000 AXNT20 KNHC 131805 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Fri Sep 13 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Gordon is centered near 19.4N 38.6W at 13/1500 UTC or 860 nm WNW of the Cabo Verde Islands, moving WNW at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Tropical- storm-force winds in the NE quadrant extend 60 nm out from the center. Peak seas are around 12 ft within 90 nm in the N semicircle. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 17N to 22N between 32W and 39W. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Tropical Depression Seven NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends along 21W from 02N-15N. The wave is estimated to be moving W at 10 kt. Scattered showers are noted along the wave axis. A new tropical wave is approaching the Lesser Antilles, currently near 56.5W from 08N to 20N. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are observed from 13N to 19N between 57W and 62W. A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 70W extending from 21N to inland western Venezuela. The wave is moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are observed from 65W to 73W between the coasts of Hispaniola and Venezuela and Colombia. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 14N17W, extends southwestward to 08N21W, and then runs northwestward to 14N31W where it is broken by Tropical Storm Gordon. The monsoon trough then resumes SW of Tropical Storm Gordon from 14N43W to 11N48W. The ITCZ then continues from 11N48W to 12N57W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 14N and E of 32W. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms are also noted in the vicinity of the ITCZ. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering scattered moderate convection over the southwestern Caribbean S of 12N and W of 77W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A pair of stationary fronts extend from the inland US into the Gulf, one from south-central Louisiana to the middle Texas coast, and the other from the far western Florida Panhandle to just north of Tampa Bay. A pre-frontal trough is also analyzed from near Biloxi, Mississippi southwestward to near 26N92W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring in the vicinities of these three features. Otherwise, light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft prevail across the basin. For the forecast, high pressure will become established over the north- central Gulf this weekend, with mainly tranquil conditions expected throughout the basin. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on the wave moving across the central portion of the basin. A surface trough is analyzed from the western tip of Cuba southeastward to about 19N79W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring near the southeastern end of the trough. A relatively fair and modest trade-wind pattern continues across much of the basin. A 1010 mb surface low is generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the NW Caribbean. Gentle to moderate northeast to east trade winds along with seas of 2 to 4 ft are over the central and eastern sections of the basin, and the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle northeast to east and to southeast winds and relatively low seas of 1 to 3 ft remain over the rest of the basin. For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will pulse offshore of eastern Honduras and in the south-central Caribbean through the beginning of next week. Gentle to moderate trades will prevail elsewhere. Slight to moderate seas will prevail across the waters the next several days. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section for details on Tropical Storm Gordon in the central Atlantic, and the Tropical Waves section for details on the two waves in the basin. A 1011 mb surface low is analyzed off the NE coast of Florida with a surface trough extending southwestward into the Florida Peninsula, and also northeastward out of the forecast waters. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are developing along and within 200 nm of these features. An upper-level trough is interacting with a surface trough over the central Atlantic, generating widely scattered moderate convection across areas north of 23N between 52W and 68W. A 1010 mb low is analyzed near 17N62W with scattered moderate convection within 100 nm on either side of it. Environmental conditions, including the proximity of dry air, do not favor development of this system while it moves west- northwestward at about 10-15 kt. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are possible across the northern Leeward Islands today. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin away from Tropical Storm Gordon. Scatterometer data shows moderate to fresh NE winds and seas of 6 to 9 ft occurring from the Canary Islands to the west coast of Africa, generally north of 18N and east of 25W. The remainder of the basin is seeing gentle to moderate E winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, a non-tropical area of low pressure could form along a frontal boundary a few hundred miles off the southeastern U.S. coastline this weekend. Thereafter, some subtropical or tropical development is possible during the early part of next week while the system moves generally northwestward toward the coast. Regardless of development, increasing winds and building seas will impact the waters near 31N by the end of the weekend into early next week. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail otherwise. $$ Adams