000 AXNT20 KNHC 121805 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Thu Sep 12 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Francine is centered near 32.5N 90.1W at 12/1500 UTC or 15 nm NNE of Jackson Mississippi, and moving N at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Verified by two oil platform observations south of Louisiana and Mississippi, fresh to strong SW winds with 8 to 11 ft seas are present at the northeastern Gulf, north of 27N between 85W and 90W. A northward motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected through Friday, which will bring Francine over central and northern portions of Mississippi this afternoon and tonight, and northeastern Arkansas by Friday. Francine can still cause heavy rain with a high risk of flash and urban flooding across the locations plus Tennessee, Alabama, Georgia and the Florida Panhandle through Saturday. Swells generated by Francine should begin to gradually subside through this evening. Hazardous surf and rip current conditions can still occur. Please consult products from your local weather office. Tropical Depression Seven is centered near 17.8N 34.6W at 12/1500 UTC or 615 nm WNW of the Cabo Verde Islands, and moving WNW at 15 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Peak seas range from 9 to 10 ft. Widely scattered moderate convection is flaring up from 15N to 21N between 31W and 38W. A west-northwest to west motion at a slower forward speed is anticipated over the next few days. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Seven could become a tropical storm late this afternoon or tonight. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details. information. For the latest Francine and Seven NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory, visit www.hurricanes.gov for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 71W from central Hispaniola southward to northwestern Venezuela, and moving westward around 10 kt. Drier air at low to mid levels are hindering any significant convection. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic just south of the coastal border of Mauritian-Senegal and reaches westward to the Cabo Verde Islands. It then continues northwestward from south of Tropical Depression Seven at 12N36W through a 1012 mb low pressures, AL92 near 16N51W to anther low pressure, AL93 near 16N57W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is seen south of the trough from 10N to 14N between the central Africa coast and 19W. Widely scattered moderate convection is present farther west from 10N to 14N between 24W and 42W. Similar convection is also found near the two low pressures from 15N to 18N between 52W and 58W. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering numerous heavy showers and scattered thunderstorms across the Caribbean waters near Costa Rica, Panama and northwestern Colombia. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section for information on inland Tropical Depression Francine. A surface trough curves southwestward from near Francine across New Orleans to east of the Texas-Mexico border. Isolated thunderstorms are seen near this feature over the northwestern Gulf. A warm front drapes across the Florida Panhandle. Convergent southerly winds near this front are coupling with tropical moisture to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms near and offshore from the Florida Big Bend area. Other than the area described in the Special Features section, gentle to moderate S to SW winds and seas at 5 to 7 ft dominate the northeastern Gulf. Mainly gentle SE to SW winds and 2 to 4 ft seas are present across the southern west-central Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche. Gentle to moderate SW to NW winds with seas at 3 to 5 ft prevail for the northwestern Gulf. For the forecast, Francine will become extratropical over the northern Louisiana/Mississippi area this evening. Remnant outer winds and seas in the northeastern Gulf associated with Francine will diminish and subside through late this afternoon. High pressure will become established over the north-central Gulf this weekend, with rather tranquil conditions expected throughout the basin. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A relatively fair and modest trade-wind pattern continues across much of the basin. An upper-level trough is generating scattered moderate convection at the eastern basin. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the Caribbean Sea. Gentle to moderate ENE to SE trades and seas of 2 to 4 ft are noted for the central and eastern basin, and the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle ENE to SE winds and seas at 1 to 3 ft prevail for the rest of the basin. For the forecast, a tropical wave will move across the central and western basin through the next few days. Moderate to locally fresh winds will pulse at times offshore from eastern Honduras, while moderate to locally fresh winds pulse in the south-central basin through the beginning of next week. Mainly gentle to moderate trades will prevail otherwise. Slight to moderate seas will prevail across the waters through the next several days. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section for details on Tropical Depression Seven in eastern Atlantic. A stationary front reaches westward from a 1014 mb low near 30N76W to near Daytona Beach, Florida. Convergent southeasterly winds south of this front are coupling with an upper-level trough to produce scattered moderate convection north of 26N between 57W and the Florida- George coast, including the northwest Bahamas. Similar conditions are also evident farther south from 20N to 25N between 59W and 65W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. A broad surface ridge extends southwestward from a 1033 mb Azores High across 31N39W to near the southeast Bahamas. This feature is supporting gentle to moderate ENE to SSE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft north of 24N between 30W and the Florida-Georgia coast, except moderate to fresh SE winds with 5 to 8 ft seas off northeastern Florida north of 29N. To the south from 15N to 24N between 30W and the Great Bahama Bank/Leeward Islands, moderate to locally fresh ENE to SE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas exist. Farther south from Equator to 15N between 30W and the Windward Islands, gentle to locally moderate southeasterly winds and seas at 4 to 7 ft in mixed moderate swells prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, a stationary front will continue to support moderate to fresh NE to E winds and seas up to 8 ft over the northern Florida offshore waters. The front will retreat farther northward as a warm and stall along 31N through the end of the week. Some subtropical or tropical development is possible during the early part of next week while the aforementioned low drifts to the north or northwest. Regardless of development, increasing winds and building seas will impact the waters near 31N by the end of the weekend into early next week. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail otherwise. $$ Chan