000 AXNT20 KNHC 030425 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Thu Oct 3 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0420 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Major Hurricane Kirk is centered near 19.5N 44.5W at 03/0300Z, or 990 nm ENE of the Lesser Antilles, moving NW at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 952 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 110 kt with gusts to 135 kt. Peak seas are estimated at 34 ft. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted from 17N-21N between 42W-46W and scattered moderate to isolated strong 12.5N-17N between 39W-48W. The NW motion is expected to continue over the next day or so with a gradual turn to the north-northwest and north by this weekend. Strengthening is forecast over the next couple of days. Because of the large size of Kirk, seas 8 ft or greater are expected to occur within 420 NM in its northern semicircle and 240 NM in its southern semicircle for the next couple of days. Recently upgraded Tropical Storm Leslie is centered near 10.4N 30.1W at 03/0300, or 430 nm SW of the Southernmost Cabo Verde Islands, moving W at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are around 10 ft. Scattered moderate to strong convection is occurring from 07.5N-13.5N between 27W-34W. A continued slow westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days. Steady strengthening is forecast, and Leslie is expected to become a hurricane in a couple of days. A Gale Warning is in effect for a portion of the SW Gulf, S of 21N W of 95W, as a tight pressure gradient between low pressure in the Bay of Campeche and high pressure to its NW is forcing gale winds there. Peak winds are 35 kt with peak seas of 12 ft in the SW Gulf near 19N95.5W. The gale-force winds are expected to diminish to near gale tonight through Thu morning. These winds are expected to diminish to fresh to strong Thu, with little change through Sat. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Hurricane Kirk and Tropical Depression Thirteen NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... There are no tropical waves observed across the Atlantic Basin at this time. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 18N16W and extends to 11N22W. After a break induced by Hurricane Kirk and Tropical Storm Leslie, the monsoon trough resumes at 15N50W and extends to 11N59W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is occurring from 06N-10N between 18W-22W. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are exiting the coast of Africa south of 13N. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section on the Gale Warning in the SW Gulf. A broad 1006 mb low is centered in the SW Gulf near 19N94W with a trough extending northeastward to 28N86W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted south of 23N and west of 88W, and from 27N to 29N between 85W and 91W. Aside from strong to gale force winds noted in the Gale Warning for the SW Gulf, moderate to fresh NE to N winds prevail elsewhere W of the trough, with seas 3-7 ft. Elsewhere, mainly gentle and variable winds prevail with seas 1-3 ft. For the forecast, gale force winds over a portion of the SW Gulf that includes within 60 nm offshore Veracruz will diminish to just below gale force early tonight. These winds are expected to diminish to fresh to strong Thu, with little change through Sat. Seas to around 12 ft with these winds will slowly subside through the end of the week. Otherwise, disorganized showers and thunderstorms over portions of the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico are associated with a trough of low pressure. Environmental conditions could support some gradual development of this system over the Gulf of Mexico this weekend while the system drifts eastward. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains could occur over portions of Mexico during the next few days and over portions of the Florida Peninsula by the weekend. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper-level trough and a surface trough over the NW Caribbean are producing scattered moderate convection from 16.5N-20N between 79-86W. Moderate SE winds generally prevail across the NW Caribbean W of 80W, where seas are 2-4 ft. Across the rest of the basin, winds are light to gentle due to a weak north-south pressure gradient. Seas are 1-3 ft. For the forecast, disorganized showers and thunderstorms over portions of the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico are associated with a trough of low pressure. Environmental conditions could support some gradual development of this system over the Gulf of Mexico this weekend while the system drifts eastward. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains could occur over portions of Mexico during the next few days and over portions of the Florida Peninsula by the weekend. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds are expected. Looking ahead, seas generated by hurricane Kirk may reach the offshore waters E of the Leeward Islands Fri night into Sat. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section on Hurricane Kirk and Tropical Storm Leslie. Aside from Kirk and Leslie, the most notable feature over the Atlantic waters is a surface trough from 31N44W to 21N53W causing widely scattered moderate convection north of 26N between 42.5W-52W. Over the western waters, winds are moderate or weaker with seas 5-8 ft in NE swell due to a flat pressure gradient. In the eastern Atlantic, a 1024 mb Azores High is centered near 34N25.5W. Equatorward of the high, the trades are moderate to fresh with seas 5-8 ft. North of 27N and east of 20W winds are fresh to locally strong with seas 7 to 9 ft. For the forecast W of 55W, weak high pressure will remain just N of the area through the next few days. Low pressure moving eastward N of the area is bringing fresh to strong NW to N winds and rough seas, mainly across the waters N of 27N and E of 70W tonight. Strengthening Hurricane Kirk well ESE of the offshore zones will move NW during the next few days, passing to the E of the NE forecast waters Fri night through Sat night. Rough to very rough seas are expected during the upcoming weekend over most of the waters ENE of the Bahamas. These conditions are forecast to subside early next week. $$ KRV