000 AXNT20 KNHC 292336 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Mon Sep 30 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Joyce: Tropical Storm Joyce is centered near 22.2N 49.2W at 29/2100 UTC or 820 nm ENE of the Northern Leeward Islands, moving NW at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Seas 12 ft or greater are occurring within 90 NM in the NE quadrant and within 60 NM in the NW quadrant with peak seas near 14 ft. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 22N to 25N between 46W and 49W. Joyce will weaken to a tropical depression near 22.6N 49.4W Mon morning, move to 23.3N 49.5W Mon afternoon, become a remnant low and move to 24.0N 49.5W Tue morning, 25.0N 49.5W Tue afternoon, 26.2N 49.4W Wed morning, and dissipate Wed afternoon. Tropical Depression Twelve: Tropical Depression Twelve is centered near 13.8N 32.5W at 29/2100 UTC or 510 nm WSW of the Cabo Verde Islands, moving W at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Peak seas are near 10 ft. Moderate to strong convection is occurring from 11N to 14N between 30W and 34W, with additional moderate to locally strong convection noted from 08N to 11N between 23W and 32W. Twelve will strengthen to a tropical storm near 13.9N 33.6W Mon morning, move to 14.2N 35.7W Mon afternoon, 14.5N 38.1W Tue morning, 15.0N 40.0W Tue afternoon, strengthen to a hurricane near 15.9N 41.5W Wed morning, and 17.4N 42.7W Wed afternoon. Twelve will change little in intensity as it moves to 20.0N 45.0W Thu afternoon. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more information. For the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory, visit website www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave in the western Caribbean is near 81W from 20N southward to central Panama, and moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted across the northwestern Caribbean Sea, not including the Gulf of Honduras. Environmental conditions appear to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form around the middle part of this week while the disturbance moves slowly west- northwestward. This system is then expected to move northwestward into the Gulf of Mexico during the latter portion of this week. There is a medium chance of tropical formation in the next seven days. A tropical wave emerging from the coast of Africa is located along 18W, from 16N, southward. Moderate to strong convection is noted east of the wave across Senegal southward through Guinea-Bissau. Upper-level winds are forecast to become more conducive for gradual development of this system during the next few days, and a tropical depression could form during the middle or latter part of this week while moving slowly westward or west-northwestward over the eastern tropical Atlantic. There is a low chance of tropical formation in the next 48 hours, and a medium chance in the next seven days. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 14N17W, then curves west-northwestward toward Tropical Depression Twelve, then continues on to 15N45W. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of the trough from 04N to 09N between 19W and 28W. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is producing scattered heavy showers and isolated strong thunderstorms offshore of northern Colombia, and isolated thunderstorms across the southwestern Caribbean Sea. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Tropical Waves section for information pertaining to potential tropical development in the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico this week. A weak stationary front runs southwestward from the Florida Panhandle to near Brownsville, Texas. A persistent surface trough curves southwestward from the central Gulf to the Bay of Campeche. This feature is supporting scattered moderate convection in the central and southwestern Gulf, including the western Bay of Campeche. Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are present at the western Bay of Campeche. Gentle to moderate SW winds and 3 to 4 ft seas are noted at the northeastern Gulf. Mainly gentle NE to SE to WSW winds and seas at 1 to 3 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds near Veracruz will pulse nightly through much of this week, potentially increasing to strong by Tue night through midweek. Otherwise, light to gentle winds and slight seas will prevail across the basin into midweek. Looking ahead, expect moderate to fresh NE winds and moderate seas Wed into Thu over the western Gulf due to a low pressure forming across the Bay of Campeche. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please refer to the Tropical Waves section for information pertaining to potential tropical development in the Caribbean Sea this week. An elongated upper-level low near 15N67W is generating isolated thunderstorms near the ABC Islands. Gentle to moderate with locally fresh E to SE winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft are evident at the central and northwestern basin. Light to gentle winds and 1 to 3 ft seas exist at the southwestern basin. Mainly gentle E to ESE winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Basin. For the forecast away from potential tropical development in the NW Caribbean, stronger winds along with showers and thunderstorms will continue through Mon morning as the tropical wave continues to move into the northwestern basin. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will persist across central and eastern portions of the basin through midweek. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section for information on Tropical Storm Joyce and Tropical Depression Twelve, and the Tropical Waves Section for additional potential tropical development this week. A surface trough curves southwestward from off the Carolina coast to central Florida. Moderate convection is occurring offshore of northeastern Florida. Otherwise, a 1017 mb high near 28N72W is supporting light to gentle winds with seas at 3 to 5 ft north of 20N between 52W and the Florida-Georgia coast. For the central and eastern Atlantic north of 26N between the northwest Africa coast and 52W, gentle to moderate NE to SE winds and 4 to 7 ft seas are seen. To the south from 15N to 26N between the central Africa coast and 50W, and outside the direct influence from Tropical Storm Joyce and Tropical Depression Twelve, moderate to fresh NE to E to SE winds and 6 to 9 ft seas exist. To the west from the Equator to 20N between 40W and the Lesser Antilles, light to gentle winds with seas at 4 to 7 ft in mixed moderate swells exist. Gentle to moderate southerly and monsoonal westerly winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast W of 55W, N swell will persist through midweek southeast of Bermuda, north of 25N and east of 65W. $$ ADAMS