000 AXNT20 KNHC 161100 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Mon Sep 16 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Gordon is centered near 19.2N 47.5W at 16/0900 UTC or 890 nm E of the Northern Leeward Islands, moving W at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Peak seas are near 11 ft. A westward motion is expected during the next day or so, with Gordon forecast to slow down considerably through the middle of the week. Gordon will move to 19.1N 48.3W this afternoon, 19.3N 49.1W Tue morning, 19.6N 49.5W Tue afternoon, 19.9N 49.6W Wed morning, 20.7N 49.5W Wed afternoon, and 21.9N 48.9W Thu morning. Gordon will strengthen to a tropical storm over 24.6N 47.7W early Fri. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Tropical Storm Gordon NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends along 25W south of 19N, moving W at 5 to 10 kt. No significant convection is depicted in association to this wave. A central Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 74W from 20N southward to western Venezuela, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are observed offshore of Hispaniola. A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 84W extending from 20N southward through eastern portions of Nicaragua and Costa Rica. Scattered moderate convection is occurring along and near the far southern portions of this wave, likely aided by the eastern extension of the East Pacific monsoon trough reaching across the southwest Caribbean. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 16N16W and continues southwestward to near 10N36W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 14N between 33W and 43W. In addition, numerous showers and thunderstorm are occurring off the coast of Senegal southward through Guinea-Bissau. The eastern Pacific monsoon trough extends from 11N74W to the coast of Costa Rica near 10N84W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted S of 12N west of 77W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front is draped across the northeast Gulf of Mexico. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring over the northern Gulf from 89W through coastal Florida. A surface trough is analyzed from the Straits of Florida to 24N83W, with minimal convection noted along this trough. Another trough is analyzed over the western Gulf producing scattered moderate to locally strong convection off NE Mexico. Elsewhere away from convection, gentle to locally moderate winds and slight seas prevail. For the forecast, weak high pressure over north-central portions of the Gulf and a stationary front over the Gulf Coast will support generally light to gentle winds and slight seas through the middle of the week. Locally moderate to fresh winds may pulse in the Bay of Campeche nightly through the middle of the week. A cold front moving through the Gulf late week will support moderate NE winds across the basin. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on the tropical waves moving across the basin. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring in northwest portions of the basin from 19N to the coasts of Jamaica and Cuba between 79W and 82W in association to a surface trough. Moderate to fresh E winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are noted in the central Caribbean. Otherwise, a relatively fair and modest trade-wind pattern continues across much of the basin, with gentle NE to E winds and relatively low seas of 1 to 3 ft in the northwest basin. For the forecast, a modest trade pattern across the Caribbean will continue to support moderate to fresh E winds and moderate seas across central portions of the basin to the coast of Honduras through midweek. Locally strong winds will be possible off the coast of Colombia and Venezuela through Tue. Otherwise, gentle to moderate trades and slight seas will prevail across the rest of the rest of the basin. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on Tropical Depression Gordon in the central Atlantic, and the Tropical Waves section for details on the wave in the basin. Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight is centered near 32.4N783.W. Scattered moderate to locally strong convection is occurring north of 30N between 73W and 76W, with widely scattered showers noted off the east coast of Florida and north of the Bahamas. Fresh to locally strong winds are likely occurring north of 29N and west of 75W, and moderate to rough seas are noted north of 29W and west of 70W. A stationary front extends southwestward from PTC Eight through the central coast of Florida, and also extends eastward from 32.4N783.W to a 1011 mb low near 31N69W to a 1011 mb low near 31N51W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 26N to 32N between 57W and 66W. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin away from Tropical Depression Gordon and the aforementioned areas of convection associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight and the stationary front. Gentle to moderate E to NE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are occurring across much of the basin east of 50W. To the west of 50W, light to gentle SW winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft are analyzed. For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to locally strong winds will occur today north of 29N and west of 75W as Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight moves northwestward, likely moving onshore somewhere in the Carolinas later today. Moderate to rough seas north of 29N and west of 70N will slowly subside today. Moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds will pulse off the coast of Hispaniola today through the middle of the week. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh NE winds and rough seas will develop Tue north of 25N and east of 60W as a surface low near 30N50W strengthens. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail across the rest of the basin. $$ ADAMS