723 AXNT20 KNHC 011707 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Tue Oct 1 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Kirk is centered near 15.3N 39.2W at 01/1500 UTC or 880 nm W of the Cabo Verde Islands, moving WNW at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Peak seas are 20 ft. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted from 10N to 18N between 34W and 42W. Kirk's west-northwestward motion is expected to continue, with a gradual turn more northwestward over the next several days. Additional strengthening is anticipated and Kirk should become a hurricane by tonight, and a major hurricane in a couple of days. Seas 8 ft or greater associated with Kirk are expected to dominate a large area between 35W and 50W by Wed, and between 35W and 60W on Thu. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Kirk NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL91): Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs organization in association with a broad area of low pressure and a tropical wave along 26W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 08N to 14N between 24W and 31W. Environmental conditions appear conducive for further development of this system, and a tropical depression is expected to form during the next couple of days while it moves slowly westward over the eastern tropical Atlantic. This system has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation through the next 48 hours. Please, refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on the tropical wave associated with AL91. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near the Mauritania- Senegal border and continues southwestward to a 1007 mb low pressure (AL91) located near 10N26W, and then west-northwestward to 12N31W. Then, it resumes W of T.S. Kirk and extends from 13N44W to 12N56W. Aside for the convection associated with AL91 and T.S. Kirk, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 12N between 38W and 54W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are also between the Equator and 10N from the African coast to about 45W. The eastern extension of the East Pacific monsoon trough enters the southwestern Caribbean from Mexico and extends to the coast of Colombia. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are near and in the vicinity of the monsoon trough. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough is analyzed from near Tampa Bay southwestward across the Gulf to the eastern Bay of Campeche. Scattered moderate convection is observed along and near the southern half of this trough axis. Another surface trough is analyzed from the western Bay of Campeche northwestward into the far western Gulf, with scattered moderate convection near this trough axis as well. Recent satellite derived wind data indicate mainly light to gentle winds across the basin, with the exception of moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds just N and NW of the Yucatan Peninsula, and in the eastern Bay of Campeche. Seas are 3 to 4 ft within these winds, and 1 to 3 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, fresh to strong NW to N winds and rough seas are expected over the SW Gulf, including the Veracruz area, through at least Fri as a trough of low pressure develops over the western Gulf. A tropical depression could form over the next several days over the NW Caribbean. This system is forecast to move northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the southern Gulf of Mexico. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail trough Fri. Looking ahead, increasing winds and building seas are forecast for the northern Gulf during the upcoming weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper-level low spinning over the western Caribbean is helping to induce scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over much the waters N of 11N and W of 71W. A weak pressure gradient dominates the basin supporting mainly light to gentle E winds. Seas are generally 2 to 4 ft, except for the NW Caribbean where seas are 3 to 5 ft. For the forecast, disorganized showers and thunderstorms located over the southwestern Caribbean Sea are associated with a trough of low pressure. Environmental conditions could support some gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form towards the end of this week or this weekend while it moves generally northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and into the Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of development, moderate to fresh winds will affect the SW and NW Caribbean through Fri. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds are expected. Looking ahead, seas generated by tropical cyclone Kirk may reach the offshore waters E of the Leeward Islands Fri night into Sat. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section on Tropical Storm Kirk and invest area AL91. A 1008 mb surface low, associated with the remnants of Tropical Storm Joyce, is located near 23N49W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 44W to 50W across the waters north of 20N. Scatterometer data indicate fresh to strong winds associated with the remnant low of Joyce, with seas of 8 to 9 ft within about 90 nm E semicircle of the low center. Over the western Atlantic, a weak high pressure of 1014 mb located northeast of the Bahamas continues to dominate the region. This feature supports light to gentle winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft W of 55W. A 1024 mb high pressure located midway between the Madeira and the Azores Islands extends a ridge across the eastern Atlantic, particularly N of 20N and E of 50W. A moderate to fresh anticyclonic flow is observed under the influence of this system. E of 65W, seas are 5 to 7 ft outside of the tropical systems. For the forecast W of 55W, weak high pressure will support light to gentle variable winds and slight to moderate seas S of 28N through Thu. N of 28N, gentle to moderate W to NW winds will dominate as a low pressure develops N of the area and moves eastward through Thu before intensifying Thu night. The low will then shift SE and enter the NE offshore waters Fri night along with fresh to locally strong winds and rough seas. Otherwise, Tropical Storm Kirk near 15.3N 39.2W at 11 AM EDT, will strengthen to a hurricane near 16.0N 40.7W this evening. Rough seas generated by Kirk may reach the eastern forecast waters Thu night into the weekend. $$ Adams