000
AXNT20 KNHC 182257
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu Sep 19 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2245 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central Atlantic Significant Swell Event: A stationary front 
extends from 31N65W southeastward to 26N61W and to low pressure 
of 1008 mb near 27N52W. A recent ASCAT satellite data pass 
revealed strong to near gale-froce winds within 300 N semicircle 
of the low. Seas are 9 to 13 ft with these winds. Satellite 
imagery shows scattered moderate convection east-northeast of the
low near 26N53W. The low near 26N53W will shift west-
southwestward through Fri allowing for a slackening of the tight
pressure gradient to its north. This will result in winds 
diminishing and seas to subside below 12 ft.

Please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the 
National Hurricane Center at website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis 33W from 05N to
20N. It is moving westward near 10 kt. Isolated light showers 
are near the southern part of the wave.

A western Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 83W south 
of 20N to eastern Pacific waters south of the Costa Rica/Panamanian
border. It is moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. Numerous moderate 
convection is within 240 nm east of the wave from 12N to 16N. 
Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is west of the 
wave inland Central America.

The northern portion of an eastern Pacific tropical wave extends
northward along an axis along 96W to inland southeastern Mexico 
near 18N. No significant convection is noted over land. This 
wave will be described in subsequent East Pacific Tropical 
Weather Discussions.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends through the coastal plains of 
Senegal near 14N17W west-southwestward to 13N25W to 12N35W and 
to 13N46W. No significant convection is noted.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

The 18Z analysis suggests that a rather weak pressure pattern is
in place over the area allowing for light to gentle winds and 
slight seas across much of the basin, except for gentle to 
moderate east to southeast winds over the eastern Bay of 
Campeche. A mid to upper-level trough over the eastern Gulf is 
helping to keep a few showers and thunderstorms active near some
sections of the Florida coast.

For the forecast, the weak pressure pattern that is place will
change little through the upcoming weekend maintaining little 
change with current winds and seas. Moderate winds may pulse in 
the eastern Bay of Campeche nightly through the next several 
days. A cold front is forecast to clip the far northeast waters 
Thu into Fri with little change in winds and seas. Winds may 
increase across the southeastern Gulf by Mon as low pressure 
forms over the northwestern Caribbean.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The tail-end of a through stretches southwestward from the 
remnant low of Gordon to the far southeastern Caribbean to just 
north of Margarita Island. Scattered showers and a few 
thunderstorms are along and near the trough. An area of numerous 
moderate convection is over the western Caribbean from 11N to 15N
between 78W and 82W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are 
elsewhere south of 17N and west of 78W. Partial ASCAT satellite 
data passes indicate mostly moderate trades over the central 
section of the sea with some patches of trades of fresh speeds, 
gentle to moderate east to southeast trades over the northwest 
and north-central sections and gentle to moderate trades over the
eastern half of the basin. Seas are in the range of 2 to 4 ft, 
except for higher seas of 4 to 6 ft north of 15N between 68W and 
80W and seas of 3 to 5 ft from 15N to 18N between 80W and 85W and
near the approaches to the Windward Passage.

For the forecast, the weak pressure gradient that is presently 
over the basin will support moderate to fresh winds and moderate
seas across the eastern and central Caribbean sections, and 
light to gentle winds along with slight to moderate seas across 
the northwestern and southwestern sections of the basin through 
at least Sat. Looking ahead, a broad area of low pressure could 
form late this weekend or early next week over the northwestern 
Caribbean Sea. Thereafter, some slow development of this system 
is possible through the middle of next week while it moves slowly
to the north or northwest over the northwestern Caribbean Sea or
the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. There is a low chance of 
tropical cyclone formation in the next seven days.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for details about the
ongoing Central Atlantic Significant Swell Event.

A sharp upper-level trough over the southeastern United States
in combination with abundant available moisture continues to 
support scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms west of
a line from near 31N67W to 27N72W and to 23N78W. A weakening 
stationary front extends from near 31N75W to along the central 
Florida coast near Cape Canaveral. A stationary front is analyzed 
from from 31N65W southeastward to 26N61W and to low pressure of 
1008 mb near 27N52W. Another stationary front extends from the 
low northeastward to 29N46W and to north of the area near 31N37W.
A large area of numerous moderate to strong convection is south 
of the stationary boundary from 24N to 28N between 40W and 45W.
Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm south of the same 
stationary boundary between 45W and 49W. To the SE, low pressure
of 1009 mb, remnant low of Gordon, is located near 21N49W. A 
trough extends from the low southwestward to 15N55W and to the 
far southeastern Caribbean Sea near northeast Venezuela. Isolated 
showers and thunderstorms are within 240 nm east of the trough
from 13N to 16N, and also from 14N to 19N between the trough and
43W. Relatively weak high pressure covers the area between the
aforementioned frontal boundaries a weak 1015 mb high center is 
analyzed near 24N68W. 

Moderate to fresh southwest winds are within 180 nm east and 
southeast of the trough that extends from the remnant low of 
Gordon. Seas with these winds are 5 to 6 ft. Elsewhere over the 
central and western portions of the basin, fresh east winds are 
along the coast of Hispaniola. Fresh north to northeast winds are
west of the Special Features mentioned 1008 low pressure that is
near 26N52W. These winds are noted from 24N to 26N between 54W 
and 58W. Seas with these winds are 8 to 10 ft in northeast swell.
Seas elsewhere over the central and western portions of the 
basin are 4 to 6 ft, except for 6 to 8 ft in northeast swell 22N 
to 24N between 55W and 60W and lower seas of 3 to 5 ft in 
northeast swell over the water east of northern Florida to near 
70W.

For the forecast W of 55W, conditions associated to the 1008 mb 
low near 27N52W will gradually diminish through Fri. Expect 
pulsing fresh trades off the coast of Hispaniola tonight. 
Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas 
will prevail across the remainder of the basin through the rest
of the week.

$$
Aguirre