000 AXNT20 KNHC 110907 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Wed Sep 11 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0600 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Francine is centered near 27.0N 93.8W at 11/0900 UTC or 200 nm ENE of mouth of The Rio Grande, moving NE at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt. Peak seas are currently around 27 ft. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within within 180 nm in the NE quadrant, 150 nm in the E and S quadrants, and 75 nm in the W quadrant. A faster northeastward motion is expected today, and Francine is anticipated to make landfall in Louisiana within the warning area this afternoon or evening. After landfall, the center is expected to move northward across Mississippi on Thu and Thu night. Some additional strengthening is expected this morning. Francine is expected to weaken quickly after it moves inland. Francine is expected to bring heavy rainfall and the risk of considerable flash and urban flooding across southeastern Louisiana, Mississippi, far southern Alabama and northern Florida through Thu night. Flash and urban flooding is probable across the Lower Tennessee Valley and Lower Mississippi Valley tonight into Fri morning. Swells generated by Francine are affecting much of the northern and northwestern Gulf Coast, likely causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Francine NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic (AL93): A tropical wave over the eastern tropical Atlantic near 25W is producing a large but disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms from near the Cabo Verde Islands extending southwestward for several hundred nautical miles. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 13N to 18N between 23W and 28W. Associated winds are up to 20 kt with seas of 6 to 8 ft. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression will likely form during the latter part of this week while the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 kt. There is a medium chance of tropical cyclone development through 48 hours, and a high chance through seven days. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at hurricanes.gov for more details. Eastern Atlantic Gale Warning: Meteo-France is forecasting gale force winds off the Moroccan coast near Agadir through 12/03 UTC with accompanying seas of 7 to 10 ft likely. Refer to the Meteo- France High Seas Forecast listed on the website https://wwmiws.wmo.int for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Refer to the Special Features section for details on a tropical wave associated with Invest AL93. A tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean Sea near 64W/65W from 20N southward to eastern Venezuela, moving westward around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 15N to 21N between 61W and 66W. A tropical wave is in the western Caribbean Sea near 82W from 20N southward over western Panama, moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted east of the wave axis between Cuba and Jamaica, and from 11N to 13N between 82W and 85W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa from 15N17W to low pressure, AL93, near 15.5N25.5W to 11N35W to low pressure, AL92, near 15N44W to low pressure near 15N52W to 14N58W. No ITCZ is evident in the tropical Atlantic Ocean. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 09N to 14N between 28W and 33W, from 07N to 12N between 32W and 42W, and from 10N to 13N between 50W and 59W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section for information on Hurricane Francine in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. A persistent stationary front stretches westward from near Tampa Bay, Florida to 28N90W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring near this boundary across the northern Gulf, north of 25N and east of 90W. Outside of the direct influence of Francine, moderate to fresh E to SE winds and 2 to 5 ft seas prevail east of 89W, with moderate to fresh southerly winds and 4 to 7 ft seas west of 89W, except gentle winds south of 22N. For the forecast, Francine will move to 28.5N 92.3W this afternoon, move inland and weaken to a tropical storm near 30.6N 90.8W Thu morning, move farther inland and weaken to a tropical depression near 33.0N 90.1W Thu afternoon. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish across the Gulf Thu afternoon through Fri, however westerly swell will impact the eastern Gulf Wed through Thu night. High pressure will become established over the north- central Gulf during the weekend, with rather tranquil conditions expected throughout. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Moderate to fresh winds are offshore eastern Honduras and near the Windward Passage, with mainly gentle to moderate trades elsewhere. Seas are 1 to 3 ft in the NW Caribbean, 3 to 5 ft in the south- central Caribbean, and 2 to 4 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, a tropical wave extending from just south of western Cuba to western Panama will move across the remainder of the basin through Fri. Another tropical wave in the E Caribbean will move across the basin through the next few days. Fresh winds will pulse offshore eastern Honduras while moderate to fresh winds pulse in the south-central Caribbean. Mainly gentle moderate trades will prevail otherwise. Slight to moderate seas will prevail across the basin for the next few days. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section for details on Invest Area (AL93) in the eastern Atlantic. A nearly stationary front extends from near Bermuda to Cape Canaveral, Florida. Moderate to fresh NE winds and 5 to 8 ft seas are noted north of this boundary. Numerous moderate convection is noted within 240 nm SE of the front between 65W and 74W. Additional activity is over the central and western Bahamas due to a mid to upper level trough. A weak 1009 mb low pressure area, Invest AL92, is embedded in the monsoon trough near 15N44W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 14N to 17N between 42W and 47W. Earlier scatterometer data showed fresh to strong winds within 150 nm in the N quadrant while an altimeter pass measured 7 to 9 ft seas. Another weak low pressure area at 1010 mb is embedded in the monsoon trough near 15N52W with fresh to strong winds within 75 nm in the NE quadrant per a scatterometer pass, with seas of 5 to 7 ft. A low pressure area is located well to the north near 31N52W with a trough from the low to 26N55W, with another trough from 31N45W to 27N49W, which are helping to disrupt the Azores high and ridging. Scattered moderate convection is north of 28N within 75 nm of the eastern trough. Mainly gentle to moderate winds and 4 to 6 ft seas prevail under this pattern across the remainder of the waters west of 40W. To the east of 40W, moderate to fresh winds and 5 to 8 ft seas prevail, with locally strong winds across Canary Island channels. For the forecast west of 55W, a stationary front extends from near Bermuda southwestward to near Cape Canaveral, Florida. Fresh to locally strong northeast to east winds are north of the front along with seas to around 8 ft. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are north of 25N and west of 60W. The front will linger through tonight, then lifting back north as a warm front Thu and Thu night. The front may drop south to around 31N again this weekend with the potential for higher winds and seas near and north of it. Elsewhere over the remainder Southwest North Atlantic waters, winds should remain gentle to moderate with slight to moderate seas. $$ Lewitsky