF MEXICO... Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIX. A stalled frontal boundary extending from northern Florida near 29N84W to 26N95W to a frontal low pressure area near 23N95.5W to Six, along with a pair of surface troughs on either side of the front, continue to support widely scattered moderate convection across portions of the Gulf from 22N to 27N. Fresh to strong winds are across the offshore waters within 60-120 nm of the coast from SW Louisiana to Texas to eastern Mexico. Moderate to fresh winds and 4 to 7 ft seas are elsewhere west of 88W away from the front and lows, with gentle to moderate winds and seas of 3 ft or less east of 88W. For the forecast, Six will move to 23.0N 95.3W this afternoon, 24.1N 95.9W Tue morning, 25.2N 95.7W Tue afternoon, 26.8N 94.8W Wed morning, 28.5N 93.3W Wed afternoon, and inland to 30.7N 91.8W Thu morning. Six will become post-tropical as it moves to 34.9N 90.2W early Fri. In addition, associated rough to very rough seas will persist off the coast of Veracruz and Tamaulipas through late Mon. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish across the Gulf Thu and Fri. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the TROPICAL WAVES section for information on a TROPICAL WAVE moving from the eastern to the central Caribbean. Elsewhere, the eastern Pacific monsoon trough is resulting in scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the SW Caribbean waters, especially south of 15N. Farther east, an upper low is interacting with the nearby ITCZ to help generate scattered moderate convection across much of the Lesser Antilles to Puerto Rico. Otherwise, high pressure north of the basin is supporting mainly gentle to moderate winds, except fresh in the south-central Caribbean and fresh to strong offshore eastern Honduras due to locally tight pressure gradients. Seas are 5 to 7 ft offshore eastern Honduras, 4 to 5 ft in the central Caribbean and 2 to 4 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, a tropical wave moving into the central Caribbean across Hispaniola southward will move across the remainder of the Caribbean through the end of the week. Fresh to strong winds will pulse offshore eastern Honduras early this morning. Otherwise, moderate to fresh winds will pulse in the south-central Caribbean with mainly gentle to moderate trades elsewhere. Slight to moderate seas will prevail across the basin. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details on an area of low pressure designated as AL92. A stalled frontal boundary and a surface trough over central to northern Florida support scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the waters off NE Florida, especially north of 28N and west of 77W. The remainder of the SW North Atlantic is dominated by the subtropical ridge, sustaining moderate or weaker winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft. Locally fresh winds are immediately north of the Greater Antilles, with fresh winds also from 19N to 30N between the coast of Africa and 20W. For the forecast W of 55W, scattered showers and thunderstorms remain active along a stationary front off NE Florida. The front may make some southward progress through the early part of the week stalling from NW of Bermuda to near Cape Canaveral, Florida by mid-week with slightly higher winds and seas N of it. Across the remainder SW North Atlantic waters, winds should remain gentle to moderate, except S of 25N and E of the Bahamas where moderate to locally fresh winds are forecast through tonight. Mainly slight to moderate seas will prevail through the week. $$ Lewitsky