000 AXNT20 KNHC 200601 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Fri Sep 20 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 87W from the Island of De Cozumel southward across Honduras and Nicaragua into the Pacific Ocean. It is moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered showers and strong thunderstorms are occurring at the Gulf of Honduras and offshore from northeastern Nicaragua. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near coastal border of Senegal and Guinea-Bissau, then extends southwestward through 10N24W to 07N32W. An ITCZ curves northwestward from 10N24W to 09N52W. Scattered moderate convection is seen south of the trough but near the ITCZ from 05N to 09N between the central Africa coast and 35W. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering isolated strong thunderstorms across the Caribbean Waters near Panama and northwestern Colombia. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough over southern Florida is producing scattered showers and strong thunderstorms at the Florida Straits, including waters near the Florida Keys. Otherwise, a weak surface ridge runs southwestward from a 1013 mb high at the northeastern Gulf to near Tampico, Mexico. Moderate NE winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft are present at the eastern Bay of Campeche. Light to gentle winds and 1 to 3 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, the weak ridge will support gentle to locally moderate easterly winds and slight seas through the weekend. Moderate to locally fresh winds may pulse in the eastern Bay of Campeche nightly through the next several days. Looking ahead, a broad area of low pressure could form early next week over the western and northwestern Caribbean Sea. Thereafter, gradual development of this system is possible, and a tropical depression could form as the system moves slowly northwestward to northward across the northwestern Caribbean Sea and into the southeastern Gulf through the middle part of next week. Regardless of development, winds and seas will start increasing across the southeastern Gulf early next week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Convergent SE to E trade winds are generating scattered showers and thunderstorms near Jamaica, western Haiti and the Windward Islands. Refer to the Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections for additional weather in the Caribbean Sea. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft are evident at the south-central basin. Moderate E winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft exist at the north-central basin. Gentle to locally moderate SE to S winds with 1 to 3 ft seas are seen across the eastern basin. Light to gentle winds and seas at 1 to 3 ft are noted near Costa Rica and Panama. Gentle to moderate ENE to E winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea. For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas are expected across the eastern and central basin, while light to gentle winds with slight to moderate seas are for the northwestern and southwestern basin through at least Sat. Looking ahead, a broad area of low pressure could form early next week over the western and northwestern basin. Thereafter, gradual development of this system is possible, and a tropical depression could form as the system moves slowly to the north or northwest over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico through the middle part of next week. There is a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next seven days. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough runs southward from a 1008 mb low off the Carolina coast through 31N77W to near the northwest Bahamas. Widely scattered moderate convection is occurring near the northwest Bahamas and off central Florida. An upper-level trough near the Turks and Caicos Islands is producing scattered showers and strong thunderstorms near the southeast Bahamas and Great Bahama Bank. Another surface trough runs southeastward from 29N63W to a 1007 mb low near 25N55W, then turns northeastward across a 1009 mb low at 26N45W and another 1013 mb low at 29N38W to 29N29W. Scattered moderate convection is found near these features north of 22N between 37W and 62W. Modest convergent southerly winds farther south are inducing isolated thunderstorms from 14N to 21N between 41W and 56W. Refer the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. Tighter gradient between the aforementioned low pressure systems and two 1019 mb highs at the north-central Atlantic is causing moderate to fresh with locally strong easterly winds, and 7 to 10 ft seas north of 22N between 40W and 61W. Otherwise, light to gentle winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft in moderate northerly swell are present north of 20N between the northwest Africa coast and Florida- Georgia coast, including the Canary Islands. Near the Cabo Verde Islands, gentle to moderate N to NE winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are noted from 13N to 20N between the central Africa coast and 30W. To the west from 12N to 20N between 30W and the Lesser Antilles, light to gentle winds and 4 to 6 ft seas in mixed moderate swells exist. Light to gentle with locally moderate southerly and monsoonal winds and 4 to 6 ft seas in mixed moderate swells prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast W of 55W, fresh to strong winds and rough seas will persist north of 22N between 40W and 61W through Fri. Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for some tropical development of the 1007 mb low near 25N55W while it meanders in the Subtropical Atlantic through early next week. Expect pulsing moderate to fresh trades off the coast of Hispaniola through Fri. Otherwise, a weak cold front will move off the southeast coast of the US tonight and slowly move across the waters north of 25N through Mon. $$ Chan