735 AXNT20 KNHC 141740 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sat Sep 14 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Gordon: Gordon is centered near 20.1N 41.7W at 14/1500 UTC or 1040 nm WNW of the Cabo Verde Islands, moving W at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. The 12 ft seas are noted within 150 nm in the northern semicircle with maximum seas to 13 ft. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 17N to 23N between 33W and 42W. Gordon is forecast to continue to weaken and become a depression on Sunday. Gradual re- strengthening is possible by the middle part of next week. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Tropical Depression Seven NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Developing Low Pressure off the SE US Coast: A developing area of low pressure is located near 31N75W along a frontal boundary a few hundred miles off the southeastern U.S. coastline. Seas in its immediate vicinity are 6 to 8 ft, with moderate to fresh SW winds to the south of the system, generally between 70W and 76W and north of 26N. The system could gradually acquire subtropical or tropical characteristics thereafter over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream, and a subtropical or tropical depression or storm could form in the next couple of days while the system moves generally northwestward toward the coast. Additional information on this system can be found in products issued by your local National Weather Service Forecast Office and High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. Please also consult the latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center at www.hurricanes.gob for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends along 22W from 03N to 17N. The wave is estimated to be moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed via satellite from 05N to 11N between 18W and 24W. A tropical wave is moving across the Lesser Antilles with axis along 63W from 08N to 20N. It is moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted from 14N to 21N between the wave axis and 67W. A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 74W extending from 20N to inland Colombia. The wave is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted from 16N to 19N between 71W and 75W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 15N17W and continues southwestward to 08N24W, and then extends northwestward to 10N33W. The ITCZ extends from 14N47W to 11N61W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along and within 200 nm of both the monsoon trough and the ITCZ. The eastern extension of the East Pacific monsoon trough extends across the southwestern Caribbean, and is generating scattered moderate convection from the coasts of Colombia and Costa Rica to 14N between 76W and 80W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A pair of stationary fronts are analyzed in the Gulf, one from just south of Apalachicola, FL to near 26N91W, and the other from near Apalachicola to just north of Tampa Bay. Two pre-frontal troughs are also analyzed, one from the first stationary front to the Bay of Campeche, and the other from near Naples, FL to near 24N84W. Scattered showers are ongoing along and near each of these features. Light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft prevail across the basin. For the forecast, high pressure will become established over the north-central Gulf this weekend, with mainly tranquil conditions expected throughout the basin. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on the waves moving across the basin. A surface trough is analyzed S of Cuba from 21N79W to 17N79W. A relatively fair and modest trade-wind pattern continues across much of the basin. Gentle to moderate east trade winds along with seas of 2 to 4 ft are over the central and eastern sections of the basin. Gentle northeast to east and to southeast winds and relatively low seas of 1 to 3 ft remain over the rest of the basin. For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will pulse offshore of eastern Honduras and in the south-central Caribbean through the beginning of next week. Gentle to moderate trades will prevail elsewhere. Slight to moderate seas will prevail across the waters the next several days. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section for details on Tropical Storm Gordon in the central Atlantic and the developing area of low pressure off the southeastern US coast, and the Tropical Waves section for details on the wave in the basin. A stationary front extends from NE Florida to a low near 31N75W. A surface trough also extends from the low to South Florida. Scattered moderate convection is analyzed ahead of these features from 26N northward between 60W and 75W. Farther east, an upper level trough is interacting with another surface trough from 28N63W to 31N55W, with scattered moderate to strong convection occurring from 25N northward between 54W and 60W. Near the Greater Antilles, a 1012 mb surface low centered near 19N67W is acting to generate scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in its vicinity. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin away from Tropical Storm Gordon and the aforementioned areas of convection. Earlier scatterometer data shows moderate to fresh NE winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft occurring from the Canary Islands to the W coast of Africa, generally N of 25N and east of 28W. The remainder of the basin has gentle to moderate E winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft prevailing. For the forecast west of 55W, a non-tropical area of low pressure is expected to form this weekend along a frontal boundary a few hundred miles off the southeastern U.S. coastline. The system could gradually acquire subtropical or tropical characteristics thereafter over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream, and a subtropical or tropical depression or storm could form early next week while the system moves generally northwestward toward the coast.Regardless of development, increasing winds and building seas will impact the waters near 30N by the end of the weekend into early next week. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail otherwise. $$ Adams