000 AXNT20 KNHC 232346 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Mon Sep 23 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is centered near 18.1N 82.2W at 23/2100 UTC or 90 nm SW of Grand Cayman, moving NNW at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is occurring from from 17N to 20N between 79W and 82W. Additional moderate convection surrounds this area, and is occurring from 15N to the coast of Cuba, between 78W and 83W. Strengthening is expected during the next few days, and the system is forecast to become a hurricane on Wednesday and continue strengthening on Thursday as it moves across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Nine will move to 19.0N 83.0W Tue morning, 19.9N 84.2W Tue afternoon, 21.1N 85.4W Wed morning, 23.0N 86.0W Wed afternoon, 25.4N 85.5W Thu morning, and 28.9N 84.5W Thu afternoon. Nine will move inland over 35.5N 84.5W Fri afternoon. Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over western Cuba and the Cayman Islands with isolated totals around 12 inches. Over the eastern Yucatan Peninsula, 2 to 4 inches of rain is expected with isolated totals over 6 inches. This rainfall brings a risk of considerable flooding. Over the Southeastern U.S., Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 6 inches with isolated totals around 10 inches, bringing a risk of flooding, some of which could be considerable. The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. It is recommended that residents in the aforementioned areas stay alert on the latest information from their local meteorological agencies. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Nine NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic is near 23W south of 19N, moving westward at 10 kt through the Cabo Verde Islands. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 12N to 16N between 21W and 25W. Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the middle to latter part of this week while it moves westward to west-northwestward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. There is a low chance of tropical formation in the next 48 hours, and a high chance of formation within the next seven days. A tropical wave in the central Atlantic is near 49W south of 16N, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 08N to 15N between 47W and 55W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 13N17W, the curves southwestward to 07N35W. The ITCZ then extends from 07N35W to 10N47W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring north of 05N and east of 18N to the coast of Africa, and scattered moderate to locally strong convection is occurring over land. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering numerous moderate to strong convection from the Yucatan Peninsula southeastward through the coast of Panama. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine. A 1015 mb high pressure centered near 33N88W is dominating the basin, supporting light to gentle winds and slight seas. For the forecast, winds and seas will increase, especially over eastern portions of the Gulf by midweek due to Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine. Refer to the Special Features and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections for convection in the Caribbean Sea. Outside the winds and seas mentioned in the Special Features section, gentle to moderate SE winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft prevail in the basin. For the forecast away from tropical development, moderate trades and slight to moderate seas will occur in the central and eastern basin. Once PTC Nine moves north of the basin by late week, moderate trades and slight seas will return. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... See the tropical waves section for information on a tropical wave in the far eastern Atlantic that has a potential for tropical development as it moves W to WNW into the central Tropical Atlantic this week. A weak trough extends from SE of Bermuda through the Bahamas and into central Florida. Scattered moderate convection is along and within 150 NM ahead of the trough, generally north of 25N. Widely scattered moderate convection is seen north from 21N to 31N between 49N and 57N, near a 1006 mb low centered near 32N56W. Moderate winds are noted north of the monsoon trough north of 15N and east of 45E, with locally fresh NE winds occurring downwind of the Canary Islands. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds prevail. Seas are generally 3 to 6 ft, with some 6 to 8 ft seas in N swell following the weak cold front between Bermuda and the Bahamas. For the forecast W of 55W, a set of northerly swell will propagate into the northern waters through Tue, bringing an increase in seas over the waters N of 28N through mid-week. Away from potential tropical development, an easterly trade wind regime will prevail. $$ ADAMS