000 AXNT20 KNHC 302304 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Tue Oct 01 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Joyce is centered near 22.7N 48.9W at 30/2100 UTC, or 970 nm ENE of the Northern Leeward Islands, and drifting N at 2 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Peak seas of 8 to 10 ft are occurring near and up to 100 nm north of the center. Scattered moderate to strong convection is occurring across north and northeast portions of this system, from 22N to 25.5N between 44W and 50W, and well northeast from 27N to 31N between 41W and 48W. Joyce will continue to drift north for the next couple of days. Strong vertical wind shear should maintain a weakening trend, and Joyce should become a remnant low tonight. Tropical Storm Kirk is centered near 13.6N 35.7W at 30/2100 UTC, or 800 nm W of the Cabo Verde Islands, moving W at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Peak seas of 15 to 20 ft are found just north of the center from 13.5N to 16N between 34W and 36W. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted from 10N to 15.5N between 32W and 38W. Kirk is moving toward the west, and a general westward to west-northwestward motion is expected to continue through Tuesday. A gradual turn to the northwest is forecast by Wednesday. Steady strengthening is forecast, and the Kirk is expected to become a hurricane on Tuesday, and possibly a major hurricane on Wednesday. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more information. For the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory on both Joyce and Kirk, please visit www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is across the Cabo Verde Islands area along 24W from 17N southward, moving west around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection can be found from 04N to 13N between 22W and 30W. A 1008 mb surface low is analyzed along the wave near 10N24W. Upper-level winds are expected to become more favorable for gradual development and a tropical depression could form on Wednesday. A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 84W-85W from 20N southward across Central America, moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is present south of 12.5N between 79W and 85W, and across much of the interior of Central America E of 90W. Environmental conditions are expected to become conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form in a few days while the system is over the southern Gulf of Mexico or northwestern Caribbean Sea. Please see the latest Tropical Weather Outlook at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2 for more detail. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Senegal coast at 14N16.5W to low pressure 1008 mb near 10N24W, then curves northwestward to 12N28W, then continues west of Tropical Storm Kirk from 13N39W to 16.5N47W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03.5N to 12.5N between 16W and 32W. Scattered moderate to strong convection extends W of Kirk from 08.5N to 13N between 38.5W and 50W. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is interacting with a tropical wave and triggering scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the Caribbean waters south of 13N, across the waters of Panama, Costa Rica, and Nicaragua. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A weak pressure pattern persists across the Gulf basin. A surface trough extends from the central Bay of Campeche to 24N92.5W then NE to near 27N87W. A sharp and deep-layered upper trough across the NW Gulf is producing divergent flow aloft across much of the southern Gulf, and supporting scattered moderate convection northwest of the surface trough from 22N to 26N between 91.5W and 96W. Scattered moderate to strong convection extends from the Yucatan to 25N between 85W and 88.5W. Light to gentle east to southeast winds prevail E of the surface trough, veering southeast into the Florida Big Bend. Seas across this area are 1 to 3 ft. Light and variable winds are elsewhere north of 26N, while gentle to locally moderate NE to N winds prevail across the SW Gulf where seas are 1 to 2 ft. For the forecast, moderate to fresh northerly winds are expected near Veracruz through Tue night, then winds are forecast to increase to between fresh and strong Wed trough Fri night as the weak trough persists, then low pressure will move into the Gulf of Mexico during the latter portion of this week. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail trough Fri. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Convergent trade winds behind the tropical wave are combining with divergent flow aloft to generate widely scattered moderate to strong convection that has shifted from the northwestern basin across the the Yucatan Channel and coastal waters of Cuba. An upper-level low center near 16N76W is inducing widely scattered thunderstorms across the central basin, from 14N to 17N between 72W and 75W. Refer to the Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections for additional convection. Moderate to locally fresh SE winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are present across the northwestern and west-central basin. Light to gentle winds and 1 to 2 ft seas are noted near the ABC Islands, Costa Rica and Panama. Gentle E to SE winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea. For the forecast, broad low pressure continues across the western Caribbean this evening, and is expected to persist for the next few days as a tropical wave moves into the area. Environmental conditions appear to be conducive for gradual tropical development, and a tropical depression could form around the middle part of this week. This system is then expected to move into the Gulf of Mexico during the latter portion of this week. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will persist across the basin through Fri. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section on Tropical Depression Joyce and Tropical Storm Kirk. Refer to the Special Features, Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections on convection in the Atlantic Basin. A 1015 mb high northeast of the Bahamas is sustaining light to gentle winds and seas of 2 to 6 ft in mixed moderate swells north of 20N between 55W and the Florida-Georgia coast. Outside the direct influence of Joyce, moderate to fresh winds with locally strong E to SE to S winds and 6 to 8 ft seas exist north of 20N between 35W and 55W. To the south from 10N to 20N between 40W and the Lesser Antilles, light to gentle winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft in mixed moderate swells are present. Farther east outside the influence from Kirk, moderate to fresh E to SE to SW winds and seas of 6 to 9 ft dominate from 10N to 20N between 35W and 40W. Gentle to moderate southerly and monsoonal westerly winds with 5 to 7 ft seas in mixed moderate swells prevail for the rest of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast W of 55W, weak high pressure will dominate the western and central Atlantic. Under the influence of this high, mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail through mid week. NE swell to 8 ft will briefly impact the far northeastern waters this evening. Newly upgraded Tropical Storm Kirk currently located over the eastern Atlantic could become a major hurricane by Wednesday. Large seas generated by Kirk will reach the eastern forecast waters along 55W Thu through Thu night. $$ Stripling