000 AXNT20 KNHC 011020 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Tue Oct 1 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Kirk is centered near 14.9N 38.0W at 01/0900 UTC or 810 nm W of the Cabo Verde Islands, moving WNW at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Peak seas are 20 ft. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted from 11N to 17N between 34W and 38W. Kirk is moving toward the west-northwest, and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight. A gradual turn toward the northwest is forecast on Wednesday and Thursday. Kirk is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane by tonight and could become a major hurricane on Thursday. Seas 8 ft or greater associated with Kirk are expected to dominate a large area between 35W and 50W by Wed, and between 35W and 55W on Thu. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Kirk NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL91): Showers and thunderstorms show some signs of organization in association with a broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions appear conducive for further development of this system, and a tropical depression is very likely to form during the next few days while it moves slowly westward over the eastern tropical Atlantic. This system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation through the next 48 hours, and a high chance through seven days. Please, refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is moving across the western Caribbean. Its axis is along 85W/86W, from 20N southward, moving westward 10 knots. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are near near the wave axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near the Guinea- Bissau/Guinea border and continues westward to a 1008 mb low pressure (AL91)located near 10N25W to 12N30W. Then, it resumes W of T.S. Kirk and extends from 12N43W to 12N57W. Aside for the convection associated with AL91 and T.S. Kirk, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 12N between 40W and 50W. Scattered moderate convection are along coastal waters of Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea. GULF OF MEXICO... A weak pressure pattern persists across the Gulf basin. A sharp and deep-layered upper trough across the NW Gulf is supporting a band-like of showers and thunderstorms over the eastern Gulf, including the Yucatan Channel. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen over the western Gulf. Recent satellite derived wind data indicate mainly light to gentle winds across the basin, with the exception of moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds just N and NW of the Yucatan Peninsula, and in the eastern Bay of Campeche. Seas are 3 to 4 ft within these winds, and 1 to 3 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, fresh to strong NW to N winds and rough seas are expected over the SW Gulf, including the Veracruz area, through at least Fri as a trough of low pressure develops over the western Gulf. A tropical depression could form over the next several days over the NW Caribbean. This system is forecast to move northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the southern Gulf of Mexico. Interests along the U.S. Gulf Coast should continue to monitor the progress of this system. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail trough Fri. Looking ahead, increasing winds and building seas are forecast for the northern Gulf during the upcoming weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper-level low spinning over the western Caribbean, combined with a tropical wave with axis along 85W/86W, is helping to induce scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms much the waters N of 11N and W of 72W. This convective activity is more more concentrated near the Cayman Islands. Low-topped trade wind showers are noted over the eastern Caribbean. A weak pressure gradient dominates the basin supporting mainly light to gentle winds. Seas are generally 2 to 4 ft, highest in the NW Caribbean, including the Yucatan Channel. For the forecast, disorganized showers and thunderstorms located over the southwestern Caribbean Sea are associated with a trough of low pressure. Environmental conditions could support some gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form over the next several days while it moves generally northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the southern Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of development, moderate to fresh winds will affect the SW and NW Caribbean through Fri. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds are expected. Looking ahead, seas generated by tropical cyclone Kirk may reach the offshore waters E of the Leeward Islands Fri night into Sat. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section on Tropical Storm Kirk and invest area AL91. At 0300 UTC, the last public advisory was issued by the National Hurricane Center on Joyce. The remnants of Joyce are expected to merge with a mid-latitude trough and accelerate northeastward during the next couple of days. Scatterometer data indicate fresh to strong winds associated with the remnant low of Joyce, with seas of 8 to 9 ft within about 90 nm E semicircle of the low center. A cluster of moderate to isolated strong convection is within 210 nm NE quadrant of the remnant low of Joyce. Over the western Atlantic, a weak high pressure of 1015 mb located northeast of the Bahamas continues to dominate the region. This feature supports light to gentle winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft W of 65W. A 1024 mb high pressure located mid-way between the Madeira and the Azores Islands extends a ridge across the eastern Atlantic, particularly N of 20N and E of 40W. A moderate to fresh anticyclonic flow is observed under the influence of this system. Winds increase to fresh to strong speeds between the Canary Islands based on satellite derived wind data. E of 65W, seas are 5 to 7 ft outside of the tropical systems. For the forecast W of 55W, weak high pressure will dominate the forecast area. Under the influence of this system mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail through mid week. Kirk is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane by tonight and could become a major hurricane on Thursday. Seas generated by Kirk may reach the eastern forecast waters Thu night into Fri. At the same time, a non-tropical low pressure will reach the NE forecast waters, bringing fresh to strong winds and rough seas, mainly across the area N of 27N and E of 70W. $$ GR