000 AXNT20 KNHC 012307 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Wed Oct 2 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Newly upgraded Hurricane Kirk is centered near 16.2N 40.1W at 2100 UTC, or about 1070 nm W of the Cabo Verde Islands, moving NW at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Seas of 12 ft and greater extend outward to 270 nm across the N semicircle and and 180 nm across the south semicircle, with peak seas estimated at 27 ft. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted from 13N to 19N between 36W and 43W. Kirk is expected to maintain a northwest motion over the next several days. Additional strengthening is anticipated and Kirk should become a major hurricane in a couple of days. Seas 8 ft or greater associated with Kirk are expected to dominate a large area between 35W and 50W by Wed, and between 35W and 60W on Thu. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Kirk NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL91): Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of improving organization in association with a broad area of surface low pressure and a tropical wave along 26W. A 1007 mb surface low is analyzed near 11N26W, where fresh to strong SW to S winds and seas to 8 ft are within 75 nm of the center. Scattered moderate to strong convection is observed from 08N to 14N between 24W and 30W. Environmental conditions appear conducive for further development of this system, and a tropical depression is expected to form during the next couple of days while it moves slowly westward over the eastern tropical Atlantic. This system has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation through the next 48 hours. Please, refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on the tropical wave associated with AL91. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean along the Senegal coast near 15.5N17W and continues southwestward to a 1007 mb low pressure (AL91) located near 11N26W, and then west-northwestward to 12N32W. It then resumes SW of Kirk near 13N44W and extends to 11.5N57W. Aside for the convection associated with AL91 and Kirk, scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 11N between 16W and 32W, while scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 08N to 13N between 36W and 53W. The eastern extension of the East Pacific monsoon trough enters the southwestern Caribbean from central Nicaragua and extends to the NW coast of Colombia. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are along the coasts near and in the vicinity of the monsoon trough. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough is analyzed from near Tampa Bay southwestward across the Gulf to the eastern Bay of Campeche. Scattered moderate to strong convection is observed S of 26N between 86W and 92W. Another surface trough is analyzed from the western Bay of Campeche northwestward into the far western Gulf, with scattered moderate isolated strong convection along and within 120 nm E of this trough as well. Recent satellite scatterometer wind data indicate mainly gentle to moderate N to NE winds across the basin to the west of the trough Tampa Bay, with the exception of moderate to locally fresh N to NW winds near Veracruz, Mexico in the western Bay of Campeche. Seas are generally 2 to 3 ft across the western basin, 1 to 2 ft across the southeast part, and 4 to 5 ft near the coast of Veracruz. For the forecast, fresh to strong NW to N winds and rough seas are expected over the SW Gulf, including the Veracruz area, through at least Fri as a trough of low pressure develops over the western Gulf. A tropical depression could form over the next several days over the NW Caribbean. This system is forecast to move northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the southern Gulf of Mexico. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail trough Fri. Looking ahead, increasing winds and building seas are forecast for the northern Gulf during the upcoming weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper-level low spinning over the northwestern Caribbean is helping to induce scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over much the waters N of 13N between 75W and 83W. A weak pressure gradient dominates the basin supporting mainly light to gentle E winds. Seas are generally 2 to 4 ft, except for the NW Caribbean where seas are 3 to 5 ft in moderate E-SE winds. For the forecast, disorganized showers and thunderstorms located over the southwestern Caribbean Sea are associated with a trough of low pressure. Environmental conditions could support some gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form towards the end of this week or this weekend while it moves generally northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and into the Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of development, moderate to fresh winds will affect the SW and NW Caribbean through Fri. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds are expected. Looking ahead, seas generated by tropical cyclone Kirk will reach the offshore waters E of the Leeward Islands Thu evening through Sat. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section on Hurricane Kirk and invest area AL91. A 1007 mb surface low, associated with the remnants of Tropical Storm Joyce, is located near 24N50W. Isolated mild thunderstorms are across the NE semicircle of this system. Scattered moderate convection is observed N of 28N from 40W to 45W. Scatterometer data indicate fresh to strong winds associated with the remnant low of Joyce, with seas of 8 to 9 ft within about 150 nm N semicircle of the low center, and then extend northeastward to beyond 31N42W, where northerly swell is mixing with SE waves. Over the western Atlantic, a weak high pressure of 1015 mb located northeast of the Bahamas continues to produce a broad and weak ridge dominating the region W of 55W. This feature supports light to gentle winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft W of 55W. A 1021 mb high pressure located midway between the Madeira and the Azores Islands extends a ridge SW across the eastern Atlantic, N of 20N and E of 50W. A moderate to fresh anticyclonic flow is observed under the influence of this system. E of 65W, seas are 5 to 7 ft outside of the tropical systems. For the forecast W of 55W, weak high pressure will support light to gentle variable winds and slight to moderate seas S of 28N through Thu. N of 28N, gentle to moderate W to NW winds will dominate as a low pressure develops N of the area and moves eastward through Thu before intensifying Thu night. The low will then shift SE and enter the NE offshore waters Fri night along with fresh to locally strong winds and rough seas. Otherwise, Hurricane Kirk well E of the area near 16.2N 40.1W at 5 PM EDT, will move NW and continue to strengthen into end of the week. Rough seas and resultant swell generated by Kirk will reach the eastern forecast waters Thu night and persist into the weekend. $$ Stripling