000 AXNT20 KNHC 102323 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Wed Sep 11 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Francine is centered near 25.7N 95.0W at 10/2100 UTC or 120 nm E of mouth of The Rio Grande, moving NE at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Numerous thunderstorms are active within 75 nm to the north of the center. Seas are 12 ft or greater within 120 nm to the east and 180 nm to the west of the center. Conditions remain favorable for Francine to intensify to hurricane strength this evening or overnight, with modest further intensification through late Wednesday prior to landfall. Francine will continue to move to the northeast with a slight faster forward speed, with the center reaching the Louisiana coast sometime Wednesday afternoon or evening. Francine will produce heavy rainfall across much of Louisiana and Mississippi through Friday, probably causing flash and urban flooding. Large swells generated by Francine are already impacting the coast of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas, creating dangerous surf and rip currents. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest High Sea and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more information. For the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory on Francine, visit www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Eastern Tropical Atlantic Invest Area (AL93): A trough of low pressure over the eastern tropical Atlantic is producing a large but disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms from near the Cabo Verde Islands extending southwestward for several hundred miles. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression will likely form during the latter part of this week while the system moves west-northwestward at 10 kt. There is a medium chance of tropical cyclone development through 48 hours, and a high chance through seven days. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at hurricanes.gov for more details. Eastern Atlantic Gale Warning: Meteo-France is forecasting gale force winds off the Moroccan coast near Agadir through Wednesday. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A robust eastern Atlantic tropical wave associated with Invest AL93 is east of the Cabo Verde Islands near 22W from 17N southward, and moving west at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 14N to 16N between 24W and 26W. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is over the Lesser Antilles near 63W from 19N southward to northeastern Venezuela. It is moving westward around 15 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are present from 16N to 18N between 64W and 66W. A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 79W from near Jamaica southward across central Panama into the East Pacific. It is moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. No significant showers or thunderstorms are noted with this tropical wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the coastal border of Mauritania and Senegal, through the Cabo Verde Islands to a 1011 mb low pressure near 10N34W, then turns northwestward to 1010 mb low pressure near 14N42W to a third 1011 low pressure near 14N51W. No ITCZ axis is evident in the tropical Atlantic. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are from 15n to 17N between 43W and 45W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section for information on Tropical Storm Francine in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. A persistent stationary front stretches westward from central Florida to well south of Texas-Louisiana border near 28N94W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring near this boundary across the northern Gulf, north of 25N between 88W and 92W. Outside of the direct influence of Francine, moderate to fresh E to SE winds and seas at 6 to 10 ft are noted at the northwestern Gulf. Gentle to moderate ESE to SSW winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, Francine will strengthen to a hurricane near 26.9N 94.0W late tonight with maximum sustained winds 65 kt gusts 80 kt, and continue northeast to near 28.9N 92.0W Wed afternoon with maximum sustained winds 80 kt gusts 100 kt. Francine is forecast to move inland and weaken to a tropical storm near 31.0N 90.6W late Wed night with maximum sustained winds 55 kt gusts 65 kt, and weaken further to a tropical depression well inland near 33.4N 89.8W Thu afternoon. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish across the Gulf Thu through Fri, however westerly swell will impact the eastern Gulf Wed through Thu. High pressure will become established over the N-central Gulf during the weekend, with rather tranquil conditions expected throughout. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Gentle to moderate trade winds and slight to moderate seas persist across the Caribbean. For the forecast, the tropical wave extending from just west of Jamaica southward to northern Panama will move across the remainder of the basin through Fri. Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse offshore eastern Honduras with moderate to fresh winds in the south-central Caribbean, and mainly gentle to moderate trades elsewhere. Slight to moderate seas will prevail across the basin for the next few days. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section for details on Invest Area (AL93) in the eastern Atlantic. A nearly stationary front extends from Bermuda to Cape Canaveral, Florida. Moderate to fresh NE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are noted north of this boundary. A weak low pressure area near 32N52W is breaking up the subtropical ridge over the central and western Atlantic. This pattern is supporting gentle to moderate winds and 4 to 6 ft seas elsewhere west of 35W, except for fresh winds and seas to 7 ft near the low pressure at 15N42W. Fresh to strong Ne winds are with 5 to 8 ft seas are evident east of 35W over the eastern Atlantic between strong high pressure over the northeast Atlantic and lower pressure over Africa. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned frontal boundary may make some southward progress as a weak cold front Wed through Thu night before stalling again and eventually lifting back N as a warm front Thu night and Fri. Elsewhere, over the remainder SW North Atlantic waters, winds should remain gentle to moderate. Mainly slight to moderate seas will prevail south of the front through the next few days. $$ Christensen