000 AXNT20 KNHC 031035 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Thu Oct 3 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Kirk is centered near 20.0N 45.0W at 03/0900 UTC or 1030 nm E of the Northern Leeward Islands, moving NW at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 955 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 105 kt with gusts to 130 kt. Peak seas are estimated at 35 ft. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted from 12N-24N between 40W-48W. Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or so. Swells generated by Kirk are spreading westward and are expected to reach portions of the Leeward Islands on Friday, Bermuda and the Greater Antilles on Saturday, and the east coast of the United States and the Bahamas on Sunday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office for more details. Tropical Storm Leslie is centered near 10.3N 30.5W at 03/0900 UTC or 450 nm SW of the Southernmost Cabo Verde Islands, moving W at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are around 12 ft within 30 nm in the N semicircle. Scattered moderate to strong convection is occurring from 05N-14N between 26W-35W. Strengthening is anticipated, and Leslie is forecast to become a hurricane in a couple of days. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Hurricane Kirk and Tropical Storm Leslie NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... There are no tropical waves across the Atlantic Basin at this time. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 18N16W and extends to 12N23W. After a break induced by Hurricane Kirk and Tropical Storm Leslie, the monsoon trough resumes at 13N52W to 10N57W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 03N-14N and E of 23W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A broad 1008 mb low is centered in the SW Gulf near 19N94W with a trough extending northeastward to 28N91W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 180 nm on either side of the low/trough. Strong to near-gale force winds prevail S of 20N and W of 95W. Moderate to fresh NE to N winds prevail elsewhere W of the trough, with seas 3-7 ft. Elsewhere, gentle and variable winds prevail with seas 1-3 ft. For the forecast, the strong to near-gale force winds over a portion of the SW Gulf will diminish this evening. Little change is expected through Sat. Rough seas with these winds will slowly subside through the end of the week. Otherwise, disorganized showers and thunderstorms over portions of the Gulf of Mexico are associated with a surface trough. A broad area of low pressure is likely to develop over the Gulf of Mexico late this weekend or early next week, but subsequent tropical or subtropical development could be limited by the system potential interaction with a frontal boundary. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains could occur over portions of Mexico during the next few days and over portions of the Florida Peninsula next week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper-level trough combined with a surface trough over the NW Caribbean are producing scattered moderate convection from 16N-21N between 79-85W. Moderate SE winds prevail across the NW Caribbean W of 80W, where seas are 2-4 ft. Across the rest of the basin, winds are light to gentle due to a weak north-south pressure gradient. Seas are 1-3 ft. For the forecast, disorganized showers and thunderstorms over portions of the Gulf of Mexico are associated with a surface trough. A broad area of low pressure is likely to develop over the Gulf of Mexico late this weekend or early next week, but subsequent tropical or subtropical development could be limited by the system potential interaction with a frontal boundary. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains could occur over portions of Mexico during the next few days and over portions of the Florida Peninsula next week. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds are expected. Looking ahead, seas generated by hurricane Kirk may reach the offshore waters E of the Leeward Islands Fri night into Sat. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section on Hurricane Kirk and Tropical Storm Leslie. Aside from Kirk and Leslie, the most notable feature over the Atlantic waters is a surface trough from 31N44W to 24N51W causing scattered moderate convection north of 26N between 43W-52W. Another trough is analyzed across the W Atlantic from 31N65W to 28N78W. Scattered showers are noted along this trough. Near this trough, winds are moderate or weaker with seas 5-8 ft in NE swell due to a flat pressure gradient. In the eastern Atlantic, a 1024 mb Azores High is centered near 34N25W. Equatorward of the high, the trades are moderate to fresh with seas 5-8 ft. North of 27N and east of 20W winds are fresh to strong with seas 7 to 9 ft. For the forecast W of 55W, weak high pressure will remain just N of the area through the next few days. Low pressure moving eastward N of the area is bringing fresh to strong NW to N winds and rough seas, mainly across the waters N of 27N and E of 70W today. Strengthening Hurricane Kirk well ESE of the offshore zones will move NW during the next few days, passing to the E of the NE forecast waters Fri night through Sat night. Rough to very rough seas are expected during the upcoming weekend over most of the waters ENE of the Bahamas. These conditions are forecast to subside early next week. $$ ERA