000 AXNT20 KNHC 021716 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Wed Oct 2 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1630 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Kirk is centered near 18.0N 43.0W at 02/1500 UTC or 1090 nm W of the Cabo Verde Islands, moving NW at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. Peak seas are estimated at 30 ft. Seas up to 13 ft were observed in Kirk's western semicircle at 1300 UTC this morning from the Sentinel-6A altimeter. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted from 18N-21N between 41W-45W and scattered moderate to isolated strong 12N-18N between 39W-46W. The NW motion is expected over the next several days with a gradual turn more to the north- northwest by the end of the week. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Kirk is forecast to become a major hurricane tomorrow. Because of the large size of Kirk, seas 8 ft or greater are expected to occur within 480 NM in its northern semicircle and 240 NM in its southern semicircle for the next couple of days. Tropical Depression Thirteen is centered near 10.6N 29.1W at 02/1500 UTC or 370 nm SW of the Southernmost Cabo Verde Islands, moving W at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Peak seas are around 10 ft. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring from 08N-13N between 27W-33W. This westward motion is expected for the next day or so followed by a turn more west-northwestward by the weekend. Gradual strengthening is forecast, and the depression could become a tropical storm by tonight. A Gale Warning has been issued for a portion of the SW Gulf, including offshore Veracruz as a tight pressure gradient between low pressure in the Bay of Campeche and high pressure to its NW is allowing for gale force winds to exist there. Peak winds are NW 35 kt with peak seas of 10 ft in the SW Gulf near 19N96W. Ship WGAE reported 30 kt NNW winds for a few hours this morning in the SW Gulf. The gale-force winds are expected to diminish to near gale tonight through Thu morning and to fresh to strong Thu afternoon and Thu night. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Hurricane Kirk and Tropical Depression Thirteen NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... There are no tropical waves observed across the Atlantic at this time. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic at the coast of Mauritania near 17N16W and extends to a 1006 mb low at 11N29W, and then to 10N36W. After a break induced by Hurricane Kirk, the monsoon trough resumes at 15N50W and extends to 10N60W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring from 08N-13N between 27W-33W. GULF OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section on the Gale Warning in the SW Gulf. A broad 1006 mb low is centered in the SW Gulf near 19N94W with a trough extending northeastward to the Florida peninsula near 27N82W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted south of 23N and west of 90W. As of 1500 UTC, a weak cold front has entered the NW Gulf from 30N94W to 26N96W just offshore of Texas. Aside from strong to gale force winds noted in the Gale Warning for the SW Gulf, winds are moderate to fresh elsewhere with seas 2-5 ft. For the forecast, a Gale Warning has been issued for a portion of the SW Gulf, including offshore Veracruz as a tight pressure gradient between low pressure in the Bay of Campeche and high pressure to its NW is allowing for gale force winds to exist there. These winds are expected to diminish to near gale tonight through Thu morning and to fresh to strong Thu afternoon and Thu night. Otherwise, a broad trough of low pressure is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms from the southwestern Caribbean Sea into the southern Gulf of Mexico. Environmental conditions could support some gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form over the weekend as the broader disturbance moves fully into the Gulf of Mexico. Interests along the U.S. Gulf Coast should continue to monitor the progress of this system. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail trough Fri. Looking ahead, increasing winds and building seas are forecast for the NE and north-central Gulf during the upcoming weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper-level trough over the NW Caribbean is interacting with the eastward extension of the Pacific's monsoon trough to produce scattered moderate and isolated strong convection from 16N-21N between 78W-82W. Away from these thunderstorms, winds are light to gentle across the whole Caribbean due to a weak north-south pressure gradient. Seas are 2-4 ft. For the forecast, the broad trough of low pressure is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms from the southwestern Caribbean Sea into the southern Gulf of Mexico. Environmental conditions could support some gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form over the weekend as the broader disturbance moves fully into the Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of development, moderate to fresh E to SE winds will affect the NW Caribbean through Fri. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds are expected. Looking ahead, seas generated by hurricane Kirk may reach the offshore waters E of the Leeward Islands Fri night into Sat. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section on Hurricane Kirk and Tropical Depression Thirteen. Aside from Kirk and Thirteen, the most notable feature over the Atlantic waters is a surface trough from 31N57W to 30N53W causing isolated moderate convection north of 29N between 50W-60W. Over the western waters, winds are moderate or weaker with seas 4-6 ft due to a flat pressure gradient. In the eastern Atlantic, a 1023 mb Azores High is centered near 36N24W. Equatorward of the high, the trades are moderate to fresh with seas 5-7 ft. For the forecast W of 55W, weak high pressure will continue to dominate the forecast region producing mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas through this evening. A low pressure moving eastward N of the area will bring fresh to strong NW to N winds and rough seas, mainly across the waters N of 27N and E of 70W beginning tonight. Strengthening Hurricane Kirk well east- southeast of the offshore zones will move NW during the next few days, passing to the E of the NE forecast waters Fri night through Sat night. Rough to very rough seas are expected during the upcoming weekend over most of the waters ENE of the Bahamas. $$ Landsea