000 AXNT20 KNHC 150429 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sun Sep 15 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0429 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Gordon is centered near 19.7N 43.8W at 15/0300 UTC or 1170 nm WNW of the Cabo Verde Islands, moving W-SW at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. The 12 ft seas extend 210 nm in the NE quadrant and 150 nm in the NW quadrant with peak seas around 15 ft. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 18N to 21N between 39W and 42W. Gordon is expected to have a slightly slower west- southwestward or westward motion during the next several days. Gordon is expected to become a depression later tonight or on Sunday. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Tropical Depression Seven NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Offshore the Southeastern U.S.: A non-tropical area of low pressure is expected to form during the next day or so along a frontal boundary a few hundred miles off the southeastern U.S. coastline. The system could gradually acquire subtropical or tropical characteristics afterward over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream and a subtropical or tropical depression or storm could form in the next couple of days, while the system moves generally northwestward toward the coast. Additional information on this system can be found in products issued by your local National Weather Service Forecast Office and High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. Please also consult the latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center at www.hurricanes.gob for more details. This system has a medium chance of development in the next 48 hours and the next 7 days. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends along 22.5W from 03N to 17N. The wave is estimated to be moving W at around 5 kt. No significant convection is depicted in association with this wave. An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 65W from 20N southward to central Venezuela, moving W at 10 kt. No significant convection is depicted in association with this wave. A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 76W extending from 21N to inland Colombia. The wave is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are within 100 nm of the wave off the coast of Colombia. . ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 20N16W and continues southwestward to 08N28W and to 12N35W, and then from 15N49W to 10N56W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 12N between 27W and 41W and between 46W and 54W. A cluster of showers and thunderstorms is moving off the coast of Guinea and Sierra Leone. . ...GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front is draped across the northeast Gulf of Mexico. A 1010 mb low pressure is noted along the Florida Panhandle near 30N85W with a surface trough extending south of the low to 28N85W. No significant convection is noted over the water at this time as all convection is over Florida. Light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 2 ft prevail across the basin. For the forecast, high pressure will remain across the basin into Mon, with generally tranquil conditions expected across the basin. Locally moderate to fresh winds could pulse in the Bay of Campeche nightly through the middle of next week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on the waves moving across the basin. Evening convection is drifting southward from Cuba into the NW Caribbean. A small weak surface trough is depicted west of Jamaica and is producing scattered moderate convection across the area. Elsewhere, a relatively fair and modest trade-wind pattern continues across much of the basin. Fresh to locally strong northeast to east winds are noted north of Colombia and northern Venezuela. Otherwise, gentle to moderate east trade winds along with seas of 2 to 4 ft are over the central and eastern sections of the basin. Gentle northeast to east and to southeast winds and relatively low seas of 1 to 3 ft remain over the rest of the basin. For the forecast, moderate to fresh E to NE winds will pulse in the south-central Caribbean through the middle of next week, with locally strong winds possible Sun night into early Wed. Pulsing moderate to locally fresh E winds will also occur off the coast of Honduras Mon into the middle of the week. Gentle to moderate trades will prevail elsewhere. Slight to moderate seas will continue across the waters the next several days. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section for details on Tropical Storm Gordon in the central Atlantic and the developing area of low pressure off the southeastern US coast, and the Tropical Waves section for details on the wave in the basin. A cold front extends from NE Florida to a 1009 mb low near 30.8N75.9W. A prefrontal surface trough is analyzed from 28N79W to southeast Florida. Scattered moderate convection is noted near the low north of 30.5N. Similar convection is noted off the Florida coast and ahead of the prefrontal trough N of 25N west of 77W. Farther east a prefrontal trough associated with a stationary front north of the area extends from 30N54W to 29N64W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is occurring N of 28N between 54W and 65W. North of 29N and west of 76W northeast winds are moderate to fresh with locally strong winds. Seas in these waters are 5 to 9 ft. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin away from Tropical Storm Gordon and the aforementioned areas of convection. Moderate to fresh NE winds and seas of 6 to 7 ft occurring from the Canary Islands to the W coast of Africa, generally N of 25N and east of 31W. The remainder of the basin has gentle to moderate E winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft. For the forecast west of 55W, a non-tropical area of low pressure is expected to form during the next day or so along a frontal boundary a few hundred miles off the southeastern U.S. coastline. The system could gradually acquire subtropical or tropical characteristics afterward over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream and a subtropical or tropical depression or storm could form in the next couple of days, while the system moves generally northwestward toward the coast. Regardless of development, increasing winds and building seas will impact the waters north of 29N into early next week. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail otherwise. $$ KRV