000 AXNT20 KNHC 031711 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Thu Oct 3 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Kirk is centered near 20.4N 45.9W at 03/1500 UTC or 980 nm E of the Northern Leeward Islands, moving NW at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 948 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 110 kt with gusts to 135 kt. Peak seas are estimated at 35 ft. 12 ft seas expand out 360 NM in the NE quadrant, 330 NM in the SE quadrant, 270 NM in the SW quadrant, and 300 NM in the NW quadrant. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted from 10N to 23N between 40W and 48W. Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or so. Swells generated by Kirk are spreading westward and are expected to reach portions of the Leeward Islands on Friday, Bermuda and the Greater Antilles on Saturday, and the east coast of the United States and the Bahamas on Sunday. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Tropical Storm Leslie is centered near 10.1N 30.8W at 03/1500 UTC or 470 nm SW of the Southernmost Cabo Verde Islands, moving W at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Peak seas are around 12 ft within 30 nm in the N and E semicircles. Scattered moderate to strong convection is occurring from 05N and 15N between 26W and 35W. Steady strengthening is anticipated, and Leslie is forecast to become a hurricane in a day or so. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Hurricane Kirk and Tropical Storm Leslie NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... There are no tropical waves across the Atlantic Basin at this time. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 18N16W and extends southwestward to 13N21W. After a break induced by Hurricane Kirk and Tropical Storm Leslie, the monsoon trough resumes at 12N51W to 10N55W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 02N to 14N and E of 25W. The far eastern portion of the East Pacific monsoon trough also extends into the far southwestern Caribbean, and is generating scattered moderate convection near the coasts of Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and Panama. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A broad 1007 mb low is centered in the SW Gulf near 19N94W with a trough extending north and northeastward to the northern Gulf coast near the Alabama-Mississippi border. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 200 nm on either side of the low/trough. Fresh to strong winds prevail S of 20N and W of 95W. Moderate to fresh NE to N winds prevail elsewhere W of the trough. Seas W of the trough are 4-7 ft, locally up to 9 ft W of 95W and S of 20N. Recent scatterometer data indicated moderate to fresh S to SE winds immediately east of the trough. The remainder of the basin is experiencing gentle to moderate E to SE winds and slight seas. For the forecast, strong to near-gale force winds over a portion of the SW Gulf that includes within 60 nm offshore Veracruz will diminish to fresh to strong speeds tonight. Little change is expected through Sat. Rough seas with these winds will slowly subside through Fri. Otherwise, disorganized showers and thunderstorms over portions of the Gulf of Mexico are associated with a surface trough. A broad area of low pressure is likely to develop over the Gulf of Mexico late this weekend or early next week, but subsequent tropical or subtropical development could be limited by the system potential interaction with a frontal boundary. Regardless of development, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected over most of the basin this weekend. Fresh to strong winds are expected to begin to materialize over the NE and north-central Gulf late Sat, then spread to the north-central and western Gulf sections by Mon night. Expect building seas with these winds. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper-level trough combined with a surface trough over the NW Caribbean are producing scattered moderate convection from 17N-22N between 80-86W. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds prevail across much of the Caribbean. Seas of 3 to 5 ft are analyzed in the NW Caribbean, with seas of 1 to 3 ft elsewhere across the basin. For the forecast, numerous showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern Caribbean, south of Cuba to near 18N, are associated to a surface trough and an upper-level low that is near the NE part of the Yucatan Peninsula. The activity should persist through Fri before shifting N into the south-central Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Frequent lighting and strong gusty winds producing rough seas may accompany this activity. Otherwise, a weak pressure pattern in place over the region will continue to allow for light to gentle winds across the basin, except over the northwestern Caribbean near the shower and thunderstorm activity. Looking ahead, northeast to east long period swell generated by Hurricane Kirk that is currently over the central Atlantic about 980 nm E of the northern Leeward Islands may reach the northern portion of the Tropical N Atlantic waters and Greater Antilles this weekend. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section on Hurricane Kirk and Tropical Storm Leslie. Away from Kirk and Leslie, a surface trough is located from 22N52 to near 28N52W. This trough, combined with convergent surface flow between Hurricane Kirk, a 1026 mb high centered near 36N25W, and a low near 34N62W is leading to the development of scattered moderate convection between 45W and 51W and north of 27N. Another surface trough extends from the eastern Florida Peninsula into the Florida Straits, leading to scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across these areas as well as across the central and northern Bahamas. To the northeast, another surface trough is analyzed from 27N71W to near 29N66W. Scattered showers are observed near this trough. Away from Kirk and Leslie, anticyclonic winds are observed across much of the Atlantic east of 50W, driven by the 1026 mb high near 36N25W. Recent scatterometer data indicates fresh to strong NE winds north of 19N and east of 22W, including the Canary Islands. Farther west, scatterometer data shows moderate to fresh anticyclonic winds from 22W to 45W north of 25N. An area of moderate to fresh cyclonic flow is observed around the low centered near 34N62W, with moderate to fresh winds extending to as far south as 28N between 60W and 68W. Gentle to moderate winds are occurring across the remainder of the Atlantic in between the aforementioned features. Seas across much of the Atlantic away from these features are generally 4 to 7 ft. For the forecast W of 55W, weak high pressure will remain just N of the area through the next few days. The low pressure near 34N62W will move east through tonight, then south to southwest Fri and into the weekend while weakening. Strengthening Hurricane Kirk well ESE of the offshore zones will move NW during the next few days, passing to the E of the NE forecast waters Fri night through Sat night. Rough to very rough seas are expected during the upcoming weekend over most of the waters ENE of the Bahamas. These conditions are forecast to subside early next week. $$ Adams