000 AXNT20 KNHC 130455 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Fri Sep 13 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0455 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Seven is centered near 18.7N 37W at 13/0300 UTC or about 760 nm WNW of the Cabo Verde Islands, moving WNW at 14 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Peak seas are around 12 ft. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 17N to 21.5N between 32W and 37W. A west-northwest to west motion at a slower forward speed is anticipated over the next few days. Some slight strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and the depression could become a tropical storm by Friday. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Tropical Depression Seven NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 74W extending from the western end of Haiti southward to inland northeastern Colombia. It is moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is depicted north of 17N between 72.5W and the wave axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near Dakar and reaches westward to 14.5N27.5W. It then resumes northwestward from south of Tropical Depression Seven at 14N39W to 13N48W. Numerous moderate to strong convection are found from 07N to 13N between 19W and 23W. Scattered moderate convection is found from 09.5N to 13.5N between 26.5W and 29W. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering scattered moderate convection over the southwestern Caribbean south of 12N and west of 77W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough extends from near 26N90W to 29N83W. Scattered moderate convection is depicted along the trough. Latest ASCAT satellite data passes show gentle to moderate south to southeast winds over the NE Gulf. Seas in this are 5 to 6 ft. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere with seas 2 to 5 ft. For the forecast, the outer rainbands of Post-Tropical Cyclone Francine will continue over the NE portion of the basin enhancing convection/winds/seas through Fri. High pressure will become established over the north-central Gulf this weekend, with rather tranquil conditions expected throughout the basin. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A relatively fair and modest trade-wind pattern continues across much of the basin. An upper-level trough is generating scattered moderate convection over the NW Caribbean. Refer to the Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections for additional convection in the Caribbean Sea. Gentle to moderate northeast to east trade winds along with seas of 2 to 4 ft are over the central and eastern sections of the basin, and the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle northeast to east and to southeast winds and relatively low seas of 1 to 3 ft remain over the rest of the basin. For the forecast, a tropical wave extending from Haiti to northern Colombia will continue to move W across the remainder basin through the next few days. Moderate to fresh winds will pulse at times offshore of eastern Honduras and in the south- central Caribbean through the beginning of next week. Gentle to moderate trades will prevail elsewhere. Slight to moderate seas will prevail across the waters through the next several days. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section for details on Tropical Depression Seven in the far eastern Atlantic. A surface trough extends from south Florida to near 30N76W. Isolated moderate convection is found along the trough. Another surface trough is found from 29N57W to 27N65W. Scattered moderate convection is depicted from 25.5N to 31N between 56W and 65W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. A trough...former AL92...extends from near 12.5N53W to 18N54W. Scattered moderate convection is depicted from 16N to 19N between 54W and 17W. Low pressure of 1010 mb...AL94..is near 16.7N59W at 0300 UTC. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is depicted from 16N to 18N between 59W and 61W. The proximity of dry air near the system is expected to limit additional development over the next couple of days. Environmental conditions are expected to become even less conducive over the weekend while the system moves slowly west- northwestward. Regardless of development, this system could produce locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds across the northern Leeward Islands on Friday. A broad surface ridge extends southwestward from a 1031 mb Azores high pressure center through 40N24W and to the general area of the central Bahamas. This feature is supporting gentle to moderate northeast to east and southeast to south winds along with seas of 3 to 5 ft north of 24N between 39W and the Florida, except moderate to fresh northeast winds with 5 to 8 ft seas off northeastern Florida north of 29N. To the south from 15N to 24N between the west coast of African and the Leeward Islands, moderate to locally fresh northeast to east winds and 5 to 7 ft seas exist, except for seas 7 to 9 ft between the coast of Africa and 24W. Farther south from Equator to 15N between the west coast of Africa and the Windward Islands, gentle to locally moderate mainly variable winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft in mixed moderate swell prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, a stationary front extends across the W Atlantic N of 31N, then reaching northern Florida. Moderate to fresh E winds prevail in the vicinity of the front mainly N of 30N. In a few days, a non-tropical area of low pressure could form along a residual frontal boundary a few hundred miles off the southeastern U.S. coastline this weekend. Thereafter, some subtropical or tropical development is possible during the early part of next week while the system drifts to the north or northwest. Regardless of development, increasing winds and building seas will impact the waters near 31N by the end of the weekend into early next week. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail otherwise. $$ KRV