000 AXNT20 KNHC 160514 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Mon Sep 16 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0513 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Gordon is centered near 19.0N 46.0W at 16/0300 UTC or 930 nm E of the Northern Leeward Islands, moving W at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 Kt with peak seas near 14 ft. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are near the center of Gordon. Gordon will move W to WSW over the next few days. Gordon is forecast to slow down considerably through the middle of the week. Little change in strength is forecast during the next several days, though Gordon could become a post-tropical remnant low at any time. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Tropical Storm Gordon NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends along 24.5W from 06N to 19N, moving W at 5 to 10 kt. No significant convection is depicted in association to this wave. A central Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 72W from 20N southward to western Venezuela, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are observed across Hispaniola. A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 82W extending from 20N to inland west Panama. Scattered moderate convection is depicted north of 18N between 80W and 84W. Similar convection is occurring along and near the far southern portions of this wave, likely aided by the eastern extension of the East Pacific monsoon trough reaching across the southwest Caribbean. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 16N16W and continues southwestward to near 11N40W, and then resumes near 13N52W to 12N57W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 11N between 30W and 47W. In addition numerous showers and thunderstorm are depicted off the coast of Guinea-Bissau and Guinea. The eastern Pacific monsoon trough extends from 11N74W to the coast of Costa Rica near 11N84W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted S of 12N west of 79W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front is draped across the northeast Gulf of Mexico. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring over the northern Gulf from 87W through coastal Florida. A surface trough is analyzed from the Straits of Florida to 24N86W. Scattered moderate convection is depicted along this trough. Another trough is analyzed over the western Gulf producing scattered moderate convection off NE Mexico. Recent scatterometer pass depicted gentle to moderate winds over the NE Gulf. Elsewhere and outside of convection, light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 2 ft prevail. For the forecast, light to gentle breezes and slight seas will occur through this week. Locally moderate to fresh winds may pulse in the Bay of Campeche nightly through the middle of the week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on the waves moving across the basin. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring in the NW portions of the basin from 17N to the coasts of Jamaica and Cuba between 77W and 85W in association to a surface trough. Otherwise, a relatively fair and modest trade- wind pattern continues across much of the basin. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are noted via recent scatterometer data in the central Caribbean, along with seas of 4 to 6 ft. Mainly moderate E trade winds along with seas 3 to 5 ft are over the eastern portions of the basin. Gentle NE to E winds and relatively low seas of 1 to 3 ft remain elsewhere. For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E winds will prevail in the central Caribbean through the middle of this week, pulsing to strong speeds in the south-central waters tonight through Tue. Moderate to locally fresh E winds will pulse off the coast of Honduras Mon into the middle of the week. Gentle to moderate trades are expected elsewhere. Slight to moderate seas will continue across the waters the next several days. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section for details on Tropical Depression Gordon in the central Atlantic, and the Tropical Waves section for details on the wave in the basin. A stationary front extends southwestward from 31N78W to the central coast of Florida. Farther east, a stationary front extends eastward from 31N73W to a 1011 mb low near 31N69W to 31N53W. Areas of isolated showers and thunderstorms are occurring north of 24N west of 74W. Scattered moderated convention is also depicted north of 26N between 46W and 61W. Recent scatterometer data shows fresh to strong winds north of 30N west of 80W. Seas in these waters are 8 to 11 ft. An are of seas 8 to 11 ft is found north of 29N between 66W and 74W. Moderate to fresh W to SW winds are occurring along with seas of 6 to 8 ft are occuring north of 28N between 48W and 55W in association to the eastern end of the stationary front. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin away from Tropical Depression Gordon and the aforementioned areas of convection associated with the stationary front. Gentle to moderate E to NE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are occurring across much of the basin east of 50W. To the west of 50W, light to gentle SW winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft are analyzed. From the Equator to 07N and east of 31W, moderate to locally fresh S to SE winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are occurring. For the forecast west of 55W, expect fresh to locally strong winds and moderate to rough seas north of 29N and west of 70W through Mon as Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight moves northwestward, likely moving onshore somewhere in the Carolinas on Mon. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh NE winds and rough seas will develop by Tue north of 25N and east of 60W. Moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds will pulse off the coast of Hispaniola Mon through the middle of the week. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail across the rest of the basin. $$ KRV