000 AXNT20 KNHC 032323 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Fri Oct 4 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Major Hurricane Kirk is centered near 21.1N 46.7W at 03/2100 UTC, or 945 nm ENE of the Northern Leeward Islands, moving NW at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 945 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 115 kt with gusts to 140 kt. Peak seas are estimated at 43 ft. 12 ft seas expand out 300 NM in the NE quadrant, 330 NM in the SE quadrant, 270 NM in the SW quadrant, and 300 NM in the NW quadrant. Satellite imagery this afternoon shows a 20 nm wide eye. Widespread to numerous strong convection is seen from 19N to 22N between 44.5W and 48.5W. Scattered to numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted elsewhere from 16N to 25N between 43W and 49W. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours as Kirk continues to move northwestward, then will turn N and then NE and exit the region Sat through Sat night. Swells generated by Kirk are spreading westward and have begun to reach the Lesser Antilles today, and are expected to reach Bermuda and the Greater Antilles on Friday, the Bahamas on Saturday, and the east coast of the United States early on Sunday. These swells are likely to cause large and powerful surf and life- threatening rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Tropical Storm Leslie is centered near 10.1N 31.5W at 03/2100 UTC, or 500 nm WSW of the Southernmost Cabo Verde Islands, moving W at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas are around 15 ft within 45 nm in the N semicircle. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is occurring from 08N and 12N between 29W and 33W, while scattered moderate to strong convection is elsewhere from 05.5N to 13N between 28W and 35W. Steady strengthening is anticipated, as Leslie begins to turn WNW later tonight and then NW Fri afternoon through the weekend. Leslie is forecast to become a hurricane Friday afternoon. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Hurricane Kirk and Tropical Storm Leslie NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... There are no tropical waves across the Atlantic Basin at this time. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 18N16W and extends southwestward to 11N25W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 04N to 13N and E of 25W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is south of Kirk from 08N to 16N between 41W and 48W. The far eastern portion of the East Pacific monsoon trough also extends into the far southwestern Caribbean, and is generating scattered moderate convection over land and impacting portions of Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Panama and Colombia. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A broad 1008 mb low is centered over the SW Gulf near 22N95.5W, with a trough extending north then northeastward to the northern Gulf coast near the Alabama-Mississippi border, with the trough also extending southeast across the central Bay of Campeche. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 200 nm on either side of the low/trough. Fresh to strong winds northerly prevail S of 20N and W of 95W, where seas are 6 to 9 ft. Moderate to fresh NE to N winds prevail elsewhere W of the trough, where seas are 4-7 ft. Recent scatterometer data indicated moderate to fresh S to SE winds immediately east of the trough. The remainder of the basin is experiencing gentle to moderate E to SE winds and slight seas. For the forecast, strong to near gale force winds over a portion of the SW Gulf W of 94W to the coast near Veracruz, will diminish to fresh to strong speeds tonight. Little change is expected through Sat. Rough seas with these winds will slowly subside through Fri. Otherwise, disorganized showers and thunderstorms over portions of the Gulf of Mexico are associated with a surface trough. A broad area of low pressure is likely to develop over the Gulf of Mexico this weekend or early next week, but subsequent tropical or subtropical development could be limited if the system potentially interacts with a frontal boundary forecast to enter the basin. Regardless of development, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected over most of the basin this weekend. Fresh to strong winds are expected to begin to materialize over the NE and north central Gulf late Sat, then spread to the north-central and western Gulf sections early next week. These winds are expected to reach near gale-force over some sections of central and NE Gulf Tue and Tue night. Expect building seas with these winds. Mariners are urged to monitor the latest forecasts for updated information on winds and seas, especially for conditions from late Sun into early next week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper-level trough combined with a surface trough over the NW Caribbean are producing scattered moderate isolated strong convection from 18N-23N between 77-87W. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds prevail across much of the Caribbean, except moderate to locally fresh SE to S winds across NW portions. Seas of 3 to 5 ft are in the NW Caribbean, and 1 to 3 ft elsewhere across the basin. For the forecast, numerous showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern Caribbean, south of Cuba to near 18N, are associated to a surface trough and an upper-level low that is near the NE part of the Yucatan Peninsula. The activity should persist through Fri before shifting N into the south-central Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Frequent lighting and strong gusty winds producing rough seas may accompany this activity. Otherwise, a weak pressure pattern in place over the region, and will continue to yield light to gentle winds across the basin, except over the northwestern Caribbean near the shower and thunderstorm activity. Looking ahead, northeast to east long period swell generated by Major Hurricane Kirk has begun to reach the Tropical N Atlantic waters this afternoon and the Leeward Islands in recent hours. This swell will gradually increase through Fri across the area, and then more significantly across the NE Caribbean and Passage on Sat. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section on Hurricane Kirk and Tropical Storm Leslie. Away from Kirk and Leslie, a surface trough is located from 20N58W to near 30N51W. Early convection near this boundary has diminished. Elsewhere across the basin, a 1024 mb Azores high is centered near 35N27W, and extends a ridge to the WSW, passing north of Kirk, to near 30N50W. The broad circulation of a 1003 mb low center near 34N60W is leading to the development of scattered moderate convection between 45W and 51W and north of 27N. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are observed across the northern Bahamas and south Florida due to convergent easterly winds across that area. Away from Kirk and Leslie, anticyclonic winds are observed across much of the Atlantic east of 50W. Recent scatterometer data indicated fresh to strong NE winds north of 19N and east of 22W, including the Canary Islands. Farther west, scatterometer data showed moderate to fresh anticyclonic winds from 22W to 45W north of 25N. An area of moderate to fresh cyclonic flow is observed around the low centered near 34N60W, with moderate to fresh winds extending to as far south as 28N between 60W and 68W. Gentle to moderate winds are occurring across the remainder of the Atlantic in between the aforementioned features. Seas across much of the Atlantic away from these features are generally 4 to 7 ft. Seas to 8 ft in swell from Kirk have reached as far W as 55W. For the forecast W of 55W, weak high pressure will remain just N of the area through the next few days. A trough extending from low pressure of 1003 mb that is N of the area near 33N61W southwestward to near 27N72W will move east tonight, then south to southwest Fri and into the weekend while weakening. Strengthening Major Hurricane Kirk well E of the offshore zones will move NW during the next few days, passing to the E of the NE forecast zones Fri night through Sat night. Rough to very rough seas are expected during the upcoming weekend over most of the waters E through NE of the Bahamas. In addition, swells generated from Kirk are expected to reach vicinity of Bermuda during the weekend. Topical Storm Leslie over the far eastern Atlantic is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane and pass E of the offshore waters starting Tue night. $$ Stripling