000 AXNT20 KNHC 231802 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Mon Sep 23 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1740 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE: The hazards that will be affecting land are: rainfall, storm surge, and wind. It is recommended that residents in Central America, and in Mexico, stay alert about the latest information from their local meteorological offices. The center of Potential Tropical Cyclone NINE, at 23/1800 UTC, is close to 17.9N 81.9W. This position also is about 94 nm/175 km to the SSW of Grand Cayman, and also about 294 nm/545 km to the SSE of the NW tip of Cuba. NINE is moving toward the north, or 350 degrees, 05 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 25 knots with gusts to 35 knots. Expect for the next 24 hours or so, from 16N to 20N between 78W and 82W, strong to near gale-force SE winds and rough seas. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is within 400 nm to 500 nm of the center in the E semicircle. Isolated moderate is within 360 nm of the center in the W semicircle. Please, read the Forecast Advisory, MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC, and the Public Advisory, MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC, for details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 22W, from 20N southward, moving westward 10 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 10N to 17N between 19W and 26W. The environmental conditions appear to be generally favorable for gradual development of this system. It is likely for a tropical depression to form during the middle to latter part of this week. The forecast movement is westward to west-northwestward in the the eastern and central sections of the tropical Atlantic Ocean. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 47W, from 17N southward, moving westward 10 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 12N to 20N between 36W and 43W, and from 19N to 22N between 45W and 48W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 09N to 16N between 44W and 62W in the SE Caribbean Sea. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Senegal close to 13N17W, to 07N30W 07N35W. The ITCZ continues from 07N35W, to 09N46W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is in the remainder of the areas that are from 10N southward from 46W eastward. ...GULF OF MEXICO... See Special Features section about likely tropical development impacting the southeastern Gulf (AL97). A 1014 mb high pressure centered offshore the Florida Panhandle is dominating the basin, causing mainly gentle ESE winds and seas of 3 ft or less. Advisories for Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine in the western Caribbean have been initiated this morning. Nine is located near 17.6N 82.0W moving N at 5 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Nine is expected to move slowly N-NW today and gradually become better organized, reaching near 18.6N 82.4W this evening as a Tropical Depression, near 19.5N 83.7W Tue morning as a Tropical Storm, near 22.1N 96W Wed morning as a hurricane, near 27.1N 85.1W Thu morning as a major hurricane, then inland near 34N 83W by Fri morning. Nine is expected to become a large and powerful hurricane. Widespread showers and thunderstorms will continue across the W and NW Caribbean then shift into the SE Gulf Tue and Wed as Nine moves northward into the eastern Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please, refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about Potential Tropical Cyclone NINE. A dissipating cold front reaches Florida near 27N82W. A surface trough continues into the Gulf of Mexico, from 27N82W to 29N88W. Broad cyclonic wind flow covers the southern half of the Gulf of Mexico at many levels of the atmosphere. Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate is in the SW half of the Gulf. Moderate or slower winds, and slight seas, are in the Gulf of Mexico. Mostly moderate, to some fresh, SE winds are between 65W and Jamaica. Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder of the areas of the Caribbean Sea that are away from the Potential Tropical Cyclone NINE. Slight seas are in the remainder of the areas of the Caribbean Sea that are away from the Potential Tropical Cyclone NINE. Advisories for Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine have been initiated this morning. Nine is located near 17.6N 82.0W moving N at 5 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Nine is expected to move slowly N-NW today and gradually become better organized, reaching near 18.6N 82.4W this evening as a Tropical Depression, near 19.5N 83.7W Tue morning as a Tropical Storm, near 22.1N 96W Wed morning as a hurricane, then continue moving northward and intensify across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Widespread showers and thunderstorms will continue across the W and NW Caribbean as Nine moves through and then exits the region. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow is from 20N northward from 42W eastward. A 1025 mb high pressure center is close to 34N27W. A surface trough continues into the Gulf of Mexico, from A dissipating cold front passes through 31N60W 26N70W, to the NW Bahamas, to Florida near 27N82W. A surface trough continues into the Gulf of Mexico, from 27N82W to 29N88W. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate, are within 480 nm to the east and to the southeast of the cold front, from the SE Bahamas northeastward. A 1006 mb low pressure center is near 32N56W. A 1013 mb low pressure center is near 33N45W. Fresh to strong winds are from 28N northward between 50W and 60W. These winds are associated with the 1006 mb 32N56W low pressure center. Fresh southerly winds are from 25N northward between 35W and 43W, to the southeast of the 1013 mb 33N45W low pressure center. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 20N northward between 30W and 60W. Fresh NE winds are from 14N northward from 35W eastward. Fresh southerly winds are from 02N southward between 20W and 40W. Fresh NE to E winds are from 01N southward between 40W and the coast of South America. Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. Slight to moderate seas are everywhere in the Atlantic Ocean. Moderate N to NE swell will propagate into the northern waters today, bringing an increase in seas over the waters N of 25N through mid-week. Advisories for Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine in the western Caribbean have been initiated this morning. Nine is located near 17.6N 82.0W moving N at 5 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Nine is forecast to move northward through the eastern Gulf of Mexico Tue night through Thu night and become a large and powerful hurricane. This will bring increasing winds and seas to areas offshore Florida and N of the Bahamas during that time. $$ mt/ss