000 AXNT20 KNHC 282333 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sat Sep 28 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...TROPICAL STORM JOYCE... Tropical Storm Joyce is near 20.3N 46.7W at 5 PM EDT, and is moving west-northwest at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Seas of 12 ft or greater extend up to 30 NM in the southern semicircle, 120 NM in the northeast quadrant and 90 NM in the northwest quadrant with peak seas up to 14 ft. Scattered moderate to strong convection is occurring from 21N to 23N between 44W and 47W. Joyce will move to 20.9N 47.8W Sun morning, 21.7N 48.9W Sun afternoon, 22.3N 49.2W Mon morning, weaken to a tropical depression near 22.9N 49.3W Mon afternoon, 23.5N 49.2W Tue morning, and become a remnant low and move to 24.3N 49.1W Tue afternoon. Joyce will dissipate Wed afternoon. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more information. For the latest Joyce NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory, visit www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is west of the Cabo Verde Islands near 30W from 20N southward, and moving west at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 14N between 25W and 31W. Fresh to strong easterly winds with seas 8 to 10 ft are noted from 14N to 20N between 29W and 35W. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression will likely form during the early or middle part of next week while the system moves toward the west and then northwest across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. This system has a low chance of formation within 48 hours and a high chance in 7 days. A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 75W from the Windward Passage southward to northern Venezuela. It is moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 14N to 18N between 75W and 80W. An area of low pressure is expected to form over the western Caribbean Sea in a couple of days. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development thereafter, and a tropical depression could form around the middle part of next week. This system is expected to move northwestward into the Gulf of Mexico during the latter portion of next week, and interests in the northwestern Caribbean Sea and along the U.S. Gulf Coast should monitor its progress. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 10N15W, then extends northwestward through a 1007 mb low near 14N30W to 14N40W. An ITCZ continues southwestward from 14N40W to 09N51W. Other than the convection associated with a tropical wave, scattered moderate convection is noted south of the trough from 04N to 10N between the central Africa coast and 35W. Isolated thunderstorms are seen near and south of the ITCZ from 08N to 12N between 40W and 44W. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the Caribbean waters near Costa Rica, Panama and northwestern Colombia. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A weak stationary front runs west-southwestward from the Florida Panhandle to near New Orleans. A surface trough extends southwestward from the Florida Big Bend area to the northern Bay of Campeche. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen at the southern Bay of Campeche. Moderate S to SW winds with 3 to 4 ft seas are present just off the northern Gulf Coast. Light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft prevail for the rest of the basin. For the forecast, moderate winds across the northern Gulf will diminish into Sun. Winds near Veracruz, Mexico will pulse to between moderate and fresh nightly through early next week. Otherwise, light to gentle winds and slight seas will prevail across the Gulf through the beginning of next week. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is expected to form over the western Caribbean Sea in a couple of days. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development thereafter, and a tropical depression could form around the middle part of next week. This system is expected to move northwestward into the Gulf of Mexico during the latter portion of next week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections for convection in the Caribbean Basin and potential tropical formation next week. Moderate with locally fresh E to ESE winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft dominate the north-central basin. Light to gentle winds and 1 to 3 ft seas are seen at the southwestern and west-central basin. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea. For the forecast aside from the potential tropical development, moderate to fresh winds at the north-central basin will diminish by early Sun. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will persist across the basin into early next week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section on Tropical Storm Joyce. Refer to the Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin. Modest convergent southerly winds are producing isolated thunderstorms offshore of northeastern and central Florida. Light to gentle winds and 4 to 6 ft seas in moderate northerly swell are seen north of 20N between 50W and 70W. To the west, moderate SE to SSW winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft exist north of 20N between 70W and the Florida-Georgia coast. Across the central and eastern Atlantic outside the influence from Tropical Storm Joyce, gentle to moderate with locally fresh NE to ESE winds and seas at 4 to 7 ft are evident north of 20N between 50W and the northwest Africa coast. Near the Cabo Verde Islands outside the impact of the tropical wave, gentle to moderate NE to SE winds with 4 to 6 ft seas are noted north of 10N between the central Africa coast and 40W. To the west from 10N to 20N between 40W and the Lesser Antilles, gentle NE to SSE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft in moderate mixed swells are found. Gentle to moderate southerly and monsoonal westerly winds with 4 to 7 ft seas in mixed moderate swells prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast W of 55W aside from potential tropical development, moderate to fresh southerly winds and moderate seas off the Florida coast will slowly diminish overnight. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail through early next week. $$ ADAMS