000 AXNT20 KNHC 290513 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sun Sep 29 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...TROPICAL STORM JOYCE... The center of Tropical Storm Joyce, at 29/0300 UTC, is close to 20.9N 47.5W. Joyce is moving toward the NW, or 305 degrees 08 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 40 knots with gusts to 50 knots. Tropical storm-force winds are within: 60 nm of the center in the NE quadrant; 20 nm of the center in the SE quadrant; 0 nm of the center in the SW quadrant; and 90 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. The sea heights of 12 feet or greater are within: 120 nm of the center in the NE quadrant; 30 nm of the center in the SE quadrant; 45 nm of the center in the SW quadrant; and 75 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. The maximum sea height value is 14 feet. Expect for the next 24 hours or so: strong to near gale- force winds, and rough seas, elsewhere within 22N44W 22N45W 22N48W 20N48W 19N47W 20N45W 22N44W. Expect also winds 20 knots or less, and rough seas in E swell, for the remainder of the area that is within 24N44W 24N46W 22N49W 19N49W 18N47W 20N41W 24N44W. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is from 21N to 24N between 44W and 46W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong is in the remainder of the area that is within 300 nm of the center in the NE quadrant. Please, read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST, and the OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST, that are issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the websites - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshore.php, for more information. Please, visit www.hurricanes.gov, for the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory, and the Public Advisory, about JOYCE. ...TROPICAL WAVES... ...ATLANTIC OCEAN AL90 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER... A 1007 mb low pressure center is near 14N31W, along a tropical wave. Mostly fresh to some strong NE winds are within 615 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. Fresh SE winds are from 22N to 27N between 30W and 42W. Moderate to near-rough seas are within 520 nm of the center in the NE quadrant. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is within 240 nm of the center in the SE quadrant. Scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is in the remainder of the area that is within 670 nm of the center in the SE quadrant. Isolated moderate is within 510 nm of the center in the W semicircle. The environmental conditions appear to be conducive for gradual development of this system. It is likely for a tropical depression to form during the early or middle part of the next week. The movement of this feature will be toward the west, and then toward the northwest, through the eastern sections and the central sections of the tropical Atlantic Ocean. Please, refer to the website, www.nhc.gov/cyclones/, for details. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 76W/77W, from 20N southward, moving westward 15 knots to 20 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 360 nm on either side of the tropical wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains border areas of Guinea and Guinea-Bissau, to 11N18W, to the 1007 mb AL90 low pressure center, to 14N53W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is in the remainder of the area that is from 20N southward from 60W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... The surface barometric pressure gradient is flat and weak. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is from 27N northward from the Florida Panhandle westward. Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is within 150 nm to the north of the monsoon trough that is passing through the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Isolated moderate is elsewhere from 24N southward from 89W westward, and off the coast of NW Cuba in the SE Gulf. Fresh SW winds are from 28N northward between the Florida Panhandle and 90W. Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico. Slight seas are in the Gulf of Mexico. Moderate winds across the northeastern Gulf will persist through Sun morning. Moderate to fresh near Veracruz will pulse nightly through Mon, potentially increasing to strong by Tue night through midweek. Otherwise, light to gentle winds and slight seas will prevail across the basin through early next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... An area of low pressure is expected to form in the western Caribbean Sea in a couple of days. The environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development after a couple of days. It is possible that a tropical depression may form around the middle part of the next week. This system is expected to move northwestward into the Gulf of Mexico during the latter part of next week. Anyone who has interests in the northwestern Caribbean Sea and along the U.S.A. Gulf Coast should monitor its progress. A tropical wave currently is along 76W/77W. The monsoon trough is along 11N75W in Colombia, through Nicaragua, and into the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 02N to 10N between 68W in Venezuela and 80W. The 76W/77W tropical wave is moving through the area of the monsoon trough. Moderate seas are from 14N to 17N within 240 nm on either side of the 76W/77W tropical wave. Slight seas are in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. Moderate to fresh NE winds are between 69W and 80W, and within 90 nm to the north of Honduras between 84W and 86W. Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. A tropical wave in the west-central Caribbean is producing moderate winds over eastern Cuba and adjacent waters. These winds will continue through Sun night as the wave continues to move in the NW Caribbean. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will persist across the basin through midweek. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about Tropical Storm Joyce, and for the AL90 1007 mb low pressure center. Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow, and broken to overcast multilayered clouds/isolated moderate convective precipitation, are from 20N northward from 55W westward. Upper level cyclonic wind flow, and broken to overcast multilayered clouds/isolated moderate convective precipitation, are from 26N northward between 20W and 55W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow is from 24N northward from 34W eastward. A surface ridge is along 29N from 34W to 72W. between A 1022 mb high pressure center is near 34N24W. A 1023 mb high pressure center is near 36N15W. Fresh NE winds are within 120 nm on either side of 31N13W 26N16W 24N20W 20N30W. Mostly fresh to some strong SW winds are from 29N northward between 35W and 45W. Mostly moderate to some fresh anticyclonic wind flow is from 20N northward from 68W westward. Fresh SE winds are from 04N southward between 40W and 48W. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are from the monsoon trough southward from 40W eastward. Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds and moderate seas off the Florida coast will prevail through tonight. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail through midweek. Northerly swell will bring rough seas to the far northeastern waters, east of 57W from Mon through Mon night. $$ mt/ar