000 AXNT20 KNHC 281014 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sat Sep 28 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...TROPICAL STORM JOYCE... Tropical Storm Joyce is centered near 19.5N 45.3W at 28/0900 UTC or 1010 nm E of the Northern Leeward Islands, moving NW at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. The 12 ft seas extend 120 nm in the NE quadrant and 90 nm in the NW quadrant with peak seas near 14 ft. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted along and north of the center from 19N to 24N between 41W and 47W. Joyce is expected to move WNW to NW with a decrease in forward speed through Sunday. A slow turn toward the northwest and north is forecast Sunday night and Monday. Weakening is forecast to begin tonight or on Sunday, and Joyce could degenerate into a remnant low by early Tuesday. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Joyce NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 30W from 20N southward, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 12N to 16N between 25W and 34W. Fresh to strong winds with seas 8 to 10 ft are noted with this wave. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form next week while moving toward the west and then northwest at about 10 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. This system has a low chance of formation within 48 hours and medium chance in 7 days. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 72W from 20N southward, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 14N to 18N between 68W and 75W. Moderate to fresh winds are likely occurring along the southern portion of Hispaniola associated with this wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Senegal near 12N17W to 15N30W to 13N41W. The ITCZ extends from 13N41W to 08N57W. Outside of the convection associated with the waves mentioned in discussion above, scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 15N between 13W and 48W. GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure extends across the region. Moderate to locally fresh winds are likely occurring in the northeast Gulf. Light to gentle winds prevail over the rest of the basin. Scattered thunderstorms are noted across the southeast Gulf, S of 26N between 84W and 70W. Scattered thunderstorms are also occurring in the Bay of Campeche. For the forecast, moderate winds across the northeastern Gulf will persist through tonight. Moderate to fresh near Veracruz will pulse nightly through early next week. Otherwise, light to gentle winds and slight seas will prevail across the basin through early next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Tropical Waves discussion for information on the tropical wave in the central Caribbean. The eastern Pacific monsoon trough extends across the SW Caribbean along 11N between southern Nicaragua and Colombia. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted along and south of the monsoon trough. Isolated thunderstorms are also occurring in the NW Caribbean near Jamaica and in the eastern Caribbean. Gentle to moderate S winds prevail over the NW basin with gentle to moderate trade winds over the rest of the Caribbean. Slight to moderate seas are noted across the basin. For the forecast, a tropical wave in the central Caribbean is producing moderate to locally fresh winds along Hispaniola. These winds will continue through early this afternoon. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will persist across the basin through early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section for information on Tropical Storm Joyce and the Tropical Waves section for information on the eastern and central Atlantic tropical wave. In the western Atlantic, moderate to locally fresh winds and seas to 8 ft continue off the Florida coast and the northern Bahamas. Additionally, moderate to locally fresh winds prevail north of the Greater Antilles. Otherwise, light to gentle winds and moderate seas are noted across the western Atlantic. In the central Atlantic, moderate to fresh southerly winds are noted N of 28N between 35W and 49W. Seas are 5 to 7 ft in this area. South of Joyce, winds are light to gentle with seas to 5 ft. Fresh to strong winds prevail over the eastern Atlantic north of the monsoon trough with seas 4 to 7 ft. For the forecast W of 55W, moderate to locally fresh southerly winds and rough seas off the Florida coast will improve early this morning. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail through early next week. $$ AReinhart