000 AXNT20 KNHC 131014 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Fri Sep 13 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Seven is centered near 19.0N 38.2W at 13/0900 UTC or 830 nm WNW of the Cabo Verde Islands, moving WNW at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Peak seas are around 12 ft within 60 nm in the N semicircle. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 15N to 25N between 31W and 38W. The depression could become a tropical storm later today, however little change in strength overall is anticipated through the weekend. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Tropical Depression Seven NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has been introduced to this analysis. Its axis extends along 21W from 02N-15N. The wave is estimated to be moving W at 10 kt. Scattered showers are noted along the wave axis. A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 75W extending from the Windward Passage to inland northeastern Colombia. The wave is moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is depicted S of 19N between 70W-76W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 16N17W to 15N31W, then resumes W of Tropical Depression Seven at 16N39W to 11N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 13N and E of 31W. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering scattered moderate convection over the southwestern Caribbean S of 12N and W of 79W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough extends from near 26N90W to 29N86W. Scattered showers are depicted along the trough. Latest ASCAT satellite data passes show gentle to moderate south to southeast winds over the NE Gulf. Seas in this are 5 to 6 ft. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere with seas 2 to 5 ft. For the forecast, the outer rainbands of Post-Tropical Cyclone Francine will continue over the NE portion of the basin enhancing convection/winds/seas through today. High pressure will become established over the north-central Gulf this weekend, with rather tranquil conditions expected throughout the basin. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave moving across the central portion of the basin. A relatively fair and modest trade-wind pattern continues across much of the basin. An upper-level trough is generating scattered moderate convection over the NW Caribbean. Gentle to moderate northeast to east trade winds along with seas of 2 to 4 ft are over the central and eastern sections of the basin, and the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle northeast to east and to southeast winds and relatively low seas of 1 to 3 ft remain over the rest of the basin. For the forecast, the tropical wave will continue to move W across the remainder basin through the next few days. Moderate to fresh winds will pulse at times offshore of eastern Honduras and in the south-central Caribbean through the beginning of next week. Gentle to moderate trades will prevail elsewhere. Slight to moderate seas will prevail across the waters through the next several days. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section for details on Tropical Depression Seven in the central Atlantic and a tropical wave over the far eastern Atlantic. A 1011 mb surface low is analyzed near 28N80W with scattered showers. To the east, a couple of troughs extend along 49W and 61W and N of 27W. Scattered moderate convection prevails in the proximity of the westernmost trough N of 23N between 57W-68W. A 1010 mb low is analyzed near 17N61W with scattered moderate convection within 60 nm on either side of it. Environmental conditions, including the proximity of dry air, do not favor development of this system while it moves west-northwestward at about 10-15 kt. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are possible across the northern Leeward Islands today. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin. Gentle to moderate northeast to east and southeast to south winds along with seas of 3 to 5 ft north of 24N between 39W and Florida, except moderate northeast winds with 5 to 7 ft seas off northeastern Florida north of 30N. To the south from 15N to 24N between the west coast of African and the Leeward Islands, moderate to fresh northeast to east winds and 5 to 7 ft seas exist, except for seas 7 to 9 ft between the coast of Africa and 24W. Farther south from Equator to 15N between the west coast of Africa and the Windward Islands, gentle to moderate variable winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft in mixed swell prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, a stationary front extends across the W Atlantic N of 31N, then reaching northern Florida. Moderate E winds prevail in the vicinity of the front mainly N of 30N. Looking ahead, a non-tropical area of low pressure could form along a frontal boundary a few hundred nmi off the southeastern U.S. coastline this weekend. Thereafter, some subtropical or tropical development is possible during the early part of next week while the system moves generally northwestward toward the coast. Regardless of development, increasing winds and building seas will impact the waters near 31N by the end of the weekend into early next week. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail otherwise. $$ ERA