000 AXNT20 KNHC 171037 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Tue Sep 17 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Gordon is centered near 19.0N 49.0W at 17/0900 UTC or 800 NM E of the Northern Leeward Islands, moving W at 3 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are observed from 17N to 22N between 44W and 51W. Peak seas are near 11 ft. Gordon will move to 19.5N 49.1W this afternoon, 20.4N 48.7W Wed morning, 21.7N 48.2W Wed afternoon, strengthen to a tropical storm near 23.3N 47.5W Thu morning, 25.1N 46.7W Thu afternoon, and 26.3N 45.8W Fri morning. Gordon will change little in intensity as it moves to the 27.6N 44.6W early Sat. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Gordon NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Central Atlantic Significant Swell Event: A 1008 mb low is near 29N50W, while a cold front extends from the low to 26N54W, and a stationary front extends to 30N62W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is occurring from 28N to 31N between 43W and 48W. Strong to near gale force NE winds are likely occurring to the north and west of the center of the low with seas of 8-12 ft, and moderate to fresh S winds to the south and east. The low pressure will move southwestward over the next few days and weaken late this week as Gordon moves northward. Seas will build over the next day or so. Peak seas of 12 to 14 ft in NE swell will cover an area from 27.5N northward to 31N between 47W and 55W today through Wed afternoon. Strong to near gale-force NE winds will also accompany these peak seas during the same time frame, with gale force winds expected just north of the area. Significant wave heights are forecast to gradually begin to subside late Wed into Thu. Please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 27W, south of 20N, moving westward at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 06N to 17N and between 15W and 31W. A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 76W, south of 20N, moving westward at 5-10 kt. The southern portion of the trough axis is enhancing the scattered showers and thunderstorms over northern Colombia and south-central portions of the Caribbean Sea. A tropical wave is along 90W, extending from southern Yucatan to Guatemala and into the Eastern Pacific. A few showers are noted near this boundary. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic near 14N17W through the coast of Senegal and continues west-southwestward to 12N45W. The ITCZ is from 15N54W to 14N62W. Please see the Tropical Waves section for information on convection near the monsoon trough/ITCZ. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A broad upper level trough over the eastern United States and a stationary front in the NE Gulf is resulting in scattered showers off the coast of southwest Florida and east of Tampico, Mexico. Generally dry continental air dominates the northern portion of the Gulf, suppressing the formation of showers and thunderstorms. The weak pressure pattern promotes moderate or weaker winds and slight seas. For the forecast, weak surface ridging over the Gulf waters will support generally light to gentle winds and slight seas into Thu. Locally moderate to fresh winds may pulse in the Bay of Campeche nightly through the middle of the week. A cold front moving through the Gulf late week will support moderate NE winds across the basin. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Divergence aloft and abundant moisture continues to produce strong showers and thunderstorms south of Cuba and west of Hispaniola. Similar convection is noted off the coast of northwest Colombia through Costa Rica. Drier conditions are found in the rest of the basin, especially in the northeastern and north-central Caribbean. The pressure gradient between high pressure centered near 24N64W and the Colombian low is resulting in fresh to strong E trade winds and seas of 5-8 ft in the central Caribbean. The strongest winds and highest seas are present off northern Colombia and the Gulf of Venezuela. Moderate to locally fresh E breezes and seas of 3-6 ft are evident in the eastern Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast, the aforementioned pressure gradient will continue to support fresh trades across central portions of the basin through Wed. Locally strong winds and rough seas will be possible off the coast of Venezuela and Colombia into Wed. Moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds and slight seas will then occur across central portions of the Caribbean Thu into the weekend, with gentle to moderate winds occurring across northwestern and southwestern portions of the basin. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Depression Gordon and the Gale center in the central Atlantic. A cold front enters the SW North Atlantic near 31N76W and continues to the just south of Melbourne, Florida. Divergence aloft and abundant moisture supports scattered showers and a few thunderstorms west of 69W. The rest of the SW North Atlantic (west of 55W) is under the influence of a broad 1026 mb ridge off New England that forces fresh to locally strong E trade winds and seas of 4-6 ft off the coast of Hispaniola. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere west of 55W. In the rest of the tropical Atlantic, outside of the influence of TD Gordon and the Gale center, broad ridging dominates, supporting moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas. For the forecast west of 55W, pulsing fresh trades off the coast of Hispaniola will continue through Wed. Moderate to fresh NE winds and rough seas will develop north of 25N and east of 60W today as a surface low currently located near 29N50W strengthens. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail across the rest of the basin. $$ ADAMS