000 AXNT20 KNHC 280556 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sat Sep 28 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0540 UTC. ...TROPICAL STORM JOYCE... The center of Tropical Storm Joyce, at 28/0300 UTC, is close to 18.9N 44.7W. Joyce is moving toward the WNW, or 300 degrees 10 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 45 knots with gusts to 55 knots. Tropical storm-force winds are within: 40 nm of the center in the NE quadrant; 20 nm of the center in the SE quadrant; 20 nm of the center in the SW quadrant; and 90 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. The sea heights of 12 feet or greater are within: 75 nm of the center in the NE quadrant; 0 nm of the center in the SE quadrant; 0 nm of the center in the SW quadrant; and 45 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. The maximum sea height value is 14 feet. Expect for the next 24 hours or so: strong to near gale- force winds, and rough seas, elsewhere within 20N42W 21N44W 20N46W 18N46W 18N43W 19N41W 20N42W. Expect winds 20 knots or less, and rough seas in mixed swell, for the remainder of the area that is within 21N39W 23N42W 20N46W 18N46W 17N44W 19N38W 21N39W. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is within 240 nm of the center in the N quadrant. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is in the remainder of the area that is within 320 nm of the center in the N semicircle. Please, read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST, and the OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST, that are issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the websites - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshore.php, for more information. Please, visit www.hurricanes.gov, for the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory, and the Public Advisory, about JOYCE. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 28W/29w, from 20N southward, moving westward 10 knots. Strong NE winds are from 16N to 23N between 24W and 32W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 02N to 17N between 15W and 46W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 70W/71W, from 20N southward, moving westward 15 knots to 20 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 15N to 20N between 70W and 80W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is between 60W and 70W in the Caribbean Sea. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Africa near 13N17W, to 13N19W 15N33W 14N42W. The ITCZ continues from 14N42W, to 08N58W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is in the coastal sections of Africa from 05N to 15N. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 02N to 17N between 15W and 46W. GULF OF MEXICO... The surface barometric pressure gradient is flat and weak. The Post-Tropical Cyclone HELENE is in southern Indiana. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is from 26N northward from 82W westward. The GFS model for 500 mb and for 700 mb shows that cyclonic wind flow with a trough is in the western half of the Gulf. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate rainshowers, are from 26N southward. Fresh SW winds are from 28N northward from 88W eastward. Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico. Moderate to near-rough seas are from 22N to 25N between 85W and 90W. Moderate seas are in the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico. Moderate to fresh winds across the northeastern Gulf will improve tonight. Light to gentle winds and slight seas will prevail across the basin Sat through early next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is along 70W/71W, from 20N southward, moving westward 15 knots to 20 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 15N to 20N between 70W and 80W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is between 60W and 70W in the Caribbean Sea. The monsoon trough is along 11N74W in Colombia, through Nicaragua and Honduras, and into the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 240 nm to the north of the monsoon trough between 78W and 82W. Scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is within 320 nm to the south of the monsoon trough between 72W and 79W. Mostly slight, to some moderate seas, are in the Caribbean Sea. Mostly moderate, to some fresh easterly winds, are from the 70W/71W tropical wave eastward. Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at 28/0000 UTC, are: 0.46 in Curacao, and 0.06 in Guadeloupe. This information is from the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN. Winds across the NW Caribbean are gentle to moderate with slight to moderate seas. These conditions will persist across the basin through early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about Tropical Storm Joyce. Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow, and broken to overcast multilayered clouds, are from 23N northward from 50W westward. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow is from 23N northward from 40W eastward. A 1024 mb high pressure center is near 33N27W. Strong SW winds are from 30N to 32N between 78W and 81W off the coasts of Georgia and Florida. Fresh southerly winds are in the remainder of the area that is from the NW Bahamas northward from 77W westward. Strong NE winds are from 21N to 26N from 22W eastward. Fresh NE winds are in the remainder of the area that is from: 29N15W 27N31W 25N46W 16N44W 15N27W 19N18W 29N15W. Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. Moderate seas are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. Moderate to fresh southerly winds and rough seas off the Florida coast will improve overnight. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail Sat through early next week. $$ mt/ar