000 AXNT20 KNHC 201005 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Fri Sep 20 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A western Caribbean tropical wave near 89W, along the Yucatan coast and in the western Gulf of Honduras, then extending S across Central America. It is moving W at 10 kt. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection stretches E from this wave to around 84W, impacting the Gulf of Honduras and coastal areas of Honduras, Nicaragua, and Costa Rica. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the basin from the coast of Guinea- Bissau, continues to 10N24W and 07N32W. The ITCZ the stretches from 10N24W to 09N52W. Scattered moderate convection is seen south of the trough but near the ITCZ from 05N to 09N between the central Africa coast and 35W. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is trigger numerous moderate convection across the Caribbean Waters near Panama and northwestern Colombia. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A weak surface trough over the Florida peninsula is inducing numerous moderate convection over the Florida Straits and Keys. Otherwise, high pressure of 1013 mb centered offshore the Florida panhandle is dominating Gulf weather, bringing dry conditions, light to gentle winds, and seas of less than 3 ft. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh winds may pulse in the eastern Bay of Campeche nightly through the next several days. Looking ahead, a broad area of low pressure could form early next week over the NW Caribbean Sea. Thereafter, gradual development of this system is possible, and a tropical depression could form as the system moves slowly to the N or NW over the NW Caribbean Sea and into the southern Gulf of Mexico through the middle part of next week. Regardless of development, winds and seas will start increasing across the SE Gulf early next week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... See the above sections for details on convection in the western Caribbean associated with a tropical wave and the eastern extension of the East Pacific monsoon trough. Otherwise, there is no significant convection. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft are evident in the central basin. Mainly gentle SE to E winds with 2 to 3 ft seas are seen across the remainder of the basin. For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas are expected across the E and central Caribbean through at least Sat. Looking ahead, a broad area of low pressure could form early next week over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Thereafter, gradual development of this system is possible, and a tropical depression could form as the system moves slowly to the north or northwest over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and into the southern Gulf of Mexico through the middle part of next week. There is a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next seven days. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough that extends roughly along the Gulf Stream offshore Florida is inducing scattered moderate convection. 1007 mb low pressure centered near 25N55W is generating scattered moderate convection within about 120 nm from its center, with a broad area of mainly fresh E winds and seas of 8 to 11 ft N of 25N and E of 60W. Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for some tropical development of this system while it meanders in the Subtropical Atlantic through early next week, and there is a low chance of tropical formation over the next 7 days. To the east, another low pressure, of 1008 mb, is associated with the remnants of Gordon. This low is centered near 27N44W. This low has become a bit more organized overnight, but convection associated with it is mainly displaced E of the center, N of 27N between 35W and 44W. In and near this zone of scattered moderate convection, fresh to locally strong E winds and seas of 8 to 11 ft prevail. Some development of these remnants is possible over the next day or two as the low moves N or NNE. Thereafter, conditions are forecast to be less conducive for development. Refer the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft dominate most of the basin. For the forecast W of 55W, aside from the aforementioned low pressure near 25N55W, a weak cold front will move off the SE coast of the US today and slowly move across the waters N of 25N through Mon. $$ Konarik