500 AXNT20 KNHC 010603 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Tue Oct 01 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0540 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...TROPICAL STORM KIRK... The center of Tropical Storm Kirk, at 01/0300 UTC, is close to 14.4N 36.8W. KIRK is moving toward the WNW, or 285 degrees 10 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 50 knots with gusts to 60 knots. Wind speeds of 50 knots are within: 40 nm of the center in the NE quadrant; 0 nm of the center in the SE quadrant; 0 nm of the center in the SW quadrant; and 0 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. Tropical storm-force winds are within: 100 nm of the center in the NE quadrant; 120 nm of the center in the SE quadrant; 0 nm of the center in the SW quadrant; and 60 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. The sea heights of 12 feet or greater are within: 150 nm of the center in the NE quadrant; 75 nm of the center in the SE quadrant; 60 nm of the center in the SW quadrant; and 150 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. The maximum sea height value is 20 feet. Expect for the next 24 hours or so: strong to near gale-force winds, and rough seas, elsewhere from 09N to 20N between 35W and 40W. Fresh winds are in the remainder of the area that is from 05N to 24N between 30W and 43W. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is from 10N to 17N between 33W and 39W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is in the remainder of the area that is from 05N to 30N between 30W and 43W. ...THE REMNANTS OF JOYCE... The center of the Remnants of JOYCE, at 01/0300 UTC, is close to 23.0N 49.0W. Joyce is moving toward the N, or 360 degrees 05 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 30 knots with gusts to 40 knots. Expect for the next 12 hours or so: strong to near-gale force winds, and rough seas, within 90 nm E semicircle, and 30 nm W semicircle, of the center. Fresh winds are elsewhere within 180 nm of the center in the W semicircle. Moderate to near-rough seas are elsewhere within 360 nm of the center in the E semicircle, and within 180 nm of the center in the W semicircle. Precipitation: scattered strong is within 270 nm of the center in the NE quadrant. A cold front is passing through 31N47W 30N54W, beyond 31N59W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 360 nm to the southeast of the cold front. This precipitation is from 270 nm to the NE of the remnants of JOYCE, and beyond. Rough seas are from 28N northward between 50W and 60W. Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, and the Offshore Waters Forecast, that are issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the websites - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php, for more information. Please, visit www.hurricanes.gov, for the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory, about Kirk and Joyce. ...INVEST LOW PRESSURE CENTER (AL91)... A tropical wave is along 24W/25W, from 15N southward. A 1008 mb low pressure center is along the tropical wave close to 10N, at 01/0000 UTC. Fresh winds are from 08N to 14N between 20W and 30W. Mostly fresh, to some strong, NE to E winds are from 17N to 29N between 20W and 32W. Moderate to near-rough seas are from 18N to 22N between 25W and 30W. Moderate seas are elsewhere between 20W and 30W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 03N to 17N between 16W and 34W. The environmental conditions appear to be conducive for more development. It is likely for a tropical depression to form during the next few days. The forecast movement is westward in the eastern sections of the tropical Atlantic Ocean. The chance of formation into a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours is medium. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 85W/86W, from 20N southward, moving westward 10 knots. The monsoon trough is along 11N74W in Colombia, beyond Nicaragua. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 80W westward. Isolated moderate to locally strong is also between 70W and 80W. This is for the NW Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: it is possible that the environmental conditions may support some gradual development of the tropical wave. It is possible that a tropical depression may form during the next several days. The weather system is forecast to move toward the NW in the NW Caribbean Sea, and in the southern Gulf of Mexico. Anyone who has interests in the northwestern Caribbean Sea, and along the U.S.A. Gulf Coast, should monitor the progress of this system. Please, refer to the website, www.nhc.gov/cyclones/, for details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains borders of Guinea-Bissau and Guinea, to the INVEST-AL91 low pressure center, to 12N30W, and along 12N/13N between 43W and 57W. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is from 07N to 13N between 40W and 50W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean that is from 20N southward from 60W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... Please, refer to the Tropical Waves section, for details about the 85W/86W Caribbean Sea tropical wave, and the possible development into a tropical cyclone with respect to this weather feature. A east-to-west oriented surface ridge is along 27N. Fresh NE winds are within 120 nm to the north of the Yucatan Peninsula. Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder of the Gulf. Slight seas are in the Gulf of Mexico. Fresh to strong NW to N winds and rough seas are expected over the SW Gulf, near the Veracruz area, Tue through Wed night as a trough of low pressure develops over the western Gulf. A tropical depression could form over the next several days over the NW Caribbean. This system is forecast to move into the southern Gulf of Mexico. Interests along the U.S. Gulf Coast should continue to monitor the progress of this system. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail trough Fri. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please, refer to the Tropical Waves section, for details about the 85W/86W Caribbean Sea tropical wave, and the possible development into a tropical cyclone with respect to this weather feature. Moderate or slower winds, and slight are in the Caribbean Sea. The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at 01/0000 UTC, are: 0.11 in Curacao, and 0.11 in Guadeloupe. This information is from the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located over the southwestern Caribbean Sea are associated with a trough of low pressure. Environmental conditions could support some gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form over the next several days while it moves generally northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the southern Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of development, moderate to fresh winds will affect the SW and NW Caribbean through Fri. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds are expected. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about Tropical Storm Kirk, the remnants of Joyce, and for the INVEST- AL91 low pressure center. A 1015 mb high pressure center is near 28N74W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow is in the Atlantic Ocean from the remnants of Joyce westward. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow is from 21N northward from 43W eastward. A 1022 mb high pressure center is near 33N27W. A second 1022 mb high pressure center is near 35N18W. The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at 01/0000 UTC, are: 0.01 in Bermuda. This information is from the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN. Fresh NE winds are from 24N northward from 20W eastward. Fresh NE winds are from 03N southward between 40W and 50W. Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. Moderate seas are elsewhere from 70W eastward. Slight seas are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean from 70W westward. Weak high pressure will dominate the forecast area. Under the influence of this system mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail through mid week. Kirk is forecast to become a very large major hurricane in the central tropical Atlantic in a few days. Seas generated by Kirk may reach the eastern forecast waters Thu night into Fri. At the same time, a non-tropical low pressure will reach the NE forecast waters, bringing strong winds and rough seas, mainly across the area N of 27N and E of 70W. $$ mt/gr