000 AXNT20 KNHC 020545 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Wed Oct 2 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...HURRICANE KIRK... The center of Hurricane Kirk, at 02/0300 UTC, is close to 16.7N 40.8W. KIRK is moving toward the NW, or 310 degrees 11 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 65 knots with gusts to 80 knots. Hurricane-force wind speeds are within: 25 nm of the center in the NE quadrant; 0 nm of the center in the SE quadrant; within 0 nm of the center in the SW quadrant; and within 0 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. Winds of 50 knots are within: 60 nm of the center in the NE quadrant; 40 nm of the center in the SE quadrant; 0 nm of the center in the SW quadrant; and 40 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. Tropical storm-force winds are within: 170 nm of the center in the NE quadrant; 170 nm of the center in the SE quadrant; 70 nm of the center in the SW quadrant; and 130 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. The sea heights of 12 feet or greater are within: 240 nm of the center in the NE quadrant; 270 nm of the center in the SE quadrant; 90 nm of the center in the SW quadrant; and 210 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. The maximum sea height value is 28 feet. Expect for the next 24 hours or so: strong to near gale-force winds, and rough seas, elsewhere from 10N to 22N between 35W and 45W. Moderate to fresh anticyclonic wind flow is elsewhere from 20N northward between 30W and 50W. Strong SW winds also are from 10N to 13N between 40W and 45W. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is within 210 nm of the center in the NW quadrant; and within 180 nm of the center in the SE quadrant. Scattered moderate to strong is from 10N to 14N between 40W and 50W. Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, and the Offshore Waters Forecast, that are issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the websites - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php, for more information. Please, visit www.hurricanes.gov, for the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory, about Kirk. ...INVEST LOW PRESSURE CENTER (AL91)... A tropical wave is along 26W/27W, from 15N southward. A 1007 mb low pressure center is along the tropical wave close to 11N. Moderate to rough seas are between 20W and 40W from 26N southward. Moderate to fresh anticyclonic winds are in the remainder of the area that is from 16N northward from 40W eastward, away from Hurricane Kirk and away from the INVEST-AL91 low pressure center. Precipitation: scattered strong is within 180 nm of the center in the W quadrant. The environmental conditions appear to be conducive for more development. A tropical depression is expected to form during the next day or so. The forecast movement is slowly westward in the eastern sections of the tropical Atlantic Ocean. The chance of formation into a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours is high. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Please, refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the INVEST-AL91 low pressure center. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains borders of Senegal and Gambia, to the INVEST-AL91 low pressure center, to 10N32W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is in the remainder of the area that is from 02N to 20N from 35W eastward, and in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean that is from 20N southward from 60W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... This information is for the northwestern Caribbean Sea and for the Gulf of Mexico: Broad low pressure is producing a large area of convective precipitation, that covers the areas that are from the southwestern Caribbean Sea into the southern Gulf of Mexico. It is possible that the environmental conditions may support some gradual development of this system. It is possible that a tropical depression may form toward the end of the week or during the weekend, as the broader disturbance moves fully into the Gulf of Mexico. Anyone who has interests along the U.S.A. Gulf Coast should continue to monitor the progress of this weather system. A surface trough is along 28N86W 22N91W, to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico, and northwestward beyond 20N100W in the interior sections of Mexico. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong covers the areas that are from 16N in Guatemala to 23N in the SW Gulf of Mexico between 90W and 97W, including in the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is elsewhere from 21N in the Yucatan Channel to 28N from 85W westward. Strong to near gale-force NW winds are from 23N southward from 95W westward. The forecast is for the sea heights to build in this area from moderate to near-rough. Mostly fresh to some strong NE winds are elsewhere from 27N southward from 90W westward. Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder of the Gulf. Slight seas are in the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico. A broad trough of low pressure is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms from the southwestern Caribbean Sea into the southern Gulf of Mexico. Fresh to strong NW to N winds and rough seas are expected W of the trough over the SW Gulf, including the Veracruz area, through at least Fri. Environmental conditions could support some gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form towards the end of the week or over the weekend as the broader disturbance moves fully into the Gulf of Mexico. Interests along the U.S. Gulf Coast should continue to monitor the progress of this system. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail trough Fri. Looking ahead, increasing winds and building seas are forecast for the northern Gulf during the upcoming weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... This information is for the northwestern Caribbean Sea and for the Gulf of Mexico: Broad low pressure is producing a large area of convective precipitation, that covers the areas that are from the southwestern Caribbean Sea into the southern Gulf of Mexico. It is possible that the environmental conditions may support some gradual development of this system. It is possible that a tropical depression may form toward the end of the week or during the weekend, as the broader disturbance moves fully into the Gulf of Mexico. Anyone who has interests along the U.S.A. Gulf Coast should continue to monitor the progress of this weather system. The monsoon trough is along 11N74W beyond Nicaragua. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is between 75W and 85W, and in the western half of Honduras. Mostly moderate or slower winds, and slight seas are in the Caribbean Sea. An exception is for fresh to strong SE winds within 120 nm of the coast of Honduras between 84W and 86W. The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at 02/0000 UTC, are: 0.13 in Guadeloupe. This information is from the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN. A broad trough of low pressure is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms from the southwestern Caribbean Sea into the southern Gulf of Mexico. Environmental conditions could support some gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form towards the end of the week or over the weekend as the broader disturbance moves fully into the Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of development, moderate to fresh winds will affect the SW and NW Caribbean through Fri. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds are expected. Looking ahead, seas generated by tropical cyclone Kirk may reach the offshore waters E of the Leeward Islands Fri night into Sat. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about Hurricane Kirk, and for the INVEST-AL91 low pressure center. Fresh to strong northerly winds are from 17N to 23N from 23W eastward. Mostly fresh to some moderate NE winds are elsewhere from 16N northward from 27W eastward. A 1008 mb low pressure center, the remnants of Joyce, is near 24N51W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is from 24N to 26N between 48W and 51W. A dissipating stationary front passes through 31N44W 29N42W beyond 31N60W. Moderate seas are in the remainder of the area that is from 20N northward between 40W and 60W. Moderate or slower winds are from 23N northward from the remnants of Joyce westward, and from 23N southward from 50W westward. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are from 05N southward from 35W eastward, and elsewhere from 10N southward between 35W and 50W away from Hurricane Kirk. A 1013 mb high pressure center is near 26N75W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow is in the Atlantic Ocean from the remnants of Joyce westward. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow is from 20N northward from 35W eastward. A 1024 mb high pressure center is near 34N24W. Slight seas are from 23N southward between 67W and 70W, and elsewhere from 70W westward. Moderate seas are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean, away from Hurricane Kirk, and away from the INVEST-AL91 low pressure center. Weak high pressure will dominate the forecast area. Under the influence of this system mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail through Wed night. Seas generated by hurricane Kirk may reach the eastern forecast waters Thu night into Fri. At the same time, a non-tropical low pressure will reach the NE forecast waters, bringing fresh to strong winds and rough seas, mainly across the area N of 27N and E of 70W. $$ mt/gr