000 AXNT20 KNHC 112339 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Thu Sep 12 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on *1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Francine is centered near 29.2N 91.5W at 11/2100 UTC or 30 nm SSW of Morgan City Louisiana, moving NE at 15 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt. Peak seas are to near 30 kt. SOFAR ocean drifting buoys deployed by the Navy provided significant wave height data offshore Louisiana during the day. This data was very helpful in calculating the 12 ft sea radii of the cyclone. The radii reaches a maximum of 180 nm in the SE quadrant. Satellite imagery shows numerous moderate to strong convection from 29N to 31N between 90W and 93W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is elsewhere from 27N to 31N between 87W and 94W. Francine has made landfall in southern Louisiana in the Parish of Terrebonne, about 30 miles south- southwest of Morgan City, as a Category 2 hurricane. Francine will move across southeastern Louisiana tonight, then move northward across Mississippi on Thu and Thu night. Francine is expected to rapidly, and the system is forecast to become post- tropical Thu night or on Fri. Francine is expected to bring storm total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with local amounts to 12 inches across southeastern Louisiana, Mississippi, far southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle through Thu night. This rainfall could lead to considerable flash, urban and river flooding. Swells generated by Francine are affecting much of the northern and northwestern Gulf Coast, likely causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. In addition, please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more detail. For the latest Francine NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory, visit www.hurricanes.gov for more information. Tropical Depression Seven is centered near 16.2N 30.3W at 11/2100 UTC or 360 nm W of the Cabo Verde Islands, moving WNW at 16 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Little overall changes has been noted with this systems during the afternoon. Latest satellite imagery shows scattered moderate to strong convection within 90 nm of the center in NW quadrant. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection in what appears to be a developing outer band is from 16N to 18N between 26W and 28W. The depression is forecast to undergo a west to west-northwest motion at a slower forward speed over the next few days. The depression could become a tropical storm tonight or on Thu. -Eastern Atlantic Gale Warning: Meteo-France is forecasting gale- force winds in their Agadir marine zone through 12/09 UTC with accompanying seas of 9 to 11 ft. Refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Warning listed on the website https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/affiche/2 for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 67W from near western Puerto Rico southward to north-central Venezuela. It is moving westward at about 5 to 10 kt. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are within 120 nm east of the wave from 15N to 17N, and within 60 nm of 14N65W. A western Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 84W south of 19N to inland the northeast portion of Honduras and over eastern Nicaragua. It is moving westward around 10 kt. No significant convection is noted over the Caribbean. For significant convection related to this wave, please see the Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis a enters the Atlantic near the coastal border of Mauritian and Senegal and extends westward to the Cabo Verde Islands to low pressure of 1007 mb near 16N29W, then turns southwestward to 11N36W and northwestward to 14N43W to low pressure...AL92...of 1009 mb near 15N46W and to low pressure... AL94...of 1010 mb near 16N55W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 240 nm west-northwest of the trough between 32W and 37W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm north of the trough between 36W and 38W and also between 48W and 50W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section for information on Hurricane Francine. A persistent stationary front extends from central Florida to the coast near Cross City, and continues west-northwestward to 29N88W, where it transitions to a warm front to inland southeastern Louisiana near New Orleans. Numerous moderate convection is north of 27N east of 87W to inland Florida. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is inland central Florida. Outside of the direct influence of Francine, fresh to near-gale southwest to northwest winds and seas of 8 to 12 ft are over the eastern part of the NW Gulf and over north- central Gulf. Moderate to fresh southwest to west winds along with seas of 5 to 7 ft are noted at the south- central Gulf. Gentle to moderate SSE to SW winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, Hurricane Francine is centered near 29.2N 91.5W at 11/2100 UTC or 30 nm SSW of Morgan City Louisiana, moving NE at 15 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt. Francine will move inland and weaken to a tropical storm near 30.8N 90.5W Thu morning, and continue to move northward and away from the basin through Thu night. Winds and seas will diminish across the Gulf Thu afternoon into Fri, however westerly swell will impact the eastern Gulf through Thu night. High pressure will become established over the north-central Gulf this weekend, with rather tranquil conditions expected throughout the basin. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the Tropical Waves section for convection in the Caribbean Sea. Moderate to locally fresh ENE to E winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are present at the south-central basin. Light to gentle winds with 1 to 2 ft seas are over the western Caribbean basin and near Costa Rica and Panama. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea. For the forecast, the tropical wave along 84W will move across the remainder of the basin through Fri afternoon. Another tropical wave in the E Caribbean will move across the basin through the next few days. Moderate to locally fresh winds will pulse at times offshore of eastern Honduras through Fri while moderate to locally fresh winds pulse in the south-central Caribbean through the beginning of next week. Mainly gentle to moderate trades will prevail otherwise. Slight to moderate seas will prevail across the basin for the next few days. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section for details on newly formed Tropical Depression Seven in the eastern Atlantic. A stationary front extends southwestward from just southeast of Bermuda to 31N67W, to low pressure of 1014 mb near 30N72W and continues west-southwestward to inland Florida in the vicinity of Cape Canaveral, Florida. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are north of 27N and west of 66W. An upper-level low is near 33N42W. A 1015 mb surface low is near 32N47W with a trough to 28N48W, and another surface low is near 31N52W with a trough to near 29N54W. Scattered moderate convection is from 30N to 34N between 42W and 47W. Moderate to fresh east to southeast winds along with seas to 8 ft are near the stationary front north of 28N between 72W and the Georgia/northeast Florida coast. Otherwise light to gentle winds and 3 to 5 ft seas due to mixed moderate easterly swells exist north of 22N between 40W and the Florida-Georgia coast. For the tropical Atlantic from 15N to 22N between 35W and the Leeward Islands, gentle to moderate with locally fresh northeast NE to ENE winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are noted. Farther south from Equator to 15N between 35W and the Windward Islands, gentle with locally moderate SE to westerly monsoonal winds and seas at 4 to 8 ft in mixed moderate to large swells prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned stationary front will linger through tonight, then lift back north as a warm front Thu and Thu night. Elsewhere over the remainder Southwest North Atlantic waters, winds should remain gentle to moderate with slight to moderate seas. Looking ahead, a non-tropical area of low pressure could form along a residual frontal boundary a few hundred miles off the southeastern U.S. coastline. Thereafter, some subtropical or tropical development is possible during the early part of next week while the system drifts to the north or northwest. In addition, a small but well-defined area of low pressure located several hundred miles to the east of the Leeward Islands is encountering dry air near the system, limiting additional development before environmental conditions become even less conducive by this weekend as it moves slowly west- northwestward. Finally, an area of low pressure located over the central tropical Atlantic will encounter conditions that could be marginally conducive for some slight development during the next day or two while the system moves west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph over the central tropical Atlantic. The disturbance is expected to reach an area of stronger upper-level winds on Fri, likely ending its chances for development. $$ Aguirre