000 AXNT20 KNHC 101809 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Tue Sep 10 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Francine is centered near 24.9N 95.6W at 10/1500 UTC or 105 nm SE of the mouth of The Rio Grande, and moving NNE at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Peak seas range from 18 to 20 ft. Numerous heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms are observed up to 80 nm in the NE semicircle from the center. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring up to 60 nm in the SW semicircle from the center. A turn toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected later today or this evening. This will bring Francine very close to the coast of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas later this afternoon, before making landfall in Louisiana Wednesday, and moving into Mississippi Wednesday night ad Thursday. Strengthening is anticipated and Francine will likely become a hurricane later this afternoon or evening. Francine will produce heavy rainfall across much of Louisiana and Mississippi through Friday, probably causing flash and urban flooding. Large swells generated by Francine are already impacting the coast of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas, creating dangerous surf and rip currents. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest High Sea and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more information. For the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory on Francine, visit www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Central Tropical Atlantic Invest Area (AL92): An elongated 1010 mb low pressure is near 15N41W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is seen up to 100 nm in a NW semicircle from the center. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are present near the system from 13N to 16N between 39W and 43W. This system is forecast to gradually move westward for the next few days. Environmental conditions appear to be marginally conducive for some slight development but a tropical depression could still form over the next few days. There is a medium chance of formation for the next 2 to 7 days. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A robust eastern Atlantic tropical wave is east of the Cabo Verde Islands near 22W from 17N southward, and moving west at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N to 16N between 21W and 28W. A western Atlantic tropical wave is over the Lesser Antilles near 61W from 19N southward to northeastern Venezuela. It is moving westward around 15 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are present offshore from northeastern Venezuela and southeast of Trinidad and Tobago. A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 78W from near Jamaica southward across eastern Panama into the East Pacific. It is moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. This wave is inducing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms at the southwestern Caribbean. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coastal border of Mauritania and Senegal, extends west-southwestward to a 1011 mb low pressure near 10N33W, then turns northwestward across AL92 mentioned earlier to a third 1011 low pressure near 14N51W. No ITCZ axis is evident in the tropical Atlantic. Scattered moderate convection is noted near the first low and monsoon trough from 07N to 15N between 31W and 39W. Similar convection is seen up 100 nm in a NW semicircle from the center of the third low pressure. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section for information on Tropical Storm Francine in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. A persistent stationary front stretches westward from central Florida to well south of Texas-Louisiana border near 27N94W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring near this boundary across the northern Gulf, north of 25N. Outside of the direct influence of Francine, fresh to near-gale winds with 10 to 17 ft seas are present at the west-central Gulf. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and seas at 6 to 10 ft are noted at the northwestern Gulf. Gentle to moderate ESE to SSW winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, Francine will strengthen to a hurricane near 26.0N 94.8W this evening with maximum sustained winds of 65 kt and gusts 80 kt. It will move to near 27.8N 93.2W Wed morning with maximum sustained winds of 80 kt and gusts to 100 kt, then to just inland near 29.9N 91.3W Wed evening as it begins to weaken. Francine will move inland and weaken to a tropical storm near 32.2N 90.4W Thu morning with maximum sustained winds of 40 kt and gusts to 50 kt, and then a tropical depression well inland near 34.6N 90.1W Thu evening. Associated rough to very rough seas will persist off the coast of Veracruz and Tamaulipas through at least this morning. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish across the Gulf Thu through Fri, however westerly swell will impact the eastern Gulf Wed through Thu. High pressure will become established over the north-central Gulf Sat and Sat night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper-level trough curves southwestward from an upper low near 26N64W across Puerto Rico to near the Colombia-Venezuela border. These features are generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms at the northeastern basin, including waters near Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, and northward to the western Atlantic near 23N. Refer to the Tropical Waves section for additional convection in the Caribbean Basin. Moderate with locally fresh easterly trades and seas at 4 to 6 ft are evident at the central basin. Moderate SE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas are noted at the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to moderate ENE to SE winds with seas at 3 to 5 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea. For the forecast, a tropical wave near 78W will move across the western of the basin through Fri. Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse offshore eastern Honduras with moderate to fresh winds in the south-central basin, and mainly gentle to moderate trades elsewhere. Slight to moderate seas will prevail across the basin. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section for details on Invest Area (AL92) in the central Atlantic. A nearly stationary front extends from the northwestern Atlantic across 31N73W to central Florida near Cape Canaveral. Scattered moderate convection is seen near this feature north of 26N between 65W and the Georgia/northeast Florida coast. At the central Atlantic, a surface trough curves southwestward from a 1017 mb low near 33N45W across 31N46W to 27N50W. Similar convection is flaring up north of 26N between 41W and 47W. Refer to the Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are evident north of 20N between 35W and the Florida-Georgia coast. For the tropical Atlantic from 12N to 20N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles outside the vicinity of the low pressure near 15N41W, gentle to moderate ENE to SE winds with 4 to 6 ft seas dominate. Gentle to moderate with locally fresh monsoonal S to WSW winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft in mixed moderate swells prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast W of 55W, the stationary front may make some southward progress before stalling from northwest of Bermuda to near Cape Canaveral, Florida by Wed, with slightly higher winds and seas north of it. Across the remainder southwestern North Atlantic waters, winds should remain gentle to moderate. Mainly slight to moderate seas will prevail south of the front through the next few days. $$ Chan