000 AXNT20 KNHC 291805 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sun Sep 29 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1600 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Joyce: Joyce is centered near 21.6N 48.5W at 29/1500 UTC or 845 nm ENE of the Northern Leeward Islands, and moving NW at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Peak seas at 12 to 13 ft extend up to 105 nm in the N semicircle. Scattered moderate convection is noted north and northeast of the center from 22N to 24N between 46W and 49W. Joyce will continue to move northwest through tonight, then turn toward the north Monday and Tuesday. Weakening is anticipated to start later today, and Joyce should become a depression Monday and then a remnant low on Tuesday. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more information. For the latest Joyce NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory, visit website www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic Invest Area AL90: An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is west of the Cabo Verde Islands near 32W from 18N southward through an elongated 1007 mb low near 13N32W. It is moving westward around 5 kt. Scattered moderate convection is flaring up from 10N to 15N between 24W and 38W. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and there is a medium chance for a tropical depression to form during the next 48 hours. Please read the Tropical Weather Outlook at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo/php?basin=atlc&fdays=2 for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 80W from near the Cayman Islands southward to eastern Panama, and moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted across the northwestern Caribbean Sea, not including the Gulf of Honduras. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Senegal coast south of Dakar, then curves west-northwestward through the aforementioned AL90 to 16N42W. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of the trough from 05N to 10N between 14W and 25W. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is producing scattered heavy showers and isolated strong thunderstorms offshore from northern Colombia, and isolated thunderstorms at the southwestern Caribbean Sea. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A weak stationary front runs southwestward from the Florida Panhandle across New Orleans to near Brownsville, Texas. A persistent surface trough curves southwestward from the central Gulf to the Bay of Campeche. This feature is triggering scattered moderate convection in the central and southwestern Gulf, including the western Bay of Campeche. Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are present at the western Bay of Campeche. Gentle to moderate SW winds and 3 to 4 ft seas are noted at the northeastern Gulf. Mainly gentle NE to SE to WSW winds and seas at 1 to 3 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds near Veracruz will pulse nightly through Mon, potentially increasing to strong by Tue night through midweek. Otherwise, light to gentle winds and slight seas will prevail across the basin into midweek. Looking ahead, expect moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas Wed into Thu over the western Gulf due to a low pressure forming across the Bay of Campeche. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... An elongated upper-level low near 15N67W is generating isolated thunderstorms near the ABC Islands. Refer to the Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections for additional convection in the Caribbean Sea. Gentle to moderate with locally fresh E to SE winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft are evident at the central and northwestern basin. Light to gentle winds and 1 to 3 ft seas exist at the southwestern basin. Mainly gentle E to ESE winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Basin. For the forecast, stronger winds along with showers and thunderstorms will continue through Mon morning as the tropical wave continues to move into the northwestern basin. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will persist across the basin through midweek. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section for information on Tropical Storm Joyce and AL90. A surface trough curves southwestward from off the Carolina coast across 31N79W to central Florida. Isolated thunderstorms are occurring offshore from northeastern Florida. Refer to the Special Features and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. Moderate to locally fresh SE to SW winds along with 3 to 6 ft seas are seen offshore of northeastern Florida and near the southeast Bahamas. Otherwise, a 1017 mb high near 29N68W is supporting light to gentle winds with seas at 3 to 5 ft dominate north of 20N between 52W and the Florida-Georgia coast. For the central and eastern Atlantic north of 26N between the northwest Africa coast and 52W, gentle to moderate NE to SSW winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are seen. To the south from 15N to 26N between the central Africa coast and 50W, and outside the direct influence from Tropical Storm Joyce and Invest Area AL90, moderate to fresh NE to E to SE winds and 6 to 9 ft seas exist. To the west from the Equator to 20N between 40W and the Lesser Antilles, light to gentle winds with seas at 4 to 7 ft in mixed moderate swells exist. Gentle to moderate southerly and monsoonal westerly winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast W of 55W, moderate to fresh southerly winds and moderate seas off the Florida coast will improve through this afternoon. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will then prevail through midweek. Farther east, N swell will persist in midweek southeast of Bermuda, north of 25N and east of 65W. $$ Chan