000 AXNT20 KNHC 132332 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sat Sep 14 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Gordon is centered near 19.5N 39.5W at 13/2100 UTC or 910 nm WNW of the Cabo Verde Islands, moving WNW at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. The 12 ft seas extend 90 nm in the northern semicircle with seas to 14 ft. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 18N to 22N between 34W and 40W. On the forecast track, Gordon will turn westward later tonight, with the system slowing down through the weekend. Slight strengthening is possible today or tonight, before a weakening trend begins on Saturday. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Tropical Depression Seven NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends along 21W from 03N-16N. The wave is estimated to be moving W at 10 kt. Scattered showers are noted within 50 nm of the wave axis. A tropical wave is approaching the Lesser Antilles near 58W from 09N to 20N. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted within 50 nm of the wave. A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 70W extending from 20N to inland western Venezuela. The wave is moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are observed from 68W to 74W between the coasts of Venezuela and Colombia. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 15N17W to 08N20W to 15N32W, and then resumes near 14N43W to 11N48W. The ITCZ extends from 11N48W to 11N55W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 13N between 13W and 33W. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms are also noted in the vicinity of the ITCZ. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering scattered moderate convection over the southwestern Caribbean S of 14N and W of 73W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A pair of stationary fronts extend from the inland US into the Gulf, one from south-central Louisiana to the middle Texas coast, and the other from the far western Florida Panhandle to just north of Tampa Bay. A pre-frontal trough is also analyzed from near Biloxi, Mississippi southwestward to near 26N92W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring in the vicinities of these three features. Otherwise, light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft prevail across the basin. For the forecast, high pressure will become established over the north- central Gulf this weekend, with mainly tranquil conditions expected throughout the basin. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on the wave moving across the central portion of the basin. A surface trough is analyzed from the western tip of Cuba southeastward to about 19N79W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring near the southeastern end of the trough. A relatively fair and modest trade-wind pattern continues across much of the basin. Gentle to moderate northeast to east trade winds along with seas of 2 to 4 ft are over the central and eastern sections of the basin, and the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle northeast to east and to southeast winds and relatively low seas of 1 to 3 ft remain over the rest of the basin. For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will pulse offshore of eastern Honduras and in the south- central Caribbean through the beginning of next week. Gentle to moderate trades will prevail elsewhere. Slight to moderate seas will prevail across the waters the next several days. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section for details on Tropical Storm Gordon in the central Atlantic, and the Tropical Waves section for details on the two waves in the basin. A stationary front extends from 31N80W to northeast Florida near 29N81W. A pre-frontal trough extends from 30N78W to South Florida. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted from 30N to 25N and W of 73W. An upper- level trough is interacting with a surface trough over the central Atlantic, generating widely scattered moderate convection across areas north of 24N between 55W and 63W. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin away from Tropical Storm Gordon. Earlier scatterometer data shows moderate to fresh NE winds and seas of 6 to 9 ft occurring from the Canary Islands to the west coast of Africa, generally north of 18N and east of 25W. The remainder of the basin is seeing gentle to moderate E winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, a non-tropical area of low pressure could form along a frontal boundary a few hundred miles off the southeastern U.S. coastline this weekend. Thereafter, the low may develop some subtropical or tropical characteristics, and a subtropical or tropical depression could form early next week while the system moves generally northwestward toward the coast. Regardless of development, increasing winds and building seas will impact the waters near 31N by the end of the weekend into early next week. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail otherwise. $$ AReinhart