000 AXNT20 KNHC 281808 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sat Sep 28 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1600 UTC. ...TROPICAL STORM JOYCE... Tropical Storm Joyce is centered near 20.0N 46.0W at 28/1500 UTC or 975 nm E of the Northern Leeward Islands, and moving NW at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas of 12 to 14 ft extend up to 120 nm in the northern semicircle, and up to 90 nm in the southern semicircle. Scattered moderate convection is noted near and north of the center from 20N to 24N between 43W and 47W. Joyce is expected to move WNW to NW with a decrease in forward speed through Sunday, the follow by a slow turn toward the northwest and north Sunday night and Monday. Weakening is forecast to begin tonight or Sunday, and Joyce could degenerate into a remnant low by early Tuesday. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more information. For the latest Joyce NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory, visit www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is west of the Cabo Verde Islands near 30W from 20N southward, and moving west at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 12N to 14N between 26W and 36W. Fresh to strong easterly winds with seas 8 to 10 ft are noted from 14N to 20N between 27W and 35W. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form next week. This system has a low chance of formation within 48 hours and medium chance in 7 days. A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 74W from the Windward Passage southward to northern Venezuela. It is moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 14N to 18N between 68W and 75W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the coastal border of Guinea-Bissau and Guinea, then extends northwestward through a 1012 mb low near 14N30W to 14N40W. An ITCZ continues southwestward from 14N40W to 08N52W. Other than the convection associated with a tropical wave, scattered moderate convection is noted south of the trough from 04N to 10N between the central Africa coast and 36W. Isolated thunderstorms are seen near and south of the ITCZ from 08N to 12N between 40W and 44W. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the Caribbean waters near Costa Rica, Panama and northwestern Colombia. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A weak stationary front runs west-southwestward from the Florida Panhandle to near New Orleans. A surface trough extends southwestward from the Florida Big Bend area to the northern Bay of Campeche. Isolated thunderstorms are occurring up to 40 nm along either side of the trough. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen at the southern Bay of Campeche. Moderate S to SW winds with 3 to 4 ft seas are present at the northeastern Gulf and Florida Straits. Light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, moderate winds across the northeastern Gulf will persist through today. Winds near Veracruz, Mexico will pulse to between moderate and fresh nightly through early next week. Otherwise, light to gentle winds and slight seas will prevail across the Gulf through early next week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections for convection in the Caribbean Basin. Moderate with locally fresh E to ESE winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft dominate the north-central basin. Light to gentle winds and 1 to 3 ft seas are seen at the southwestern and west-central basin. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea. For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds at the north-central basin will continue through early this afternoon. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will persist across the basin through early next week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section on Tropical Storm Joyce. Modest convergent southerly winds are producing isolated thunderstorms offshore of the northeastern and central Florida. Refer to the Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin. Light to gentle winds and 4 to 6 ft seas in moderate northerly swell are seen north of 20N between 50W and 70W. To the west, moderate with locally fresh SE to SSW winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft exist north of 20N between 70W and the Florida-Georgia coast. Across the central and eastern Atlantic outside the influence from Tropical Storm Joyce, gentle to moderate with locally fresh NE to ESE winds and seas at 4 to 7 ft are evident north of 20N between 50W and the northwest Africa coast. Near the Cabo Verde Islands outside the impact of the tropical wave, gentle to moderate NE to SE to SW winds with 4 to 6 ft seas are noted north of 10N between the central Africa coast and 40W. To the west from 10N to 20N between 40W and the Lesser Antilles, gentle NE to SSE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft in moderate mixed swells are found. Gentle to moderate southerly and monsoonal westerly winds with 4 to 7 ft seas in mixed moderate swells prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast W of 55W, moderate to fresh southerly winds and moderate seas off the Florida coast will prevail today. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail through early next week. $$ Chan