008 AXNT20 KNHC 240557 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Tue Sep 24 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0600 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is centered near 18.6N 82.8W at 24/0600 UTC or 100 nm WSW of Grand Cayman, moving NW at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Peak seas near Nine are 8 to 11 ft in an area from 17N to 21N between 79W and 84W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is occurring from from 12N to 22N between 77W and 85W. Strengthening is expected during the next few days, and the system is forecast to become a hurricane on Wednesday and continue strengthening on Thursday as it moves across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Nine will move to 19.1N 83.5W Tue morning, 20.2N 84.6W Tue evening, 21.6N 85.6W Wed morning, 23.4N 85.8W Wed evening, 26.2N 84.9W Thu morning, and inland to 30.4N 83.9W Thu evening. Nine will become post-tropical as it moves through the southeast U.S. late Fri. Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over western Cuba and the Cayman Islands with isolated totals around 12 inches. Over the eastern Yucatan Peninsula, 2 to 4 inches of rain is expected with isolated totals over 6 inches. This rainfall brings a risk of considerable flooding. Over the Southeastern U.S., Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 6 inches with isolated totals around 10 inches. This rainfall will likely result in areas of locally considerable flash and urban flooding, with minor to isolated moderate river flooding also possible. The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. It is recommended that residents in the aforementioned areas stay alert on the latest information from their local meteorological agencies. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Nine NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic is near 24W south of 19N, moving westward at 10 kt through the Cabo Verde Islands. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 12N to 17N between 21W and 26W. Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the middle to latter part of this week while it moves westward to west-northwestward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. There is a low chance of tropical formation in the next 48 hours, and a high chance of formation within the next seven days. A tropical wave in the central Atlantic is near 48W south of 17N, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 08N to 15N between 47W and 58W. A second area of scattered moderate convection trails this wave, generally from 13N to 18N between 38W and 47W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 17N16W, the curves southwestward to near 08N34W. The ITCZ then extends from 07N38W to 09N46W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 05N to 15N and east of 20W to the coast of Africa. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine. A 1013 mb high pressure centered near 30N87W is dominating the basin, supporting light to gentle winds and slight seas. For the forecast, Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine will move to 19.1N 83.5W Tue morning, 20.2N 84.6W Tue evening, 21.6N 85.6W Wed morning, 23.4N 85.8W Wed evening, 26.2N 84.9W Thu morning, and inland to 30.4N 83.9W Thu evening. Nine will become post-tropical as it moves through the southeast U.S. late Fri. Nine is expected to become a large and powerful hurricane. Widespread showers and thunderstorms will shift into the SE Gulf Tue through Wed as Nine moves northward into the eastern Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine. Additional scattered moderate convection is occurring east of Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine, generally from 20N southward between 71W and 78W. Outside of convection, moderate to locally fresh E winds and slight seas dominate much of the central and eastern Caribbean away from Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine. For the forecast, Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine will move to 19.1N 83.5W Tue morning, 20.2N 84.6W Tue evening, 21.6N 85.6W Wed morning, 23.4N 85.8W Wed evening, 26.2N 84.9W Thu morning, and inland to 30.4N 83.9W Thu evening. Widespread showers and thunderstorms will continue across the W and NW Caribbean through Wed as Nine moves through and then exits the region. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... See the tropical waves section for information on a wave in the far eastern Atlantic that has potential for tropical development this week. A weak trough extends from near 31N60W to 25N72W. Scattered moderate convection is along and within 250 NM ahead of the trough, generally north of 24N. Moderate to fresh E to NE winds are noted across much of the Atlantic east of 40W and north of the monsoon trough, with locally strong NE winds occurring downwind of the Canary Islands. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds prevail. Seas are generally 3 to 6 ft, with some 6 to 8 ft seas in N swell following the weak cold front between Bermuda and the Bahamas, and some 6 to 8 ft seas in NE swell east of 37W between 15N and 27N. For the forecast W of 55W, Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine will move to 19.1N 83.5W Tue morning, 20.2N 84.6W Tue evening, 21.6N 85.6W Wed morning, 23.4N 85.8W Wed evening, 26.2N 84.9W Thu morning, and inland to 30.4N 83.9W Thu evening. Nine will become post-tropical as it moves through the southeast U.S. late Fri. Nine will bring strong winds and large seas to areas offshore Florida and N of the Bahamas late this week. Tropical storm force winds are expected across portions of central and northeast Florida coastal waters Thu through early Fri. $$ Adams