000 AXNT20 KNHC 022328 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Thu Oct 3 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Kirk is centered near 18.9N 44.0W at 02/2100 UTC, or 1165 nm ENE of the Lesser Antilles, moving NW at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt. Peak seas are estimated at 31 ft. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted from 17N-21N between 42W-46W and scattered moderate to isolated strong 12.5N-17N between 40W-47W. The NW motion is expected over the next several days with a gradual turn more to the north-northwest by the end of the week. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Kirk is forecast to become a major hurricane tomorrow. Because of the large size of Kirk, seas 8 ft or greater are expected to occur within 480 NM in its northern semicircle and 240 NM in its southern semicircle for the next couple of days. Tropical Depression Thirteen is centered near 10.5N 29.7W at 02/2100 UTC, or 465 nm SW of the Southernmost Cabo Verde Islands, moving W at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Peak seas are around 10 ft. Scattered moderate to strong convection is occurring from 07.5N-13.5N between 27W-33W. This westward motion is expected for the next day or so followed by a turn more west- northwestward by the weekend. Gradual strengthening is forecast, and the depression could become a tropical storm by tonight. A Gale Warning has been issued for a portion of the SW Gulf, S of 20N and within 90 nm of the coast of Veracruz, as a tight pressure gradient between low pressure in the Bay of Campeche and high pressure to its NW is forcing gale winds there. Peak winds are NW 35 kt with peak seas of 12 ft in the SW Gulf near 19N95.5W. Ship WGAE reported 30 kt NNW winds for a few hours this morning in the SW Gulf. The gale-force winds are expected to diminish to near gale tonight through Thu morning and to fresh to strong Thu afternoon and Thu night. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Hurricane Kirk and Tropical Depression Thirteen NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... There are no tropical waves observed across the Atlantic Basin at this time. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic at the coast of Mauritania near 17N16W and extends to a 1006 mb low at 10.5N29W. After a break induced by Hurricane Kirk, the monsoon trough resumes at 15N50W and extends to 10N60W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is occurring from 03N-10N between 17W-23W, from 03N-17N between 22W-32W, and from 09N-14N between 38W-52W. GULF OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section on the Gale Warning in the SW Gulf. A broad 1008 mb low is centered in the SW Gulf near 19.5N93.5W with a trough extending northeastward to the Florida peninsula just south of Tampa Bay. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted south of 24N and west of 88W, and from 24N to 28N between 86W and 92W. A weak cold front has entered the NW Gulf from SW Louisiana to just offshore of Brownsville, Texas. Aside from strong to gale force winds noted in the Gale Warning for the SW Gulf, moderate to fresh NE to N winds prevail elsewhere W of the trough, with seas 2-6 ft. Gentle to moderate SE winds prevail across the southeastern Gulf to the SE of the trough, where seas are 1-2 ft. For the forecast, gale-force winds over a portion of the SW Gulf within 90 nm offshore of Veracruz will diminish to just below gale force early tonight, then diminish to fresh to strong Thu, with little change through Sat. Seas to around 12 ft with these winds will slowly subside through the end of the week. Otherwise, a broad trough of low pressure is producing disorganized areas of showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Environmental conditions could support some gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form over the weekend as the broader disturbance moves fully northward into the Gulf of Mexico. Interests along the U.S. Gulf Coast should continue to monitor the progress of this system. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail trough Fri. Looking ahead, increasing winds and building seas are forecast for the NE and north-central Gulf during the upcoming weekend, and for just about the entire basin early next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper-level trough over the NW Caribbean is interacting with the eastward extension of the Pacific's monsoon trough to produce scattered moderate and isolated strong convection from 16.5N-21N between 76W-85W. Moderate SE winds generally prevail across the NW Caribbean W of 80W, where seas are 2-4 ft. Across the rest of the basin, winds are light to gentle due to a weak north-south pressure gradient. Seas are 1-3 ft. For the forecast, a broad trough of low pressure is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms from the western Caribbean Sea into the southern Gulf of Mexico. Environmental conditions could support some gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form over the weekend as this disturbance moves northward and fully into the Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of development, moderate to fresh E to SE winds will affect the NW Caribbean through Fri. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds are expected. Looking ahead, seas generated by hurricane Kirk will reach the offshore waters E of the Leeward Islands Thu evening and prevail into Sat. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section on Hurricane Kirk and Tropical Depression Thirteen. Aside from Kirk and Thirteen, the most notable feature over the Atlantic waters is a surface trough from 31N45W to 27N51W causing widely scattered moderate convection north of 27N between 45W-53W. Over the western waters, winds are moderate or weaker with seas 4-6 ft in NE swell due to a flat pressure gradient. In the eastern Atlantic, a 1022 mb Azores High is centered near 34N26W. Equatorward of the high, the trades are moderate to fresh with seas 5-8 ft. For the forecast W of 55W, weak high pressure will remain just N of the area through the next few days. Low pressure N of the area will move eastward into the western Atlantic, and bring fresh to strong NW to N winds and rough seas, mainly across the waters N of 27N and E of 70W beginning tonight. Strengthening Hurricane Kirk well E-SE of the offshore zones will move NW during the next few days, passing to the E of the NE forecast waters Fri night through Sat night. NE swell from the NW Atlantic and easterly swell from Kirk will combine to produce rough to very rough seas during the upcoming weekend over most of the waters E through NE of the Bahamas. These conditions are forecast to subside early next week. $$ Stripling