000 AXNT20 KNHC 161729 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Mon Sep 16 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Gordon: Gordon is centered near 19.1N 48.1W at 16/1500 UTC or 860 nm E of the Northern Leeward Islands, moving W at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Peak seas are near 11 ft. A gradual turn toward the west-northwest and northwest at a slower forward speed is expected during the next day or so, followed by a turn toward the north and north-northeast by Wednesday. Gordon will move to 19.2N 48.7W this afternoon, 19.5N 49.2W Tue morning, 19.9N 49.4W Tue afternoon, and 20.5N 49.1W Wed morning. Gordon will then strengthen into a tropical storm near 21.6N 48.5W Wed afternoon, and move to 23.1N 47.6W Thu morning. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Tropical Storm Gordon NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. 12ft Seas in the Central Atlantic: A 1010 mb surface low currently near 31N50W will strengthen over the next several days. Moderate to fresh S to SW winds are currently occurring on the east side of the low north of 27N and west of 46W, while fresh to strong winds are occurring on the west side of the low north of 29N and east of 56W. Peak seas are currently 10 to 11 ft in NE swell north of 29N between 48W and 54W, but will build in excess of 12 ft starting Tuesday morning. Peak seas of 12 to 14 ft in NE swell will cover an area from 27.5N northward to 31N between 47W and 55W Tuesday morning through Wednesday afternoon. Strong to near-gale-force NE winds will also accompany these peak seas during a similar time frame. Seas will then steadily fall Wednesday evening. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends along 26W from 06N to 20N, moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are observed from 07N to 11N between 22W and 30W. A central Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 74W from 20N southward to inland Colombia, moving W at around 10 kt. No significant convection is associated with this wave. A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 86W extending from 20N southward through Honduras, western Nicaragua, and into the Eastern Pacific. No significant convection is associated with this wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 14N17W and continues west-southwestward to near 11N40W. Another segment of the monsoon trough is analyzed from 14N51W to 13N55W. The ITCZ then continues from 13N55W to 13N61W. Numerous moderate convection is observed from 10N to 17N between the African coast and 22W. Scattered moderate convection is also observed from 08N to 13N between 34W and 44W, as well as from 13N to 16N between 53W and 64W. The eastern Pacific monsoon trough extends from 12N74W to the coast of Costa Rica near 10N82W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted in the Colombian Basin along and within 150 nm of the trough axis. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front is draped across the northern and northeastern Gulf of Mexico. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring over the northern Gulf north of 26N and east of 87W to the Florida coast. A surface trough is analyzed over the western Gulf producing scattered moderate strong convection off NE Mexico out to about 93W. A diurnal surface trough is also analyzed over the Bay of Campeche, with scattered moderate convection developing along far southern portions of the trough. Elsewhere away from convection, gentle to locally moderate E winds and slight seas prevail. For the forecast, weak high pressure will dominate the Gulf waters supporting generally light to gentle winds and slight seas most of the work-week. A stationary front over the NE Gulf will dissipate on Tue. Locally moderate to fresh winds may pulse in the Bay of Campeche nightly through the middle of the week. A cold front moving through the Gulf late week will support moderate NE winds across the basin. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on the tropical waves moving across the basin, and the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for details on convection in the eastern Caribbean. Convergent surface winds are leading to the development of scattered moderate convection from the Windward Passage and E coast of Cuba through the NE coasts of Honduras and Nicaragua. Recent scatterometer data indicated fresh to strong E winds in the central Caribbean south of 16N between 68W and 78W, along with seas of 6 to 8 ft in this region. Moderate to fresh E winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are noted in the eastern Caribbean. Meanwhile, the western Caribbean is seeing moderate to fresh E winds and slight seas. For the forecast, high pressure located NE of Puerto Rico will continue to support fresh to strong winds in the south-central Caribbean through Tue. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate seas are expected, with the exception of gentle to moderate winds and slight seas in the NW and SW parts of the basin. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Depression Gordon in the central Atlantic, and the Tropical Waves section for details on the wave in the basin. Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight, while located well north of the forecast waters, continues to support moderate to fresh cyclonic winds north of 29N between 76W and the Florida coast, along with seas of 6 to 8 ft. A stationary front extends southwestward from PTC Eight through the central coast of Florida, and also extends southeastward from PTC Eight to a 1012 mb low near 32N69W, then eastward to a 1010 mb low near 31N61W, and then southeastward to 29N56W. A cold front then is analyzed from 29N56W to another 1010 surface low near 31N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along and generally within 150 nm of each segment of each front. Convergent surface winds are leading to the development of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from 23N to 27N between 63W and 73W. More scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring across areas from the Canary Islands westward to 25W and north of 25N. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin away from Tropical Depression Gordon and the aforementioned areas of convection associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight and the accompanying fronts. Gentle to moderate E to NE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are occurring across much of the basin east of 40W. To the west of 40W, light to gentle SW winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft are analyzed. For the forecast west of 55W, rough seas, generated by Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight located N of the area, will affect the waters N of 29N and W of 77W today. Then, seas will subside to less than 8 ft by tonight. Moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds will pulse off the coast of Hispaniola through the middle of the week. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh NE winds and rough seas will develop Tue north of 25N and east of 60W as a surface low near 30N50W strengthens. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail across the rest of the basin. $$ Adams