000 AXNT20 KNHC 111802 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Wed Sep 11 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... -Hurricane Francine at the northwestern Gulf of Mexico: Hurricane Francine is centered near 28.0N 92.7W at 11/1500 UTC or 130 nm SW of Morgan City, Louisiana and moving NE at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt. Peak seas range from 30 to 33 ft. Heavy rain and isolated thunderstorms are occurring up to 100 nm in a SW semicircle, and up to 130 nm in a NE semicircle from the center. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are found to the east from 24N to 28N between 89W and 92W. A northeastward motion with an increase in forward speed is anticipated today, before making landfall at south- central Louisiana late this afternoon or early this evening. Afterward, Francine is going to cross southeastern Louisiana tonight and then turn northward over Mississippi Thursday and Thursday night. Little change in strength is expected before landfall, then following by rapid weakening afterward and becoming post-tropical on Thursday. Francine is expected to bring heavy rainfall and high risk of considerable flash and urban flooding across southeastern Louisiana, Mississippi, far southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle through Thu night. Swells generated by Francine are affecting much of the northern and northwestern Gulf Coast, likely causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more detail. For the latest Francine NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory, visit www.hurricanes.gov for more information. -Newly Formed Tropical Depression Seven near Cabo Verde Islands: Tropical Depression Seven is centered near 16.0N 28.7W at 11/1500 UTC or 270 nm W of the Cabo Verde Islands, and moving WNW at 16 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Seas are peaking around 10 ft near the center. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen near the center from 14N to 17N between 28W and 31W. A west to west-northwest motion at a slower forward speed is anticipated over the next few days. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Seven could become a tropical storm tonight or on Thursday -Eastern Atlantic Gale Warning: Meteo-France is forecasting gale- force winds in their Agadir marine zone through 12/03 UTC with accompanying seas of 9 to 11 ft. Refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Warning listed on the website https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/affiche/2 for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 66W from near eastern Puerto Rico southward to north-central Venezuela. It is moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is noted at the eastern Caribbean Basin, including waters near the Virgin Islands, Lesser Antilles and eastern Dominican Republic. A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 83W from near the Cayman Islands southward along the coast of Nicaragua through Costa Rica into the East Pacific. It is moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are present across the waters near Costa Rica and Panama. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the coastal border of Mauritian and Senegal and extends westward to the Cabo Verde Islands. It continues southwestward from 13N30W to 10N37W, then turns northwestward through two lows centered at 15N46W and 15N53W to 16N56W. Widely scattered moderate convection is seen near the trough from 09N to 14N between 19W and 40W. Scattered moderate convection is present near the first low within 60 nm of 15N48W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section for information on Hurricane Francine. A persistent stationary front stretches westward from near Tampa Bay, Florida to just southwest of New Orleans. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring near this boundary across the northern Gulf, north of 28N and east of 90W. Outside of the direct influence of Francine, fresh to near-gale SW to NW winds and seas of 8 to 12 ft dominate the northwestern and north- central Gulf. Moderate to fresh SW to W winds with 5 to 7 ft are noted at the south-central Gulf. Gentle to moderate SSE to SW winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, Francine will move to 29.5N 91.5W this evening, move inland and weaken to a tropical storm near 31.8N 90.3W Thu morning. It will then continue to move northward and away from the basin through Thu night. Winds and seas will diminish across the Gulf Thu afternoon into Fri, however westerly swell will impact the eastern Gulf Wed through Thu night. High pressure will become established over the north-central Gulf this weekend, with rather tranquil conditions expected throughout the Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the Tropical Waves section for convection in the Caribbean Sea. Moderate to locally fresh ENE to E winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are present at the south-central basin. Light to gentle winds with 1 to 2 ft seas are found at the northwestern basin and near Costa Rica and Panama. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea. For the forecast, a tropical wave will move across the northwestern basin through Fri. Another tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean will move through the basin through the next few days. Moderate to locally fresh winds will pulse offshore eastern Honduras through Fri, while moderate to fresh winds pulse in the south-central Caribbean through the beginning of next week. Mainly gentle moderate trades will prevail otherwise. Slight to moderate seas will prevail across the basin for the next few days. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section for details on newly formed Tropical Depression Seven in the eastern Atlantic. A stationary front extends west-southwestward from near Bermuda across 31N66W and a 1014 mb low at 29N72W to Cape Canaveral, Florida. Widely scattered moderate convection is seen near and south of this boundary, north of 23N between 60W and the Florida- Georgia coast, including the Bahamas. An upper-level low near 33N47W is triggering scattered moderate convection north of 29N between 43W and 46W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. Moderate to fresh E to ESE winds with seas at 6 to 8 ft are seen near the stationary front, north of 28N between 72W and the Georgia/northeast Florida coast. Otherwise light to gentle winds and 3 to 5 ft seas in mixed moderate easterly swells exist north of 22N between 40W and the Florida-Georgia coast. For the tropical Atlantic from 15N to 22N between 35W and the Leeward Islands, gentle to moderate with locally fresh NE to ENE winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are noted. Farther south from Equator to 15N between 35W and the Windward Islands, gentle with locally moderate SE to westerly monsoonal winds and seas at 4 to 8 ft in mixed moderate to large swells prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front will linger through tonight, then lift back north as a warm front Thu and Thu night. The front may drop south to around 31N again this weekend with the potential for higher winds and seas near and north of it. Elsewhere over the remaining western Atlantic waters, winds should remain gentle to moderate with slight to moderate seas. Looking ahead, a small but well-defined area of low pressure located several hundred miles to the east of the Leeward Islands is encountering dry air, limiting additional development before environmental conditions become even less conducive by this weekend as it moves slowly west-northwestward. This system has a low chance of tropical formation in the next 48 hours. $$ Chan