000 AXNT20 KNHC 120605 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Thu Sep 12 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0550 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Heavy rains, and wind gusts to hurricane-force, are in the metropolitan area of New Orleans... Francine is inland in Louisiana. The hazards that will be affecting land are: wind, rainfall, storm surge, tornadoes, and surf. The center of Tropical Storm Francine, at 12/0600 UTC, is near 30.2N 90.3W. This position is also about 16 nm/30 km to the NW of New Orleans in Louisiana. Francine is moving toward the NE, or 045 degrees 14 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 45 knots with gusts to 60 knots. Wind speeds of 50 knots are within: 40 nm of the center in the NE quadrant; 70 nm of the center in the SE quadrant; 30 nm of the center in the SW quadrant; and 30 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. Tropical storm force winds are within: 70 nm of the center in the NE quadrant; within 120 nm of the center in the SE quadrant; within 70 nm of the center in the SW quadrant; and within 50 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. The sea heights of 12 feet or greater are within: 0 nm of the center in the NE quadrant; 150 nm of the center in the SE quadrant; 90 nm of the center in the SW quadrant; and 0 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. The maximum sea height value is 19 feet. A stationary front is along 28N/29N between 80W and the eastern coast of Florida and 87W in the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is from to 32N between 87W and 91W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is elsewhere from 24N northward between 80W and 93W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong also is in the inland areas and the coastal waters of Mexico from the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico to the western parts of the Yucatan Peninsula. Please, consult bulletins and forecasts from your local weather office. Please, read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory, at www.hurricanes.gov, for more details. The center of Tropical Depression Seven, at 12/0300 UTC, is near 16.5N 31.3W. Tropical Depression Seven is moving toward the WNW, or 285 degrees 15 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 30 knots with gusts to 40 knots. Expect strong SW winds, and rough seas, from 08N to 24N between the Cabo Verde Islands and 40W. Fresh to strong NE winds are from 18N to 28N between 20W and 30W. Fresh NE winds, and mostly rough seas, are elsewhere from 18N northward between 18W and 30W. Fresh NE winds are from 12N to 26N between 30W and 40W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 13N to 20N between 27W and 35W. Mostly moderate seas are elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward. METEO-FRANCE Gale-force Winds: The METEO-FRANCE marine forecast consists of gale-force winds, until 12/0900 UTC, for the marine zone AGADIR. Strong northerly winds are elsewhere from 26N northward from 18W eastward. Please, refer to the website: wwmiws.wmo.int, for details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 69W/70W, from 20N southward, moving westward 10 knots. Large-scale upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from Puerto Rico westward. No significant deep convective precipitation is related solely to this tropical wave. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 85W/86W, from 20N southward, moving westward 10 knots. No significant deep convective precipitation is related solely to this tropical wave. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is spread throughout the entire Caribbean Sea. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Mauritania near 17N16W, to 17N22W. The Tropical Depression Seven is breaking up the monsoon trough. The monsoon trough continues from 13N33W to 11N37W, to the INVEST AL92 1009 mb low pressure center that is near 15N47W, to the INVEST AL94 1010 mb low pressure center that is near 15N54W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 10N to 15N between 35W and 46W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is from 03N to 10N between 26W and 50W. Scattered to numerous strong is from 07N to 13N between 12W and 15W, in parts of Africa and its coastal waters. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 04N to 07N between 10W and 15W. GULF OF MEXICO... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about Tropical Storm Francine, that is inland in Louisiana. Mostly slight to some moderate seas, and moderate to some fresh winds, are in the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico, away from the influences of Tropical Storm Francine. Tropical Storm Francine is near 30.2N 90.6W at 11 PM EDT, and is moving northeast at 14 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 981 mb. Francine will move inland to 32.0N 89.7W Thu morning, move inland and weaken to a tropical depression near 34.4N 89.8W Thu evening, become extratropical and move to 35.4N 90.1W Fri morning, 35.9N 90.2W Fri evening, and dissipate Sat morning. Associated winds and seas will diminish over the Gulf through Thu night, with westerly swell impacting the eastern Gulf through Thu night. High pressure will become established over the north-central Gulf this weekend, with rather tranquil conditions expected throughout the basin. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please, refer to the Tropical Waves section, for the details about the precipitation that is related to each tropical wave. Fresh NE winds are from 15N southward between 66W and 76W. Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. Mostly slight to some moderate seas are everywhere. The monsoon trough is along 10N to 12N, between Colombia and Central America, and into the Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 14N southward from 70W westward. A tropical wave extending from north of Honduras southward through Nicaragua will move across the remainder of the basin through Thu. Another tropical wave from the eastern Dominican Republic to western Venezuela will move across the basin through the next few days. Moderate to locally fresh winds will pulse at times offshore of eastern Honduras through Fri while moderate to locally fresh winds pulse in the south-central Caribbean through the beginning of next week. Mainly gentle to moderate trades will prevail otherwise. Slight to moderate seas will prevail across the waters through the next several days. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please, read the Special Features section, for details about the Tropical Depression Seven. An INVEST low pressure center, AL92, is a 1009 mb low pressure center that is near 15N47W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 15N to 18N between 49W and 52W. An INVEST low pressure center, AL94, is a 1010 mb low pressure center that is near 15N54W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 90 nm of the center in the W semicircle. Fresh to strong NE winds are from 15N to 22N between 40W and 55W. Rough seas are between 34W and 50W. Moderate seas are from 20N southward between 50W and 60W. Fresh SE winds are from 17N to 23N between 55W and 63W. Mostly moderate SE winds are elsewhere between 55W and 70W. Gentle winds are from the monsoon trough southward between 40W and 55W. A stationary front passes through 31N67W, to a 1012 mb 30N72W low pressure center. A cold front extends from the low pressure center, to 28N77W, and to 29N80W. A stationary front continues from 29N80W, through Florida, to 29N87W in the Gulf of Mexico. Fresh to strong NE winds, and moderate to rough seas, are from the cold front northward from 70W westward. Slight to moderate seas are from the cold front southward from 70W westward. Slight to moderate seas are between 50W and 70W. Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder of the area that is between 35W and 60W. A 1015 mb low pressure center is near 31N52W. A lone surface trough remains from an earlier trough and low pressure center combination, along 34N45W 30N47W 26N50W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 20N northward from 40W westward. The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at 12/0000 UTC, are: 0.24 in Bermuda. This information is from the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow is from 20N northward from 40W eastward. A front extending from near Bermuda to 1012 mb low pressure near 30N72W to near Cape Canaveral, Florida will stall and linger overnight with fresh to locally strong winds and seas up to 8 ft north of it. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will prevail across much of the waters north of 25N through at least Thu. The front will linger overnight and then retreat northward as a warm and stall along 31N through the end of the week. A non- tropical area of low pressure could form along the residual boundary a few hundred nautical miles off the SE U.S. coastline in a few days. Thereafter, some subtropical or tropical development is possible during the early part of next week while the system drifts to the N or NW. Regardless of development, increasing winds and building seas will impact the waters near 31N by the end of the weekend into early next week. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail otherwise. $$ mt/jl