480 AXNT20 KNHC 231037 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Mon Sep 23 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... NW Caribbean and Adjacent Portions of Central America (AL97): A broad 1005 mb low pressure centered near 17N81W is becoming more organized. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted from 13N to 19N between 75W and 83W. Strong SE winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are also ongoing E of the center and in and near this convection. Environmental conditions appear favorable for development of this system, and a tropical depression or storm is likely to form over the next couple of days as the system moves north across the NW Caribbean Sea and into the SE Gulf of Mexico, where further development may occur. There is a high chance of tropical formation over the next 48 hours. Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce heavy rainfall across the eastern parts of Nicaragua, Honduras, and the Yucatan Peninsula through Wednesday, and near Cuba and the Cayman Islands through Thursday. This will greatly increase the potential for life- threatening flashing flooding and mudslides in these regions. It is recommended that residents in the aforementioned areas stay alert on the latest information from their local meteorological agencies. Please refer to the Tropical Weather Discussion for the Eastern Pacific at website: www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATWDEP.shtml for rainfall across El Salvador and the Pacific coasts of Nicaragua, Guatemala, and southern Mexico. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 22W, approaching the Cabo Verde Islands. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 11N to 15N to the E of 24W. Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the middle to later part of this week while it moves W to WNW at around 10 kt across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 46W from 17N southward and moving west at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 11N to 18N between 45W and 49W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the northern Senegal coast, then curves southwestward through 09N20W to 05N32W. An ITCZ continues westward from 05N32W to 06N43W, then resumes from 10N45W to 10N57W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 06N between 14W and 41W, and within 60 nm on either side of the latter ITCZ segment. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering numerous moderate to isolated strong convection near the Colombia-Venezuela coastal border in the south-central Caribbean Sea. ...GULF OF MEXICO... See Special Features section about likely tropical development impacting the southeastern Gulf (AL97). A 1014 mb high pressure centered offshore the Florida Panhandle is dominating the basin, causing mainly gentle ESE winds and seas of 3 ft or less. For the forecast, winds and seas will increase, especially over eastern portions of the Gulf, by midweek, due to the aforementioned tropical system. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on heavy rainfall and likely tropical development in the NW Caribbean and adjacent portions of Central America. Refer to the Special Features and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections for convection in the Caribbean Sea. Outside the winds and seas mentioned in the Special Features section, gentle to moderate SE winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft prevail in the basin. For the forecast, aside from the possible tropical system in the NW Caribbean, little change in conditions is expected this week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... See the tropical waves section for information on a tropical wave in the far eastern Atlantic that has a potential for tropical develop as it moves W to WNW into the central Tropical Atlantic this week. A weak cold front extends from SE of Bermuda to just NE of the Bahamas. Scattered moderate convection is along and within 120 nm ahead of the front to the N of 25N. Scattered moderate convection is seen north of 30N between 54W and 56W, near a 1008 mb low at 30N56W. Refer to the Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. Moderate wind are noted N of 25N, with moderate to fresh NE winds N of the monsoon trough to the E of 40W. Elsewhere, light to gentle wind prevails. Seas are generally 3 to 6 ft, with some 6 to 8 ft seas in N swell following the weak cold front between Bermuda and the Bahamas. For the forecast W of 55W, a set of northerly swell will propagate into the northern waters today, bringing an increase in seas over the waters N of 28N through mid-week. Low pressure, possibly a tropical cyclone, is forecast to move northward through the eastern Gulf of Mexico late this week, which may bring increasing winds and seas to areas offshore Florida and N of the Bahamas. $$ Konarik