000 AXNT20 KNHC 151057 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sun Sep 15 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Gordon is centered near 19.6N 44.8W at 15/0900 UTC or 1040 nm E of the Northern Leeward Islands, moving WSW at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. The 12 ft seas extend 75 nm in the NE quadrant and 120 nm in the NW quadrant with peak seas around 16 ft. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 18N to 21N between 40W and 43W. Gordon will weaken to a tropical depression near 19.5N 46.0W this afternoon, move to 19.3N 47.6W Mon morning, 19.1N 48.9W Mon afternoon, 19.0N 49.9W Tue morning, 19.0N 50.4W Tue afternoon, and 19.2N 50.7W Wed morning. Gordon will change little in intensity as it moves to the 20.6N 50.6W early Thu. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Tropical Depression Seven NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Offshore the Southeastern U.S.: A non-tropical low pressure area has formed along a frontal boundary a couple of hundred miles off the southeastern U.S. coast and is producing winds to gale force north of its center. The low is forecast to move northwestward or northward over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream toward the coasts of North Carolina and South Carolina, and it could become a subtropical or tropical storm during the next day or two if the associated front dissipates and showers and thunderstorms become sufficiently organized. Regardless of tropical or subtropical development, the low is likely to bring increasing winds and building seas across the waters north of 29N over the next several days, as well as gusty winds, heavy rains with the potential for flash flooding, coastal flooding, and dangerous beach conditions to portions of the U.S. Southeast and Mid- Atlantic coast during the next couple of days. Additional information can be found in products issued by your local National Weather Service Forecast Office and High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. Please also consult the latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. This system has a medium chance of development in the next 48 hours and the next 7 days. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends along 23W south of 17N. The wave is estimated to be moving W at around 5 kt. No significant convection is depicted in association with this wave. An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 67W from 20N southward to central Venezuela, moving W at 10 kt. No significant convection is depicted in association with this wave. A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 76W extending from 21N to inland Colombia. The wave is moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. No significant convection is depicted in association with this wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 20N16W and continues southwestward to 09N30W and to 11N36W, and resumes near 15N50W to 10N58W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 10N between 29W and 41W and from 08N to 13N between 48W and 57W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front is draped across the northeast Gulf of Mexico. A 1011 mb low pressure is noted across southern Mississippi near 31N89W. Scattered showers are occurring off the coast of the northern Gulf from 89W through coastal Florida. Light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 2 ft prevail across the basin. For the forecast, light to gentle breezes will occur through much of the upcoming week as a stagnant pattern continues across the region. Locally moderate to fresh E winds could pulse at times in the Bay of Campeche nightly through the middle of the week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on the waves moving across the basin. A small, weak surface trough is depicted northwest of Jamaica and is producing scattered moderate convection across the area. Elsewhere, a relatively fair and modest trade-wind pattern continues across much of the basin. Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds are noted north of Colombia and northern Venezuela. Otherwise, gentle to moderate E trade winds along with seas of 2 to 4 ft are over the central and eastern sections of the basin. Gentle NE to SE winds and relatively low seas of 1 to 3 ft remain prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, moderate to fresh E to NE winds will pulse in the central Caribbean through the middle of this week, with locally strong winds possible in the south-central basin tonight thru Tue. Pulsing moderate to locally fresh E winds will also occur off the coast of Honduras Mon into the middle of the week. Gentle to moderate trades will prevail elsewhere. Slight to moderate seas will continue across the waters the next several days. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section for details on Tropical Storm Gordon in the central Atlantic and the developing area of low pressure off the southeastern US coast, and the Tropical Waves section for details on the wave in the basin. A 1009 mb off the coast of northeast Florida is located near 31N77W, and a stationary front extends southwestward to the central coast of Florida. Scattered showers are noted from off the coast of northern Florida through the Bahamas, generally north of 24N and west of 73W. Farther east, a stationary front extends eastward from 31N77W to 32N55W. North of 29N and west of 60W to the coast of northeast Florida, strong to near gale NE winds are occurring, with associated waves of 6 to 9 ft. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin away from Tropical Storm Gordon and the aforementioned areas of convection. Moderate to fresh NE winds and seas of 6 to 7 ft occurring from the Canary Islands to the W coast of Africa, generally N of 25N and east of 31W. The remainder of the basin has gentle to moderate E winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft. For the forecast west of 55W away from the potential tropical development off the southeastern coast of the U.S., moderate to fresh NE winds and rough seas will develop by midweek north of 25N and east of 60W. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail otherwise. $$ ADAMS